The leader of Wagner Group mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, with Russian generals, Rostov-on-Don, June 24, 2023

Saturday’s Coverage: Zelenskiy — Russia May Release Radiation at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 2249 GMT:

The scene at Yevgeny Prigozhin’s departure from Rostov-on-Don on Saturday night….

UPDATE 2104 GMT:

Under the deal between the Wagner Group and the Kremlin, brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, Wagner leader Yevgeny Progozhin will move to Belarus.

Wagner’s mercenaries will not be prosecuted for the brief rebellion.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke, just before the announcement of the Wagner-Kremlin deal, about “the complete chaos” in which “the bosses of Russia do not control anything”.

Far from showing strength, “the man from the Kremlin” — “very afraid” — “showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs” that it is easy to “capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons”.

UPDATE 1833 GMT:

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin says he is halting the advance on Moscow, and his fighters will pull out of the cities which they took over on Saturday.

They wanted to disband Wagner. We set out on June 23 for the “March of Justice”. In a day we marched just short of 200 km from Moscow. During this time, we have not shed a single drop of the blood of our fighters.

Now is the moment when blood can be shed. Realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed, we are turning our columns around and leaving in the opposite direction, to our field camps, according to the plan.

The office of Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko said Prigozhin accepted a proposal to halt and “take further steps to de-escalate tensions”. It said Lukashenko had conducted negotiations with the approval of Vladimir Putin after the two spoke on Saturday morning.

Negotiations continued throughout the day. As a result, [Lukashenko and Prigozhin] came to agreements on the inadmissibility of unleashing a bloody massacre on the territory of Russia.

UPDATE 1540 GMT:

Amid “counter-terrorist” measures over the Wagner Group’s advance on Moscow (see 1507 GMT), Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has declared Monday a “non-working day”.

All mass events outdoors and at educational institutions have been suspended until 1 July.

UPDATE 1530 GMT:

The Ukraine military says its counter-offensive on the eastern front in the Donetsk has liberated territory near the city of Krasnohorivka, occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014.

Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Tarnavsky posted, “The movement of our forces continues. There are tangible successes and progress.”

UPDATE 1507 GMT:

BBC Russia reports evacuations of public buildings across Moscow. They include the Kremlin, Tretyakov Gallery, Pushkin Museum, GES-2 House of Culture, and Mega Belaya Dacha and Kvartal shopping centers.

Traffic on the Moscow River was suspended. Police officers in bulletproof vests and with machine guns are near the entrance of the highway linking Moscow to the south with Voronezh and Rostov–on-Don, where Wagner Group mercenaries are advancing.

In the Tambov region. southeast of the capital, mass events have canceled. They high school graduation parties, which have been postponed until July 1 in the capital and in neighboring regions.

UPDATE 1350 GMT:

A scene from Rostov-on-Don after Wagner Group mercenaries pushed out the Russian military….

A resident, Sergey, says of this morning’s events:

This [rebellion] is a natural story, but I thought that such a thing would be performed by regular troops – especially after mobilization. Sooner or later everyone will see clearly that there is nothing to do there [in the invasion of Ukraine]. And in general: why are we fighting there?….

I am very ambivalent about Prigozhin. He seems to be telling the truth , but then again, his hands are up to the elbows in blood. If you are such a truth teller, what are you doing there, in Ukraine?

UPDATE 1326 GMT:

Sources of the independent Russian outlet Meduza say that up to Friday, the Kremlin did not rule out that “Prigozhin is bluffing” over his demands for the dismissals of Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and the commander of the Ukraine invasion, Maj. Gen. Valery Gerasimov. Officials thought he was trying to “bargain something for himself”.

But after Wagner Group mercenaries took control of Rostov-on-Don on the morning of June 24, “there was an understanding that the matter was serious”.

Russian leaders still hoped for a resolution “more or less peacefully”, as Prigozhin met Deputy Defense Minister Col. Gen. Yunus-bek Yevkurov and the deputy head of the GRU military intelligence service, Vladimir Alekseev (see Original Entry). Senior Kremlin officials instructed Russian governors and other politicians to comment “softly and without switching to the personality of Prigozhin”.

But 90 minutes later, with Prigozhin refusing to compromise, the regional heads and politicians were told to call Prigozhin a “traitor”. Vladimir Putin soon made his speech declaring, “All those who consciously embarked on the path of betrayal will suffer inevitable punishment.”

One source said Prigozhin’s feud with Russian military leaders escalated two weeks ago when Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu issued a decree that all combatants must sign contracts with the Ministry. Prigozhin suggested circumventions for Wagner’s status, but the Kremlin refused. After that, “a bad feeling hung in the air —something will happen”.

But Russian security forces “slept through” the situation — “Maybe they didn’t dare to tell the President that something was wrong with Prigozhin” — and the Kremlin underestimated the extent of the problem.

We discussed it at meetings, agreed that he is a daring adventurer and does not behave according to the rules. The risk of a military mutiny was considered zero. They considered that only a madman could do this.

