A Ukraine postage stamp commemorating the explosion on the Russian-controlled Kerch Bridge, October 8, 2022

EA on Times Radio: Week in Review — Ukraine and NATO; UK Turmoil, Ben Wallace, and Labour’s Message; India’s Power Politics

Sunday’s Coverage: Russia’s Generals Fired For Speaking Out About Their Troops

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1835 GMT:

The US has announced a package of more than $500 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine.

Samantha Power, the head of the Agency for International Development, announced the aid during a visit to the State emergency services headquarters in Kyiv.

Power handed over $2.3 million of equipment to help with repairs of damage from Russian attacks on infrastructure. She said:

We see what is happening in Ukraine. Russia continues to burn and Ukraine continues to build. It is our privilege…to support our Ukrainian partners as they do that building.

Power said of Russia’s withdrawal from the Ukraine grain deal:

This is a reckless decision that will have profound human consequences, and it’s just another example of Russian callousness and disregard for human lives and livelihoods, not only here in Ukraine but all around the world.

UPDATE 1819 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed two civilians — women aged 76 and 74 — and wounded 10, one seriously, in Bilopillia in the Sumy region in northern Ukraine.

Three of four artillery strikes hit the town center.

UPDATE 1810 GMT:

UN Secretary General António Guterres says hundreds of millions of people “will pay the price” for Vladimir Putin’s shredding of the July 2022 deal which lifted Russia’s blockade of exports from three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.

I deeply regret the decision by the Russian Federation to terminate the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative – including the withdrawal of Russian security guarantees for navigation in the north-western part of the Black Sea.

This Initiative has ensured the safe passage of over 32 million metric tons of food commodities from Ukrainian ports….

At a time when the production and availability of food is being disrupted by conflict, climate change, energy prices and more, these agreements [for Ukrainian and Russian exports of food products and fertilizers] have helped to reduce food prices by over 23% since March last year.

Guterres referred to his letter last week to Putin with a proposal to keep “alive” the deal. He said the UN had helped secure waivers of US sanctions and worked closely with Russian fertilizer groups to unblock assets.

UPDATE 1803 GMT:

With the roadways of the Kerch Bridge damaged by this morning’s explosions, the queue for Russians trying to return from Crimea — many of them holidaymakers — has reached 10 km (6.2 miles).

UPDATE 1737 GMT:

Having said that he withdrew from the Black Sea deal because he wants arrangements for the export of Russian fertilizers, Vladimir Putin appears to have ended the existing provisions.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said because of Russia’s departure from the July 2022 agreement allowing Ukraine grain exports, a pact between the UN and Moscow to help movement of Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports has been ended.

Guterres told reporters, “Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.”

UPDATE 1732 GMT:

Having collapsed the July 2022 deal for the safe export of Ukraine grain and other goods from Black Sea ports, Russia is threatening to intercept vessels.

Moscow told the UN’s shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization, that “the guarantees for the safety of navigation issued by the Russian side will be revoked”.

Pro-active necessary actions and response measures to neutralize threats posed by the Kyiv regime in the area will be taken, considering the continued armed provocations thereby and attempts to attack Russian military and civilian objects.

UPDATE 1345 GMT:

After the damage to the Kerch Bridge, Moscow’s officials are asking Russians on holiday to return from Crimea through Russian-occupied southern Ukraine.

With commercial flights to Crimea suspended during Vladimir Putin’s invasion, tourists will have to drive 400 km (250 miles) through territory seriously affected by fighting.

The main route is through Melitopol to the port city of Mariupol to Russia’s Rostov-on-Don.

“Safety is ensured by the Russian army, it will be strengthened,” asserted Vladimir Saldo, the Russian proxy head in the occupied part of the Kherson region.

UPDATE 1338 GMT:

The UK has issued 14 sanctions designations, including Russian Education Minister Sergey Kravtsov, over Moscow’s “attempts to destroy Ukrainian national identity”.

Eleven of the sanctions are related to the forced deportations of Ukrainian children to Russia or Russian-occupied areas. Russian Culture Minister Olga Lyubimova is cited “for using her position to support the Russian state’s damaging anti-Ukrainian policies”, and former Russia Today presenter Anton Krasovsky for spreading “propaganda designed to incite violence and hatred towards Ukraine”.

