EA on UK Media: Biden, Britain, and the NATO Summit

Monday’s Coverage: “Enabling Security Guarantees” for Kyiv at NATO Summit — But What of the Path to Accession?

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1802 GMT:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has responded to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s call for a timeline for Kyiv’s accession.

There has never been a stronger message from Nato at any time, both when it comes to the political message of the path forward for membership and the concrete support from NATO allies.

If you look at all the membership processes, there have not been timelines for those processes. They are conditions-based, have always been.

UPDATE 1754 GHT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has told an audience in Vilnius:

I would like [my faith in NATO] to become confidence – confidence in the decisions that we deserve, that all of us deserve, and that every warrior, every citizen, every mother, every child expects. And is that too much to expect?

NATO will give Ukraine security. Ukraine will make the Alliance stronger.

UPDATE 1630 GMT:

A coalition of 11 nations says it will start training Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets in August.

The centers will be established in Denmark and Romania.

In May, nations including Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK made commitments to the training, but Ukrainian officials have expressed frustration that operations have yet to begin.

“Hopefully, we will be able to see results in the beginning of next year,” Denmark’s Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told reporters after a signing ceremony.

Ukraine is still awaiting the first commitment from a country to provide the F-16s. Poland and Slovakia have provided 27 Soviet-made MiG-29s.

UPDATE 1612 GMT:

NATO has posted a communiqué pointing toward an accelerated process for Ukraine’s membership as soon as the Russian invasion is defeated.

The alliance renewed its 2008 statement welcoming Ukrainian candidacy. Even more importantly, it has waived the requirement for a Membership Action Plan, which can take several years for a candidate nation to complete.

We fully support Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements. Ukraine’s future is in NATO. We reaffirm the commitment we made at the 2008 Summit in Bucharest that Ukraine will become a member of NATO, and today we recognize that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan.

The 31 nations noted that “Ukraine has become increasingly interoperable and politically integrated” with NATO, and praised “substantial progress on its reform path”.

NATO Foreign Ministers “will regularly assess progress and will support Ukraine in making necessary “reforms on its path towards future membership”.

The statement concludes, “We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when allies agree and conditions are met.”

UPDATE 1524 GMT:

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has confirmed that the bloc’s declaration will include an invitation “to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met”.

UPDATE 1243 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed a women in the village of Sofiyivka in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

Two people were injured, one seriously, in the attack on residential quarters.

UPDATE 1137 GMT:

Germany is preparing a €700 million ($770 million) military aid package for Ukraine.

The assistance includes two Patriot launcher missile systems, 40 Marder armored vehicles, and 25 Leopard tanks.

UPDATE 1054 GMT:

En route to the NATO Summit in Lithuania, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has chided the bloc over a draft text which does not invite Kyiv to become a member.

We received signals that certain wording is being discussed without Ukraine…

It’s unprecedented and absurd when time frame is not set neither for the invitation nor for Ukraine’s membership, while at the same time vague wording about “conditions” is added even for inviting Ukraine.

The President warned, “A window of opportunity is being left to bargain Ukraine’s membership in NATO in negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror. Uncertainty is weakness.”

He assured, “I will openly discuss this at the summit.”

UPDATE 0936 GMT:

French President Emmanuel Macron says Paris will begin delivering SCALP long-range missiles to Ukraine.

“I have decided to increase deliveries of weapons and equipment to enable the Ukrainians to have the capacity to strike deeply while keeping our doctrine to allow Ukraine to defend its territory,” Macron told the media upon arrival at the NATO summit in Lithuania’s capital Vilnius.

In May, the UK began supplying Kyiv with its version of SCALP, Storm Shadow, which has a range of more than 155 miles. The weapons have already been effective in attacks on Russian military, supply, and logistics positions.

UPDATE 0851 GMT:

Russian academic and trade union activist Mikhail Lobanov has fled the country after he was labelled a “foreign agent” and dismissed by Moscow State University.

Lobanov said that he is already in a place “where Russian security forces cannot break in”.

I have repeatedly said that I consider it important to stay in Russia as long as there is an opportunity to continue creative political activity.

Now, for me personally, this opportunity has been temporarily exhausted.

Earlier Monday, Lobanov revealed he had been fired as his associate professor in Moscow State’s Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics.

The academic ran as a candidate for the Communist Party in Russia’s 2021 Parliamentary elections. He was labeled a “foreign agent” by the Justice Ministry last month.