The Kremlin is assuring that the army and the security forces will halt Wagner’s mercenaries. But one source said some fighters will be able to “break through to Moscow”, and another, close to the Presidential Administration, has taken his family out of the capital.

UPDATE 1321 GMT:

Russia’s Internet regulator Roskomnadzor says access may be limited in areas of the country where “counter-terrorist operations” are taking place.

UPDATE 1231 GMT:

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin said his mercenaries did not have to fire a single shot when they took control the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don this morning.

Prigozhin said the fighters were attacked by artillery and helicopters en route to the city, about 640 miles south of Moscow.

He said he believes that he has the support of the Russian people for a “march of justice”.

The head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service SVR, Sergei Naryshkin, insisted that Prigozhin’s attempt to destabilize society and ignite a civil war had failed.

UPDATE 1219 GMT:

Russian State outlet RIA is acknowledging that Wagner Group forces control the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military command in Rostov-on-Don.

Meanwhile, a scene on the street:

UPDATE 1210 GMT:

The military analysis site Oryx assesses that the Wagner Group’s claim of destroying four Russian military aircraft is accurate.

Oryx says an Il-22M Airborne Command Post and three helicopters — 2 Mi-8MTPR-1 Electronic Warfare Helicopters and 1 Mi-35M Attack Helicopter — were downed.

Wagner also captured a mine-resistant ambush protected vehicle and an infantry mobility vehicle.

The mercenaries lost one technical vehicle.

UPDATE 1201 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has spoken by phone with Kakazhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Tokayev — who benefited from Russian intervention when he was challenged by mass protests in January 2022 — gave a cautious statement after the conversation.

The events taking place are an internal matter of #Russia. Constitutional order and the rule of law are a prerequisite for maintaining law and order in the country. This is the basis of the security of society and its successful development.

UPDATE 1157 GMT:

Wagner forces have reportedly moved further north towards Moscow, from the Voronezh region into the Lipetsk region, less than 300 miles from the capital.

Wagner convoys have been filmed travelling on the main route of the M4 highway.

Regional authorities advised “residents without urgent need not to leave their homes and refrain from any travel by personal or public transport”.

UPDATE 1115 GMT:

The Institute for the Study of War explains how the Wagner Group’s takeover of Rostov-on-Don will degrade Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including its defense against a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Rostov-on-Don houses both the headquarters of the SMD, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command center for the Russian Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine as a whole.

Rostov-on-Don is therefore a critical command and control membrane for the Russian army, and any threats to the Defense Ministry’s presence are likely to have ramifications on some critical aspects of the war effort.

UPDATE 1039 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has responded to developments inside Russia.

Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will have for itself later.

UPDATE 0950 GMT:

An oil depot is on fire amid “heavy fighting” in the Voronezh region between the Wagner Group and Russian military units (see 0909 GMT).

Meanwhile, Russian security forces have surrounded the Wagner headquarters in St. Petersburg:

UPDATE 0933 GMT:

Overnight Russian missile strikes on five regions of Ukraine have killed at least three people and injured eight.

The casualties were in Kyiv after fragments of a downed missile struck a high-rise building. Mayor Vitaly Klitschko said other victims may be trapped under rubble.

“This is the style of terrorists. The style of Russia,” Klitschko wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine’s military said air defenses destroyed 41 of 51 cruise missiles and two drones.

UPDATE 0927 GMT:

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has declared in the latest statement about his rebellion, “All of us are ready to die. All 25,000, and then another 25,000. We are dying for the Russian people.”

He said that Vladimir Putin “was deeply mistaken” in calling him a traitor.

No one is going to turn themselves in at the request of the president….We don’t want the country to continue to live in corruption and lies.

We are patriots, and those who are against us are the ones who gathered around the bastards.

UPDATE 0925 GMT:

A Telegram channel linked to Belarus ruler Alexander Lukashenko says Vladimir Putin “informed his Belarusian counterpart about the situation in Russia” over the phone this morning.

UPDATE 0917 GMT:

Scenes from Rostov-on-Don, now controlled by the Wagner Group mercenaries….

A resident listens to the speech of Vladimir Putin, calling for loyalty and Wagner to lay down their arms:

Another man argues with Wagner fighters:

UPDATE 0909 GMT:

“Heavy fighting” is reported in the Voronezh region, about 320 miles south of Moscow.

The Russian air force is reportedly attacking Wagner Group positions with guided bombs and rockets. Wagner claims it has downed four Russian warplanes and helicopters.

UPDATE 0900 GMT:

Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, a long-time acolyte of Vladimir Putin, has sided with the Russian leader and, echoing Putin’s phrase, criticized Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion as a “stab in the back”.

Kadyrov — installed as leader in Chechnya after Putin’s suppression of an insurgeny in which an estimated 80,000 people were killed — said he is willing to help with the “harshest measures” and has already sent his fighters to assist the Kremlin.