Last month the European Union sanctioned Russian individuals over “the forced transfers and deportation of Ukrainian children and persons responsible for the looting of Ukraine’s cultural heritage”.

UPDATE 1134 GMT:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has responded to Vladimir Putin’s refusal to extend the July 2022 deal, brokered by Ankara and the UN, lifting Russia’s blockade of three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea (see 0918 GMT).

Erdoğan told reporters that he will discuss the deal, including the export of Russian fertilizer, with Putin when they meet in person in August.

“I hope that with this discussion, we can make some progress and continue on our way without a pause,” he said.

Erdoğan declared last Friday that Putin had agreed to the extension of the deal past today’s deadline. However, the Kremlin denied any statement had been made and also said Putin had not scheduled a trip to Turkey next month.

European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen criticized Putin’s destruction of the deal.

UPDATE 1129 GMT:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has marked the 9th anniversary of the killing of 298 civilians when Russian proxy forces, commanded by Moscow, shot down Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine.

UPDATE 1059 GMT:

Sweden has announced a further 6 billion kronor ($586 million) in aid for Ukraine’s reconstruction and reforms, preparing for Kyiv’s accession to the European Union.

Funding will help develop Ukrainian infrastructure and institutions such as health care; increase Ukraine’s access to fossil free energy and transition to greener technologies; and strengthen security and human rights protections.

International Development Cooperation Minister Johan Forsell said:

This is the largest and most ambitious bilateral strategy that Sweden has developed, ever. Additional specifically directed investments will come on top of this.

In the long term we want to see not just one, but two blue and yellow flags in Kyiv. The Ukrainian and the European.

UPDATE 1000 GMT:

Russian State TV, covering this morning’s damaging explosions on the Kerch Bridge to Russian-occupied Crimea in southern Ukraine, are leaving out some essential facts.

UPDATE 0943 GMT:

The latest Russian shelling of the Kharkiv region in northeast Ukraine has killed at least one civilian and injured at least five.

In the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, Russian attacks killed one civilian and injured nine, including two children.

UPDATE 0918 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has refused to extend the July 2022 deal lifting Russia’s blockade of three Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that the agreement is “essentially terminated”. He said Russia will resume participation in the deal “as soon as the relevant agreements are fulfilled”.

He said there was no connection to this morning’s attack damaging the Kerch Bridge from Russia to Russian-occupied Crimea, as Putin had already made his decision.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Moscow informed others on Monday morning that it would withdraw from the deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN, to ensure Ukraine’s shipments of grain, foodstuffs, and other goods.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said last Friday that Putin had stepped back yet again from his threats to end the deal, which expires today.

But Peskov denied any statement had been made, and Putin claimed over the weekend that commitments to remove obstacles to Russian food and fertilizer exports had not been fulfilled.

Since August, almost 33 million metric tons of food have been exported by sea from Ukraine, more than half to developing countries.

UPDATE 0911 GMT:

An official has insisted to Russian media that repairs to the Kerch Bridge “won’t take too long”, estimating a month or just beyond.

The source, said to be close to Crimea’s Russian proxies, said, “All bridge structures are on supports. One of the threads sank a little, but not much.”

In the meantime, vehicles will be transported by ferries, and trucks will take a detour.

UPDATE 0828 GMT:

The satirical social media account “Darth Putin” has commented on this morning’s explosions on the Kerch Bridge.

Czech Tomasz Dawid Jędruchów oosts a photo reworking a well-known meme of Vladimir Putin, with Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Maj. Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the invasion of Ukraine, sitting at the far end beyond the broken “long table”.

Former Estonian President Toomas Ilves shows a video of “NAFO” — the North Atlantic Fella Organization, set up to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda — which adapts Gala’s 90s dance tune “Freed From Desire”:

UPDATE 0748 GMT:

Sources have told RBC-Ukraine News and State agency Ukrinform that this morning’s two explosions on the Kerch Bridge, between Russia’s Krasnodar region and occupied Crimea, were from a Ukrainian drone attack.