“Obviously, the next and final step would soon be some kind of fictional criminal case and putting me in jail,” he told The Moscow Times. “And until that moment, the life of me and my wife would have been reduced to a struggle for survival, in which there would no longer be time for political participation.”

Lobanov said he would now “work with progressive political forces in other countries in order to form a set of proposals and guarantees” for ending the war in Ukraine.

UPDATE 0812 GMT:

The US-based Institute for the Study of War summarizes:

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on June 4…Ukrainian forces recaptured approximately 253 square kilometers of territory….

Russian forces have captured a total of 282 square kilometers in the entire theater since January 1.

In five weeks, Ukrainian forces have liberated nearly the same amount of territory that Russian forces captured in more than six months.

UPDATE 0757 GMT:

African leaders are pressing Vladimir Putin to demonstrate a “desire for peace” before the Russia-Africa summit in late July.

Senegal’s President Macky Sall said in an interview published Monday, “He must do some actions to show his desire to move forward, even in a humanitarian way.”

Sall said he made the request to Putin in June during the African leaders’ “peace mission” to Moscow and Kyiv. He said the release of prisoners of war and children abducted by Russian forces “could be a very good signal”.

UPDATE 0745 GMT:

After Turkey’s lifting of its blockade on Swedish membership of NATO, Hungary is withdrawing its objections, paving the way for Stockholm to be formally admitted to the bloc at this week’s summit in Lithuania.

Hungary’s ratification is “only a technical issue” now, said Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, en route to Vilnius.

UPDATE 0734 GMT:

The Ukrainian military has updated on Russia’s overnight attack, saying it downed 26 of 28 Iranian-made Shahed drones.

The two that evaded air defenses caused damage in Odesa in southern Ukraine, hitting the administration building of a port facility.

A fire in two port terminals, including one for grain, has been extinguished without “critical damage” or injuries.

UPDATE 0609 GMT:

A Russian military official has been assassinated in the city of Krasnodar in southwest Russia.

Capt. Stanislav Rzhitsky, who coincidentally commanded the “Krasnodar” submarine, was shot four times in the back and chest. He died immediately.

Rzhitsky was deputy head of the city’s Department for Mobilization Work.

Rzhitsky is suspected of launching Kalibr cruise missiles from the Krasnodar submarine. One of those attacks killed 23 civilians in Vinnytsia in west-central Ukraine on July 14, 2022.

UPDATE 0556 GMT:

Russia has fired drones on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, hours before the start of the NATO summit in Lithuania.

“The enemy attacked Kyiv from the air for the second time this month,” wrote Serhiy Popko, the head of Kyiv’s military administration.

Popko said all the Iranian-made Shahed attacks drones were downed launched before they reached their targets.

Fragments of one damaged windows and outbuildings of private households. There were no reported casualties.

UPDATE 0548 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expressed optimism that the NATO Summit in Lithuania will set out the process for Kyiv to join the bloc.

In his nightly address to the nation, Zelenskiy said:

We are still working on the wording, that is, on the specific words of such confirmation, but we already understand the fact that Ukraine will be in the alliance.

And we are working to make the algorithm for gaining membership as clear and fast as possible.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has lifted his blockade of Sweden’s accession to NATO.

On the eve of Tuesday’s NATO Summit in Lithuania, Erdoğan stepped back from his 15-month obstruction after talks in Vilnius with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Kristersson hailed a “very big step”: “This feels very good, this has been my aim for a long time, and I believe we had a very fine response today and took a very big step towards membership.”

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbhán has also stood in the way of Sweden’s accession. He and his ruling Fidesz Party have delayed a Parliamentary session for ratification until the autumn.

However, the Orbán Government has said it would not be the last holdout among NATO’s 31 member states.

Stoltenberg did not give a specific commitment on the timing of Swedish accession, saying that Erdoğan had agreed to Turkey’s Parliamentary ratification “as soon as possible”.

In return for lifting his blockade, Erdoğan obtained a joint statement from NATO and Sweden that Ankara and Stockholm will work closely in “counter-terrorism coordination” and boost trade ties.

The statement also alluded to Erdoğan’s declaration earlier in the day that the 24-year process for Turkey’s admission to the European Union would be revived: “Sweden will actively support efforts to reinvigorate Turkey’s EU accession process, including modernization of the EU-Turkey Customs Union and visa liberalization.”

But Erdoğan reaped another reward which may be even more important to him. After months of stalemate, the US has agreed to provide F-16 jets to Ankara.