Flooding near the House of Culture in Russian-occupied Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson regime in southern Ukraine, after the nearby dam was demolished, June 6, 2023
UPDATE, JUNE 8:
I joined Times Radio’s Rosie Wright on Thursday morning to discuss whether the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dam will impede the imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south and east of the country.
The chat begins with a review of today’s meeting between US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the military aid to Ukraine from an international coalition.
See also Who Gains From Destroying A Dam, Lives, and the Environment in Southern Ukraine?
UPDATE 1552 GMT:
I also spoke with France 24 English, assessing what we know so far about the attack on the Nova Kakhovka Dam, the damage, and the political implications.
Why would the Russians want to destroy this dam, threatening civilians, threatening civilians, threatening environmental damage for decades?
It’s quite simply because Ukraine is in the preparatory phase of a counter-offensive with attacks not only in the east but in the south. To hold up a Ukrainian offensive with the movement of armored vehicles, you flood the area.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: I joined Ireland’s RTE Radio 1 on Wednesday to analyze the “environmental war” in the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka Dam and Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant in southern Ukraine.
Following a report from Lindsay Hilsum of the UK’s Channel 4 News, I speak to Claire Byrne about what we know so far about the attack on the dam; the political and military calculations around the incident; and what is likely to happen, from Ukraine’s counter-offensive to Russia’s increasing isolation — and perhaps desperation — over its invasion.
Listen to Discussion from 8:08
The most logical explanation — not proven, but the most logical explanation — is that someone put a lot of explosives on that dam. And there’s only one side in this invasion that can do that.
I also analyze the news that a European service told US intelligence in June 2022 of a Ukrainian military plan to sabotage the Nord Stream pipelines from Russia to Germany, which were attacked three months later.
I put the leaked document into context, urging caution about any conclusion of responsibility.
It is plausible that Ukraine blew up the Nord Stream pipelines, but this evidence is not conclusive — which is exactly what the investigations by Sweden, Denmark, and Germany have said so far.
[Editor’s Note: Perhaps needless to say, this framing of the Ukrainian advance in the east of the country is Russian propaganda.]
Dr. Lucas believes the counter-offensive hasn’t begun. But doesn’t it stand to reason that Ukraine destroyed the dam in an effort to mask what appears to be a failed counter-offensive? According to Russian reports, Ukraine’s attacks in Donetsk and on other contact lines in the last three days have resulted in kill ratios of about 40 to 1. Russia claims 3,600 Ukrainians and 72 Russians were killed in just one day of fighting, and dozens of Western-supplied tanks and other military vehicles were destroyed. Seven of those tanks were Leopard tanks, according to Russia’s MoD. Why has this not been reported on France24 and the BBC? I have not seen any reports countering these claims. If these attacks and figures are correct, the counter-offensive has already begun.