A panel at the Bled Strategic Forum, Bled, Slovenia, August 28, 2023
I joined Poland’s TVP World on Monday to analyze the latest international developments, including the Bled Strategic Forum of Central and Eastern European leaders and another round of high-level US-China talks in Beijing.
The other panelist is Ilkan Dalkuc of Turkey’s Daktilo 1984.
Watch from 14:04:
On the Balkans, I discuss not only the significance of the individual governments but also — amid the catalyst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — the role the European Union can play in the quest for stability in the region.
We have seen a revitalized Europe in the sense of economic purpose and political purpose, but there will be a lot of challenges.
There is a need to deal with specific tensions and also to lay out a strategic framework in the Balkans and in other countries.
As US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimundo meets Chinese officials — the fourth high-level American official in Beijing since the spring — I look at the possibility of a de-escalation of US-Chinese tensions.
This is not just a tactical but a strategic approach by the Biden Administration, “Can we find areas where we can avoid confrontation and — while competing with China — find areas of common interest?”
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“We have seen a revitalized Europe in the sense of economic purpose and political purpose, but there will be a lot of challenges.”
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You’ve got to be kidding. Brandt and de Gaulle are probably spinning in their graves.
This is not just a tactical but a strategic approach by the Biden Administration, “Can we find areas where we can avoid confrontation and — while competing with China — find areas of common interest?”
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How can two very different economies compete with each other? China’s industrial capacity dwarfs that of the US, which has been de-industrialising for decades. China’s industrial output is far greater, and China can produce many more engineers. And avoiding confrontation means formulating sensible/rational policies. If the Biden Administration can’t do this with Russia, how can we expect it to formulate sensible policies for China? Military encirclement of China, technology export controls and bans, and the fear-mongering coverage of China in the US media won’t de-escalate tensions. Scott Lucas and Ilkan Dalkuc are correct in stating that de-escalation of tensions can help to create the conditions for which common interests are pursued. So, why would the US fight the BRICS, the BRI, and a rising China when it can explore ways to benefit from these new projects and changes taking place in the international system instead? Clearly, the West’s hold on geopolitical power is waning, and the US looks like it’s going down swinging. Many Americans expected US-China relations to improve when Biden became President. What changed under Biden? Not much.