Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hosts Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, June 11, 2023

Saturday’s Coverage: Ukrainian Forces Advance in East

Map: Institute for Study of War

UPDATE 1443 GMT:

The Ukraine military’s 68th Jaeger Brigade claims that it has liberated the village of Blahodatne in the southwest of the Donetsk region, near the border of the Zaporizhzhia region.

UPDATE 0940 GMT:

Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu has tried to assert control of the Wagner Group and other Russian mercenaries, with a decree requiring all “volunteer detachments” to conclude a contract with the Ministry before July 1.

Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov said the measure will give the “volunteers” the necessary legal status for operations, ensuring a uniform approach to the organization and performance of tasks.

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin has been embroiled in a months-long feud with the Ministry and military commanders, assailing the “monstrous bureaucracy”, even as Wagner’s mercenaries fought for six months — with at least 20,000 fighters killed — in an assault on Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

Prigozhin quickly hit back at the Ministry’s decree, “Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoygu.”

The mercenary leader maintained that Wagner was integrated into the overall system and that its command structure will be damaged by reporting to the Defense Minister.

“Shoygu cannot properly manage military formations,” Prigozhin said.

UPDATE 0844 GMT:

Complementing commitments from other countries (see 0748 GMT), the UK has pledged £16 million ($20.1 million) in aid for the flooded Kherson region in southern Ukraine, following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam.

London is allocating £10 million to the Red Cross Movement, £5 million to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and £1m to the International Organisation for Migration.

The UK is also sending boats, community water filters, water pumps, and waders to Ukraine.

UPDATE 0803 GMT:

Russian authorities have detained another US citizen.

Musician Michael Travis Leake, a former paratrooper who has lived in Russia since 2010, has been arrested on suspicion of drug trafficking. Russian media say he is suspected of selling mephedrone, a narcotic similar to cocaine and MDMA.

A Moscow court ordered Leake, the lead of the band Lovi Noch, has ordered two months of pre-trial detention. The charges carry a prison sentence of up to 20 years.

Russian security personnel detained basketball star Brittney Griner days after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and sentenced her to nine years in prison over vape canisters containing cannabis oil. She was exchanged in December for the convicted Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.

Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was seized at the end of March in Yekaterinburg, as he was working on a story about local reaction to the invasion and the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. He is awaiting trial on espionage charges.

Paul Whelan, a former Marine and senior manager of global security and operations for a US firm, was arrested in December 2018 and is serving a 16-year sentence.

UPDATE 0748 GMT:

During his visit to Kyiv on Saturday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged C$10 million (S7.46 million) in flood relief, following Tuesday’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region in southern Ukraine.

Trudeau said, “There is absolutely no doubt in our minds that the destruction of the dam was a direct consequence of Russia’s decision to invade a peaceful neighbor.”

He said he was certain that the Russian will be held accountable for their actions.

On Friday, the Netherlands and Japan made similar pledges of humanitarian aid.

The UN’s head of humanitarian operations, Martin Griffiths, said 700,000 people are in need of drinking water. He echoed Ukrainian officials’ warnings of 500,000 hectares of agricultural land becoming “desert”, speaking of a “cascade of problems” such as lower grain exports, higher global prices, and less food for millions in need.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has confirmed that Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia’s 15 1/2-month invasion has begun.

Zelenskiy said on Saturday at a joint press conference in Kyiv with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “Counteroffensive and defensive actions are taking place in Ukraine: at this stage I will not talk in detail.”

The President knocked back Russian propaganda, including a declaration of Vladimir Putin, that Ukrainian operations in the east and south of the country have already failed.

“It’s interesting what Putin said about our counteroffensive. It is important that Russia always feels this: that they do not have long left, in my opinion,” Zelenskiy said.

Noted he was in daily contact with military commanders, including head of the armed forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi, he said, “Everyone is positive now – tell that to Putin!”

The US-based Institute for the Study of War assessed on Saturday afternoon that Ukrainian forces are engaged in counter-offensive operations in at least four areas — the most significant attacks since the liberation of much of northeast and part of southern Ukraine last autumn.

While Ukrainian officials have said little about their assault, military spokesperson Col. Serhii Cherevatyi noted an advance of up to 1.4 km (.87 miles) in areas near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine. Russian military reported Ukrainian advances to the northwest and northeast of the city, seized by Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group last month after Moscow’s year-long assault.

The Russian observers reported Ukrainian activity in the neighboring Luhansk region near Bilohorivka. The Russian Defense Ministry and military bloggers spoke of attacks on the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia.

On the southern front, geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian gains in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region, southwest and southeast of Orikhiv.

The ISW that, unsurprisingly, Ukrainian attackers are taking casualties against some of Russia’s best units. But it poured cold water on Russian exaggerations — including fake and distorted footage — of the losses.

The Russian military remains dangerous and Ukrainian forces certainly face a hard fight, but Ukraine has not yet committed the vast majority of its counteroffensive forces and Russian defenses are not uniformly strong along all sectors of the front line.

UK military intelligence echoed the ISW’s assessment, saying “significant” Ukrainian operations have “likely made good progress” and “penetrated the first line of Russian defences”.

The analysts said, in some areas, “Ukrainian progress has been slower”. Russia’s defense has been “mixed”, with some units “likely conducting credible maneuver defence operations while others have pulled back in some disorder…as they withdraw through their own minefields”.