The sources said the operation was carried out by the Ukraine security service SBU and the Navy: “The bridge was attacked with surface drones. It was difficult to get to the bridge, but in the end it was possible to do so.”

Ukrainian public broadcaster Suspilne is also citing sources which say the bridge was attacked with underwater drones.

Ukraine’s SBU tweeted a cryptic poem appearing to claim responsibility: “Nightingale, my dear brother; The bridge has gone to sleep again; Once … twice!”

The SBU added, “P.S. The music is folk. The words are by the Security Service of Ukraine.”

Video indicates that both the eastern and western roadways on the bridge are seriously damaged.

Russian officials claim that trains have resumed on the railway section.

UPDATE 0633 GMT:

On this day in 2014, Russian proxy forces — supplied by Moscow and led by one of its commanders — used a Buk missile to shoot down a Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

The Boeing 777 jet crashed near Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. All 283 passengers, including 80 children, and 15 crew members were killed.

The International Court of Justice found that MH 17 was downed by fighters of the Russian proxy “Donetsk People’s Republic”, mistaking the passenger jet for a military aircraft.

The Hague court sentenced Russian officers Igor Girkin, Leonid Kharchenko and Sergei Dubinsky in absentia to life terms.

UPDATE 0625 GMT:

There are further analyses today about the weakening Russian defenses in the face of Ukraine’s month-long counter-offensive and divisions within Moscow’s military command.

UK military intelligence notes Russia is suffering from a shortage of counter-battery radars, essential for commanders to “rapidly locate enemy gun lines”.

“Russian ground forces survivability relies on effectively detecting Ukrainian artillery and striking against it,” the analysts explain.

They note that the lack of radars was one of the complaints of Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army. Popov was recently fired when he complained to superiors about lack of support for his troops on the frontline in southern Ukraine.

In a lengthy post evaluating the dismissals of Russian commanders of frontline units, the US-based Institute for the Study of War summarizes:

The apparent crisis in the Russian chain of command and the corresponding morale effects it may produce will likely degrade Russian capabilities to conduct tactical offensive operations that are critical to the Russian elastic defense in southern Ukraine.

UPDATE 0607 GMT:

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar says Ukraine’s counter-offensive has liberated 7 square km (2.7 sq miles) in the past week on the eastern front around the city of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

Maliar said forces “have been advancing every day during the past week”.

She noted that 31 sq km (12 sq miles) in the Bakhmut area have been liberated during the counter-offensive, with troops advancing both to the north and the south.

The Deputy Minister said 10.9 square km (4.2 sq miles) were regained on the southern front over the past week.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russia’s Kerch Bridge to occupied Crimea in southern Ukraine, a flagship project of Vladimir Putin and a vital link for Russian invaders, has been damaged again.

The 19-km (12-mile) bridge was closed to traffic just after the 3 a.m. blast. Vyacheslav Gladkov, the Governor of Russia’s Belgorod Province, wrote: “This morning we all started with information about the emergency that happened on the Crimean bridge. We all saw a video on the internet of a damaged car with Belgorod number plates.”

He claimed a mother and father, were killed in the “emergency” and their daughter injured.

The GreyZone channel on Telegram, affiliated with Wagner Group mercenaries reported two strikes on the bridge at 03:04 a.m. and 03:20 a.m.

Russian officials initially said a span of the bridge on the Crimean end was damaged. The Russia proxy governor of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, later delcared that train services will resume by 9 a.m. (0600 GMT).

But overhead video of the bridge indicated that it is seriously damaged:

There has been no claim of responsibility for the explosion. Natalia Humeniuk, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Military Command, cautioned:

The creation of such provocations, which the [Russian[ occupying authorities of Crimea report immediately very loudly, is a typical way of solving problems by authorities of Crimea and the aggressor country.

The bridge was opened by Putin on May 15, 2018, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s occupation of Crimea. An explosion last October 8 collapsed four of the six lanes for vehicles, and the railway was heavily damaged when a rail tanker carriage caught fire.

The bridge was reopened for cars in February and for trains in May.