International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi with Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Tehran, March 4, 2023
I joined the BBC World Service on Sunday to analyze the agreement between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran to lift Tehran’s restrictions on IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities.
Listen from 5:28
See also Will Iran Lift Its Restrictions on Nuclear Inspections?
I summarize the issues including the discovery of 83.7% enriched uranium; historical inspections of uranium found at undeclared sites; and Iran’s confiscation of video, removal of cameras, and denial of access to sites and individuals.
I add the caution that, in contrast to IAEA head Rafael Grossi’s declaration of the agreement, Iranian officials are already putting out caveats.
If people stopped drinking kool-aids and took off the rose colour sunglasses maybe they could actually understand iri strategy.
1. iri is trying to skip over another round of iaea board of governors meeting and the danger of facing snap back sanctions, only if it is for another few months.
2. Mullahs are desperate to boost morale of rial vs US dollar even as little as that may be.
Unfortunately for mullahs, this strategy is short lived, but then again any extra month is an extra month. Also, Putin will not sit idling to have pressure to be lifted from the west with any “deal”
My lowly view, if mullahs could reveal their innocence in nuclear file they would have done this a long time ago. khamenei, personally gains nothing from dragging this situation.
I agree with both of your points.
I have a lot of sympathy for front line diplomats(not presidents, PMa or heads of states), people like Grossi who are expected to deliver diplomacy when the rivals are just blatant murderers and rapists.
In one of the media events Grossi’s response to reporters was nothing but a bunch of incoherent gibberish.
Mullahs think they have the western bull by its horn, but they fail to see they themselves are being held in place by their balls being squeezed by anyone who cares to exercise that. If this turns into armed conflict don’t be shocked. Because thugs just don’t have the depth or even basics of what an “understanding” is, understanding of anything is beyond their compute.
I have said this before, I lived through it and seen it with my own eyes. Many of high ranking influentials of irgc today were street thugs with various criminal records pre-1979, many were literally pimps in brothel district*. Now, it is possible for a person to reach epiphany and reform themselves, but, have they? What does the evidence suggest? Unleashing criminal gangs on people in the streets is a sign of reform?
Given who these people are, the west may be more successful sending drug dealers and other outlaws to negotiate on their behalf instead of diplomats.
* When islamists took over in 1979, they closed the brothels, one might say naturally. Then, they had to do something with the newly unemployed(prostitutes, their pimps, etc). So, first, many of that enterprise ended up marring each other by force or volunteered to make an honest person out of them. Many of those men were absorbed into local “comiteh” a militia force that later formed or joined the irgc….. the rest is history.
And it appear to be working! Iran even got Grossi to state that any attack on the nuclear facilities would be illegal.
But closer cooperation can pave some sort of agreement, even if it is not the JCPOA itself.
How Iraq caused a currency crisis by paying Iran in dinars: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iraq-dinar-iran-undermined-own-currency-crisis4
“Desperate to avoid power shortages, Kadhimi’s government gave Iran billions of dinars. US sanctions however mean it can no longer access the dinars it needs.”
It may be temporary, but the rial has risen to less than 500,000 to the USD: https://www.bonbast.com/
Iranian traders selling dollars not buying them: https://www.mehrnews.com/news/5726691
JCPOA is dead , Trump withdrew from it, Biden said it is dead; congress will never agree to an agreement and will never lift the sanctions.
It is all smoke and mirrors for both sides. Mullas may be brutal rulers but they are not stupid.