Photo: CNN

Wednesday’s Coverage: 11+ Killed, 56 Injured in Russian Attack on Kramatorsk Restaurant

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1454 GMT:

The governor of Russia’s Ivanovo region has confirmed that the crew of an Il-22 communications warplane died when their aircraft was shot down during the Wagner Group’s mini-rebellion weekend.

The warplane was based in the region northeast of Moscow.

Governor Stanislav Voskresensky said:

I send my condolences and share in the bitterness of loss with the families of the fallen heroes. During military service, each of them demonstrated the qualities of a real officer: valor, courage, dedication, and loyalty to his oath to honorably fulfill his military duty. Eternal memory to the heroes.

The governor did not say how many troops were on board. The flight crew usually consists of five people, as well as two to four communications operators. The Telegram channel Fighterbomber, which is close to the Russian Defense Ministry, said there were eight people aboard the Il-22. War blogger Irina Kuksenkova reported 10 crew members killed.

Wagner reportedly downed seven or eight warplanes and helicopters during their 36-hour rebellion. Pskov regional governor Mikhail Vedernikov earlier said that two pilots of a Ka-52 helicopter were killed.

UK military intelligence assesses that the loss of the Il-22M warplane will have a “negative impact on Russian air and land operations” in its Ukraine invasion, as the Russian Air Force has no more than 12 of the communications aircraft.

The analysts summarize that the warplanes have played a “key role in orchestrating Russian forces in their war against Ukraine”. Last weekend’s loss threatens to “undermine Russia’s ability to command and coordinate its forces, particularly during periods of high tempo operations”.

UPDATE 1405 GMT:

Russian shelling has killed two civilians and injured two at an “invincibility point” in Kherson city in southern Ukraine.

UPDATE 1308 GMT:

Russian State TV promotes Vladimir Putin’s PR walkabout in Dagestan on Wednesday night (see 0638 GMT).

UPDATE 1251 GMT:

As the death toll rose to 12 — including at least three juveniles — from Russia’s missile attack on a pizzeria and shopping mall in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday (see 0614 GMT), the Russian Defense Ministry claims it killed two Ukrainian generals and up to 50 officers.

UPDATE 1233 GMT:

Hungary has effectively prevented Sweden’s accession to NATO at the 31-nation bloc’s July summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

On Wednesday, the Hungarian Parliament postponed ratification of Sweden’s bid to its autumn legislative session.

Agnes Vadai, a lawmaker with the opposition Democratic Coalition Party, wrote on Facebook that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — a long-time ally of Vladimir Putin — and his governing Fidesz Party would not schedule a vote on Swedish accession during Parliament’s final spring session next week.

Another lawmaker from the Democratic Coalition confirmed the delay in the vote.

Hungary and Turkey — where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is seeking leverage on the country’s Kurdish issue — are the only two NATO members who have not approved Sweden’s accession.

In the spring, both countries withdrew their blockade of Finland’s candidacy, with Oslo formally joining NATO on the bloc’s 74th anniversary on April 4.

“Never Again Alone”: Finland’s Path to NATO

UPDATE 1140 GMT:

Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reports further advances in the Ukraine counter-offensive.

Maliar said forces have gained 1,300 meters on the southern front, towards the Russian-occupied port city of Berdyansk.

“The enemy is pulling up all its reserves for defense, even a brigade of marines that at one time fled from Kherson [region],” she said.

In the east, the offensive has moved 1,200 to 1,500 meters towards Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka, south of the city of Bakhmut.

Maliar claimed, “The enemy is trying to hold the occupied positions, carries out counterattacks, but gradually retreats after suffering losses.”

UPDATE 1118 GMT:

The arrest of Gen. Sergey Surovikin (see 0647 GMT), the former commander of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, has also been confirmed by “three people familiar with the matter” to London’s Financial Times.

One of the source confirmed the report of leading Russian journalist Alexei Venediktov that Surovikin is “not home”: “There’s no contact with him, or with his guards, or his adjutant.”

Surovikin’s daughter insisted that “nothing [has] happened” and “everyone is at their jobs”: “[He] never appeared every day in the media and did not make statements.” Surovikin’s wife refused to comment.

A Western official summarized:

Putin knew about [the Wagner Group rebellion] in advance, as we understand, and so could prepare to a certain extent. He was able to see who did what on that day. And he’s now cleaning house….

We understand that there will be more people who will follow.

Asked by reporters if the Kremlin could clarify Surovikin’s position, spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “No, unfortunately not. So I recommend that you contact the Defense ministry: this is its prerogative.”

A journalist asked if Putin still trusted Surovikin. Peskov evaded the question by supporting Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the targets of the Wagner Group’s rebellion last weekend.

[Putin] is the supreme commander-in-chief and he works with the Defence Minister and with the Chief of the General Staff.

UPDATE 1116 GMT:

The latest Russian shelling of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine has killed a civilian.

The regional police force said the Russians fired on 11 settlements. In Zalisne, two apartment buildings, private house, and a bank building were damaged and power was cut.

