Photo: Caycee Watson/US Air National Guard


Saturday’s Coverage: Russia “Facing Setbacks” in Attacks on Avdiivka in East


Map: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 1713 GMT:

Ukrainian commanders say Russia has suffered heavy losses in its ground assault near Avdiivka in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

Col. Dmytro Lysyuk, the commander of Ukraine’s 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade, says that despite committing three battalions with armor, artillery, and warplanes, there is “zero chance” that the Russians can break through Ukrainian defenses.

Lysyuk noted that the Russian tactic of sending a lengthy military column into battle also failed in spring 2022 near Kyiv, and near Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine in February.

The Ukrainian military says at least 36 Russian tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed in the first 24 hours, and 102 tanks and 183 armoured vehicles — with 2,840 troops killed — from Tuesday to Sunday.

“The Russians should have realized this a long time ago,” said Lysyuk. “They have not managed to achieve even tactical success….It was an intelligence failure.”


UPDATE 1341 GMT:

Two civilians have been killed and three injured by more than 100 Russian shells across the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

Two guided bombs struck key infrastructure in Kherson city, causing a partial blackout and disruption to water supply.


UPDATE 0743 GMT:

Two civilians have been killed amid Russia’s attacks on Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine.

Having shelled the town for months, the Russians launched a ground assault with three battalions — more than 2,000 soldiers, supported by tanks and other armored vehicles, rotary wing aircraft, and concentrated artillery — on Tuesday.

Avdiivka is just over 20 km (12.5 miles) north of Donetsk city, the center of Russia’s occupation of the region.

The Ukraine military said on Sunday that forces repelled 15 Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Tonenke, and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region amid heavy airstrikes.

Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the military administration in Avdiivka, said Russian shelling has been so intense that emergency crews were unable to recover the dead from demolished buildings.

“They are striking with everything they have. Bouts of shooting, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, mortars and a lot of aircraft,” Barabash said.

In his nightly address to the nation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy cited vdiivka, Maryinka, and other locations in the Donetsk region, “I thank everyone who is holding their positions and destroying Russian troops.”

In the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine, a 54-year-old woman and a 57-year-old man were killed and another woman injured by an overnight airstrike.


UPDATE 0639 GMT:

The Russian human rights group Pervy Otdel has published an open letter challenging the arrest of two lawyers representing the dissident Alexei Navalny.

The detention is the latest move by Russian authorities against Navalny, who survived an assassination attempt with nerve agent poisoning in 2020 but who is now serving 30 1/2 years in one of Russia’s harshest penal colonies.

On Friday, Navalny’s lawyers Igor Sergunin and Alexey Liptser and his former lawyer, Vadim Kobzev, were charged with participation in an “extremist community” because they passed information between Navalny and his supporters.

Pervy Otdel notes:

Lawyers are targeted at the state level in Russia. Their rights under both national and international law are systematically violated. The government prevents defense attorneys from working, intimidates them, and initiates criminal proceedings against them….

October 13, 2023, will go down in the history of Russian law as a dark day for the legal profession.


UPDATE 0633 GMT:

The Russian Defense Ministry claimed air defenses downed 20 of 27 Ukrainian drones launched overnight.

The Ministry said 18 drones were intercepted over the Kursk region and two over the Belgorod region. It did not say what happened with the other seven UAVs.

Kursk Governor Roman Starovoyt reported 12 drones shot down, with debris falling within Kursk city and in the village of Zorino. He said there were no casualties.


UPDATE 0628 GMT:

Russian forces fired three S-300 missiles near Zaporizhzhia city about 2 a.m. on Sunday morning.

The Ukrainian military said “some infrastructure objects” were partially destroyed.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine’s pilots are expected to begin training on F-16 fighter jets in Arizona this week, say four US officials.

The officials said the pilots, who arrived at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas last month, have passed their first test for English proficiency. They will now train with 162nd Wing, the main F-16 training hub for the US Air Force, at Morris Air National Guard Base near Tucson.

The pilots will have basic training in the classroom and in simulators before flying the F-16s. The course may be accelerated because of the urgency of returning them to the battlefront.

The US confirmed on Wednesday that it will be part of the 11-nation coalition training Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crew. The Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium have all announced that they will supply F-16s.

A group of Ukrainian pilots are already training on flight simulators in Europe, said Ukraine Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat earlier this month.

At the NATO Defense Ministers summit in Belgium, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the F-16s could be on the battlefield by spring.