Water pours from the Nova Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine after Russia’s reported demoilition, June 6, 2023

Friday’s Coverage: A Purge of Russia’s Generals?

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1715 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed a 51-year-old man and injured two people in the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine.

The man was slain in the village of Mala Tokmachka, 25 miles east of the Dnipro River, near the frontline of the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

UPDATE 1453 GMT:

Speaking alongside visiting Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that danger persists at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Citing Ukrainian intelligence, Zelenskiy said:

There is a serious threat because Russia is technically ready to provoke a local explosion at the station, which could lead to a [radiation] release.

UPDATE 1229 GMT:

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has told the Ukraine Parliament that Kyiv will win against Russia’s invasion.

However, with Spain holding the Presidency of the European Council for the next six months, Sanchez says that Ukraine’s accession to the European Union — while deserved — will not be an “easy process”.

The Prime Minister cited Spain’s path to the EU, which began in 1977 after the transition from the autocracy of Gen. Francisco Franco. He said the experience taught Madrid “important lessons” about the required “changes, reforms, and sacrifices”.

Reforms make your governance and economy better, more modern, and more transparent. They bolster international confidence and proximity. They attract investment. And, in time, they will grant you access to our European Union.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who will meet Sanchez later on Saturday, tweeted his gratitude.

UPDATE 1157 GMT:

Ukraine’s strike on the Chonhar Bridge on June 22, between the Russian-occupied areas of the Kherson region and the Crimea peninsula, is leading to traffic problems elsewhere in Russian-controlled territory.

At the entrance to the Krymsky bridge between Russia’s Krasnodar region and Crimea, lines stretch for 6 km (3.7 miles). Cars are waiting for more than five hours for entry and inspections, instituted after the attack on Chonhar.

UPDATE 0707 GMT:

The latest Russian shelling of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine has killed three civilians.

Two people were slain in Serhiivka and one in Mykolaivka. Another 10 people were injured.

Earlier on Friday, two women were killed and six injured by a Russian missile strike on a primary school in the village of Serhiivka.

The victims were a teacher, 56, and the chief accountant, 44. Six other employees were injured.

No students were present at the time of the strike.

In the Kherson region in the south, four adults and a child were injured by Russian attacks.

Kherson Governor Oleksandr Prokudin cited 82 attacks with 445 projectiles, using mortars, artillery, tanks, Grad rockets, and drones.

On Saturday, Russia injured another two children, a 9-year-old girl and a 15-year-old boy.

UPDATE 0648 GMT:

Ukraine officials have told the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns, of the objectives of their counter-offensive.

During Burns’ visit to Kyiv last month, only now revealed by US officials, the Ukrainians expressed confidence that they can liberate “substantial territory” by the autumn.

The plan is to push farther into eastern Ukraine. In the south, artillery and missile systems will be positioned near the boundary of Crimea, occupied by Russia since 2014. Negotiations with Moscow could then be pursued.

In return for Ukraine’s agreement not to take Crimea by force, Russia would accept that Kyiv can secure security guarantees from Western countries.

A “senior Ukrainian official” summarized, “Russia will only negotiate if it feels threatened.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine’s counter-offensive has crossed the Dnipro River in the Kherson region in the south of the country, rebuffing Russian efforts for two weeks to remove the bridgehead.

A small Ukrainian force, reportedly up to 70 troops, has established itself under the eastern span of the Antonivskiy Bridge on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro. The area is across from Kherson city, liberated from Russian occupation last November.

The Ukrainians made the crossing despite the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dam on June 6, with devastating flooding of the Kherson region. Substantial evidence points to a deliberate Russian destruction of the dam.

UK military intelligence assesses that Russia weakened the defense of the east bank when it “highly likely reallocated” elements of the Dnipro Group of Forces to “reinforce the Zaporizhzhia sector” to the north.

Russian military observers have responded to the crossing with distress and anger. They note the significant loss of Russian personnel and armored vehicles, from Ukrainian artillery and remotely-laid mine, in attempts to regain the bridgehead. They are calling for airstrike on both spans of the Antonivskiy Bridge, preventing the Ukrainians from using it as cover.

Russian forces launched an Iskander ballistic missile — reportedly in short supply — against the east bank span on Friday. The extent of the damage has yet to be determined.

Ukraine Commander: Progress Each Day — But More Weapons Needed

The commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has spoken of the advances while challenging punditry that they have not been more rapid.

It “pisses me off,” Zaluzhnyi told The Washington Post. He noted the daily progress on both the southern and eastern fronts, even if it is just 500 meters, and explained:

This is not a show. It’s not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood.

The general called for more military assistance to ensure success, “Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all.” However, he assured:

But they are being carried out. Yes, maybe not as fast as the participants in the show, the observers, would like, but that is their problem.

Zalushnyi said he shares his concerns about lack of weapons and equipment — Ukrainian forces have been outshot 10-fold by the Russians at times, he says — with the chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley.

He shares them absolutely. And I think he can help me get rid of those worries….

We have an agreement: 24/7, we’re in touch. So, sometimes I can call up and say, “If I don’t get 100,000 shells in a week, 1,000 people will die. Step into my shoes.”

However, the commander explains, “It’s not Milley who decides whether we get planes or not….While that decision is being made, in the obvious situation, a lot of people die every day — a lot. Just because no decision has been made yet.”

The Biden Administration is still holding out on Ukrainian requests for F-16 fighter jets. However, it is reportedly close to lifting its block on supply of long-range missiles.

Milley: “Very, Very Bloody” Counter-Offensive

Gen. Milley told the National Press Club on Friday that the counteroffensive will be “very, very bloody” as it takes on Russian defenses fortified for months.

Milley echoed Zaluzhnyi’s statement that the counter-offensive is “advancing steadily, deliberately working its way through very difficult minefields…500 meters a day, 1,000 meters a day, 2,000 meters a day, that kind of thing”.

War on paper and real war are different. In real war, real people die. Real people are on those front lines and real people are in those vehicles. Real bodies are being shredded by high explosives….

This is going to take six, eight, 10 weeks, it’s going to be very difficult. It’s going to be very long, and it’s going to be very, very bloody. And no one should have any illusions about any of that.