In a 25-minute special, I joined Voice of Islam Radio on Monday to explain and analyze the UK’s immediate and long-term economic decline.
I discuss how Britain is in the grip of “stagflation”, the combination of the highest inflation rate — almost 9% — and the lowest growth in GDP (0.1%) among G7 countries. That is combined with a rapid increase in interest rates, reaching 5% this month and projected to reach 6% by the end of 2023. The outcome is that the average UK household is worse off by hundreds of pounds each month.
How did the UK manage this distinctive economic “achievement”? There are the factors of long-term austerity policies and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
However, the primary cause — though no Government minister will admit it — is the self-inflicted damage of Brexit and the departure from the European Union.
I go through the possible fiscal and monetary responses and conclude with the most favorable step, which will never be taken by the Sunak Government and possibly not by a Labour Party successor after the 2024 election.
That solution — economically sensible but feared by many as politically toxic in a corrupted UK culture — is re-entry into the European single market.