UPDATE 0848 GMT:

The deputy of Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the former commander of the Ukraine invasion, has reportedly been fired from the Russian army.

Alexei Venediktov, the editor-in-chief of the now-closed Ekho Moskvy radio station, broke the news of Andriy Yudin’s dismissal. It follows claims that Surovikin, who has not been seen since last Friday, has been detained and that he was aware in advance of the Wagner Group’s mini-rebellion (see 0647 GMT).

UPDATE 0718 GMT:

“Western officials” say Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin planned to capture Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Ukraine invasion.

The officials said Prigozhin accelerated last weekend’s mini-rebellion after Russia’s FSB intelligence service became aware of the plot.

Western intelligence agencies assess that the plot had a good chance of success if it had not been discovered, forcing Prigozhin to pursue alternative plans for the mini-rebellion.

Gen. Viktor Zolotov, commander of Russia’s National Guard, said on Tuesday, “Specific leaks about preparations for a rebellion that would begin between June 22-25 were leaked from Prigozhin’s camp.”

Western intelligence agencies also learned about the plans through analysis of electronic communications intercepts and satellite imagery, according to a “person familiar with the findings”.

Western officials said they believe Prigozhin communicated his intentions to senior military officers, possibly including Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of the Ukraine invasion (see 0647 GMT).

US officials said Surovikin may have been sympathetic to Prigozhin’s aims, but not necessarily supportive of or involved in the rebellion. Other Russian generals may have backed the plans, they assess.

Hoping that part of Russia’s military would join the rebellion, Prigozhin gathered ammunition, fuel, tanks and armored vehicles, and sophisticated mobile air defenses. When he learned that the plot had leaked, he accelerated the launch of the operation, with his forces quickly capturing the city of Rostov-on-Don and advancing on Moscow.

UPDATE 0647 GMT:

Gen. Sergey Surovikin, the former commander of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, has been arrested, according to “two sources close to the Defense Ministry”.

On Friday, Surovikin appeared in a video in which, holding a submachine gun — he asked Wagner’s mercenaries to lay down their arms. He has not been seen since.

Prominent Russian military blogger Vladimir Romanov said Surovikin was arrested Sunday and is now being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo detention center. Alexei Venediktov, editor-in-chief of the now-closed Ekho Moskvy radio station, posted on Telegram that Surovikin has not been in contact with his family for three days.

On Wednesday, The New York Times — citing US intelligence officials — said Surovikin had advance knowledge of the Wagner Group’s mini-rebellion last weekend. Officials briefed on the intelligence said they are trying to establish if Surovikin helped plan Wagner’s rapid advance on Moscow.

The sources for The Moscow Times appeared to corroborate the intelligence. One said, “The story with [Surovikin] was not “OK”. [It was] for power. I can’t say anything more.”

The second added, “Apparently he [Surovikin] chose the side [of Wagner] and they grabbed him by the balls.” Asked where the general is now, the source replied: “We don’t even comment on this information through internal channels.”

Surovikin has been considered to be close to Prigozhin. Amid the power struggle between the Wagner Group head and the Russian Defense Ministry, the general was replaced in January as the overall commander of the invasion. However, he was still influential in the military, widely respected both by troops and by analysts of Russian operations.

UPDATE 0638 GMT:

Still trying to regain authority after last weekend’s mini-rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries, Vladimir Putin has done a photo-opportunity walkabout in Dagestan in southern Russia, 2,000 km (1,240 miles) from Moscow.

The managed appearance, in which Putin greeted supporters, followed the Russian leader’s address — alongside security and military officials — in the capital.

But analyst Monique Camarra of Kremlin File says, “They’ve lot a lot of young men in Dagestan. It’s a really bad sign if they had to show him shaking hands with ‘normal’ people.”

UPDATE 0614 GMT:

The death toll has risen to 12, including at least three juveniles, from Tuesday’s Russian missile strike on a pizzeria and shopping plaza in Kramatorsk in eastern Ukraine.

A body was pulled from rubble early Thursday as rescue operations were completed.

Another 60 people were injured, including one child.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukraine’s 2 1/2-week counter-offensive has advanced further against Russian invaders in both the south and east of the country.

Commander-in-Chief Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi told the Chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had “succeeded in seizing the strategic initiative” against Russian defenses built up for months.

Zaluzhnyi wrote on Telegram, “Ukraine’s defence forces are proceeding with their offensive action and we have made advances. The enemy is offering strong resistance, while sustaining considerable losses.”

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar pointed to liberation of territory on the southern front, moving towards the port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol: “Every day, there is an advance. Yes, the advances are slow, but they are sure.”

She cited this week’s recapture of the village of Rivnopol, the ninth liberated in the counter-offensive, with the completion of “mopping-up operations”.

In the east, Ukrainian troops continue to take territory to the north and south of Bakhmut, gradually moving towards encirclement of the city seized last month by Russia after a year-long assault.

Military analyst Oleksander Musiyenko explained, “It makes no sense to enter Bakhmut itself now. The risk is too great. But in the east, Ukraine has gradually taken over the initiative. Ukraine has improved its tactical positions without sending in significant reserves.”