Ukrainian troops on the Zaporizhzhia front in the south of the country, July 2023

Saturday’s Coverage: Counter-Offensive Establishes Pocket Across Dnipro River in South

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1944 GMT:

The toll from Monday’s Russian “double tap” missile strikes on an apartment block, hotel, and restaurant in Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine has risen to 10.

Vitaly Kints, a colonel of the Civil Protection Service, died on Sunday from injuries sustained in the follow-up Russian strike, which came 43 minutes after the initial attack on the apartment building.

Another rescuer was killed immediately. Among the 81 injured were 31 police workers and seven emergency responders.

See also Ukraine War, Day 531: Russia Kills 7+ Civilians, Wounds 81+ in “Double Tap” Attack on Apartment Block and Hotel

Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said Kints was “an outgoing person, a brave and humane leader, and a true professional in his field, who devoted a significant part of his life to the service and put his soul into it”.

UPDATE 1935 GMT:

Ukraine has denounced Russia’s “deliberate attack” and “an act of piracy” in firing upon and boarding a Palau-flagged dry cargo ship, the Sukra Okan, in the southwestern Black Sea (see below).

Presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted:

UPDATE 1257 GMT:

Russia has fired warning shots at a cargo ship in the Black Sea for the first time since Vladimir Putin ripped up the July 2022 grain deal and reimposed Moscow’s blockade almost a month ago.

A warship fired with automatic small arms across the Palau-flagged cargo ship in the southwestern Black Sea on Sunday.

The Russian Defense Ministry said the ship stalled and an inspection team boarded.

UPDATE 1056 GMT:

Ukraine inflicted dozens of casualties on Russian personnel in a drone strike on a logistical base in Crimea early Saturday, say officials in the Ukrainian State security service SBU.

The SBU said 17 drones struck about 2 a.m. near the city of Yevpatoria in the west of the peninsula, targeting tent camps, vehicle parks, and fuel storage facilities.

Russian officials acknowledged the attack but claimed there were no casualties or damage as air defenses shot down 20 incoming drones.

The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Military Command added:

UPDATE 1042 GMT:

Seven civilians, including four members of a family, have been killed by Russian shelling of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

A husband, wife, and their 23-day-old baby daughter were killed immediately in Shiroka Balka. Their 12-year-old son died later in hospital.

Another person was slain in Shiroka Balka. Two men were killed and a woman injured in Stanislavov.

Roman Mrochko, head of the Kherson city military administration, said Russia attacked 17 times with 91 shells in 24 hours. He noted a high-voltage power line had been damaged in the city and asked residents to reduce their use of electricity as crews carry out repairs.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine’s 9-week counter-offensive has made “tactically significant” gains in the east and south of the country, advancing 10 to 12 miles despite Russian fortifications built up over months, assess analysts, Ukrainian officials, and Russian military observers.

The offensive in the south, in the Zaporizhzhia region and along the border with the Donetsk region, has much further to go before reaching the port cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk.

Ukrainian forces on the eastern front, encircling the city of Bakhmut, will hope to liberate other areas of the Donetsk region and move into neighboring Luhansk. At the same, Kyiv’s troops must hold back a Russian attack to regain territory near Lyman and Kupyansk.

But analysts explain that the counter-offensive is already forcing Russia to divert forces from a frontline of more than 1,200 km (744 miles). The Institute for the Study of War summarized on Friday:

The lack of Russian operational reserves means that the Russian command will have to conduct more lateral redeployments if they wish to reinforce certain sectors of the front in the future….

The further degradation of defending Russian forces thus creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.

UK military intelligence adds that Russian redeployments, including of airborne forces, will “likely leave Russia’s defenses near the east bank of the Dnipro River weaker”.

Earlier this week, Ukrainian troops established a position on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro, liberating the village of Kozachi Laheri and bringing in light infantry. The area is across the river from Kherson city, freed by Ukraine from Russian occupation last November.

A New Phase of the Counter-Offensive

The initial phase of the Ukrainian counter-offensive has made gradual advances, but has been held up by the built-up Russian defenses including trenches, wire, and heavily-seeded minefields. Loss of armored vehicles, including some supplied by an international coalition, led Ukrainian commanders to adjust tactics.

But in recent weeks, the counter-offensive has had renewed impetus. This week in the south, on the Melitopol axis, Ukrainian forces advanced in the western Zaporizhzhia region to the outskirts of Robotyne, 10 km (6.2 miles) south of Orikhiv. On the Berdyansk axis, troops entered Urozhaine, 9 km (5.6 miles) south of Velyka Novosilka in the area along the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

In the east, the counter-offensive took more positions to the south of Bakhmut city.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has been eroding Russia’s support system for its military with missile and drone attacks on oil depots, ammunition stores, and bridges.

The Chonhar Bridge, between Russian-occupied areas of the Kherson region and Crimea, was damaged earlier this week for the third time. On Saturday, the Kerch Bridge from the Russian mainland to Crimea — already heavily damaged in October and July — was attacked again.