UPDATE 0853 GMT:

The Wagner Group has responded to Vladimir Putin’s speech with — for the first time — an open denunciation of the Russian leader.

“Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him. Soon we will have a new President,” a Wagner channel on Telegram asserted.

UPDATE 0707 GMT:

Vladimir Putin is addressing the nation.

He says he is fighting for the life and security of his people and the country needs unity of all its forces.

What we’re facing now is treason. Personal interests have led to the betrayal of our country and the cause that our armed forces are fighting.

All those who went on the path of treason will be punished and will be held accountable. The Russian Armed Forces received the necessary order to neutralize those who organized the rebellion.

All those who consciously embarked on the path of betrayal will suffer inevitable punishment.

Assuring “I will do everything possible to defend my country”, he says, “Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.”

UPDATE 0657 GMT:

A “Russian security source” says Wagner Group mercenaries have taken control of all military facilities in Voronezh, about 320 miles south of Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin has announced:

A counter-terrorist status has been imposed in Moscow. In connection with this, previously announced mass events in the city have been cancelled. All city services are operating at full capacity, and movement around the city is not impeded.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The months-long feud between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries, and the Russian military leadership is now an internal war.

In a series of audio and video messages on Friday night, Prigozhin said he would take “revenge” against Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu; the overall commander of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Maj. Gen. Valery Geraisomov; and Russian officials.

Prigozhin said the breaking point was the Russian military’s rocket attack that killed scores of his fighters. He declared:

Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist.

Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads.

I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.

By Saturday morning, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner and supporting Russian units are in control of all military positions in Rostov-on-Don, about 640 miles south of Moscow. He said his forces will advance on the capital to press his demands.

Video showed units moving around Rostov’s military and administrative buildings. Prigozhin met Deputy Defense Minister Col. Gen. Yunus-bek Yevkurov and the deputy head of the GRU military intelligence service, Vladimir Alekseev, but demanded that a sit-down with Shoygu and Gerasimov.

Other videos on social media claimed to show Wagner units on the move from the Voronezh region, about 320 miles south of Moscow, towards the capital. All public events have been cancelled in Voronezh.

Can Putin Check Prigozhin?

Before Prigozhin’s appearance in Rostov, senior Russian officials tried to contain him with a series of warnings and messages.

The State security service FSB opened a criminal case against the Wagner leader, accusing him of inciting an armed rebellion. The FSB and National Guard special forces set up roadblocks around Moscow. Security forces were put on “high alert”, and the “fortress plan” to protect government buildings was activated.

The former commander of the Ukraine invasion, Gen. Sergey Surovikin — one of the military leaders who had worked with Prigozhin — sent a video message to Wagner Group mercenaries: “Before it’s too late, we must obey the will and order of the president, stop and return to your bases.”

Prigozhin was unmoved. He called on Russia’s National Guard, Rosgvardia, to join him or “things will go badly”.

The most promising politician appeals to the National Guard with an offer that is better not refused. Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of Justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice.

He continued:

All patriots of Russia, true patriots of the country, go out into the streets, we will find weapons.

This night we will solve the issue of traitors and criminals who disgraced Russia. Their names are Shoygu and Gerasimov.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov merely said, “President Putin has been briefed on all events around Prigozhin. The necessary measures are being taken.”

The Build-Up to A Rebellion

Wagner’s mercenaries and recruited ex-convicts had been used by Vladimir Putin and the Defense Ministry since November in the year-long assault to seize Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

Wagner’s “human wave” assaults were costly — Prigozhin said 20,000 of his fighters were killed. In the last weeks of the operation, Prigozhin stepped up his criticism of the Defense Ministry, claiming his men were being starved of weapons and ammunition and assailing a “monstrous bureaucracy”.

See also Ukraine War, Day 443: Russian Defense Ministry — Prigozhin is Lying About Bakhmut Defeat

Ukraine War, Day 436: Prigozhin Steps Up Attack on Kremlin Officials — “You Will Have Your Guts Eaten Out in Hell”

Far from establishing “victory”, the Wagner leader said the mercenaries would withdraw, as Ukrainian forces regained territory to the north and south of Bakhmut. He subsequently claimed that Russian conventional units fired on his men as they pulled out.

This week Prigozhin assailed Shoygu and Gerasimov, declaring that they have been lying to Vladimir Putin and Russia’s people about Ukraine counter-offensive.

He said Moscow was lying with its claims of heavy Ukrainian losses, and declared that if leadership was not changed, Russia as well as the invasion would be lost.

He said on Friday, “We are 25,000 [fighters], and we are going to figure out why the chaos is happening in the country. Anyone who wants should join. We need to end this mess.”

At the same time, he claimed that his rebellion will not affect Russia’s defenses in Ukraine: “This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not hinder the armed forces in any way.”

Speaking from Rostov this morning, Prigozhin continued the attack that the Russian leadership is acknowledging only a fraction of casualties in Ukraine.