A medic walks past a burning car after a Russian missile strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, October 10, 2022 (Roman Hrytsyna/AP)


EA on International Media: Facing Defeat, Putin Fires Missiles on Ukraine’s Civilians

Tuesday’s Coverage: Kyiv — Help Us Defend v. Putin’s Desperate Strikes


Source: Institute for the Study of War


UPDATE 1722 GMT:

Ukraine’s counter-offensive in the south of the country has liberated another five settlements in the northeast Kherson region.

The forces moved into Novovasylivka, Novogrygorivka, Nova Kamyanka, Tryfonivka, and Chervone on Wednesday.


UPDATE 1647 GMT:

The Russian media project iStories lists more than 90,000 Russian fighters as “irrecoverable” military losses — killed, missing, died from wounds, or disabled and unable to return to military service.

In August, US defense official Colin Kahl said Russia had lost 70,000 to 80,000 troops. US Defense Minister Ben Wallace said the losses exceeded 80,000.


UPDATE 1558 GMT:

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, has tweeted a photo of himself returning to Kyiv after his meeting with Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, Russia on Tuesday.

Grossi did not mention any substance of the discussion, including the status of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine. Russia has refused the appeals of the IAEA and UN to demilitarize the site and withdraw its forces.

Posing for Russian State TV, Putin said the situation was “of concern” and declared that Moscow would discuss “all issues” over the plant’s operations.


UPDATE 1126 GMT:

At least 9 people have been killed and 8 injured by a Russian strike on a crowded market in the town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine.

Mayor Vitalii Barabash wrote on Telegram, “Today is another black day for our Avdiivka. In the morning, the Russian evil spirits once again brought death to our land, sneakily, as always, shelling the central market with tanks and MLR systems during rush hour.”

Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said, “There is no military logic in such shelling — only an unbridled desire to kill as many of our people as possible and intimidate others.”


UPDATE 1108 GMT:

Ukraine’s Reintegration Ministry has confirmed that 37 Ukrainian children who were illegally deported to Russia have returned and been reunited with families.

The children were deported from Russian-occupied territory in the Kharkiv region in August.

The Ministry said the return process was “difficult” but “successful”.


UPDATE 1040 GMT:

A crowdfunding appeal has raised $9.6 million in 24 hours for the purchase of drones for Ukraine’s armed forces.

The donations will be used for 50 Ukrainian-made Ram II drones, unmanned aerial vehicles with a 3kg explosive payload, as well as three control stations.

Serhiy Prytula, who organized the initiative, said, “[The Russians] wanted to scare us but we united even more. Remember: never infuriate Ukrainians. Never.”


UPDATE 0746 GMT:

Russian citizens are searching for Jewish ancestry to flee Vladimir Putin’s “partial mobilization”.

One woman, speaking at a Red Cross center in Moscow, says, “Getting an Israeli passport is the only way for my son not to go to fight in Ukraine.”

Under Israel’s Law of Return, any person with at least one Jewish grandparent is eligible for Israeli citizenship, as are people who convert to Judaism.

More than one million of Israel’s 9.4 million residents have roots in the former Soviet Union. Immigration applications from Russia and Ukraine have tripled since the start of the Russian invasion of its neighbor. There have been 20,000 arrivals from Russia and more than 12,000 from Ukraine since the end of February.

In July, Russian authorities ordered the dissolution of the Jewish Agency, which helps Jews emigrate, accusing it of breaking the law.

But five new private agencies have opened to help Russians emigrate, and genealogists are being flooded with requests.


UPDATE 0726 GMT:

Russian forces have fired seven more S-300 missiles on and near Zaporizhzhia, where about 40 people have been killed by the attacks since Thursday.

Governor Oleksandr Starukh wrote on Telegram that rescue services pulled three people from the rubble of a residential building but “fortunately there are no victims”.


UPDATE 0712 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has used a visit by the President of the United Arab Emirates, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, to show that he is not isolated internationally.

Putin hailed Russian ties with the Gulf country as “an important factor of stability”, and he welcomed the recent decision by oil-producing nations of OPEC+ to cut production by 2 million barrels per day.

That decision bolstered Putin’s effort to break support of other countries for Ukraine by putting pressure on their oil and gas supplies.

The Russian leader avoided mentioned that tactic, as he said:

Our actions are aimed at ensuring stability in global energy markets to make both consumers of energy resources and those who deal with production and supplies feel calm, stability and confidence, to help balance supply and demand.

The UAE has maintained close business ties with Russia despite Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, standing aside from international sanctions on Moscow.

UAE State news agency WAM said MBZ, during his meeting with Putin, “affirmed” the Emirates’ aim to contribute to “strengthening the foundations of global peace and stability” and to “reduce tensions and find diplomatic solutions to crises”.


ORIGINAL ENTRY: Facing the defeat of its Ukraine invasion, Russia continued missile and drone strikes across the country on Tuesday.

Russian forces hit civilian sites and infrastructure. In the Vinnytsia region in west-central Ukraine, the Ladyzhyn thermal power plant was targeted by two waves of Iranian-made Shahed-136 “kamikaze drones”, suffering damage with six people injured.

In Lviv city in the west, an attack on “a critical infrastructure facility”. Governor Vitaly Kim reported missile strikes in the Mykolaiv region in the south. In the Dnipropetrovsk region in south-central Ukraine, Governor Valentyn Reznichenko said air defense systems shot down four missiles.

The capital Kyiv was relatively quiet yesterday, after recording at least six of the 19 fatalities from Russian attacks on Monday. Air raid sirens sounded in the morning, but there were no reported strikes.

In contrast, Russian forces again fired on Zaporizhzhia, where almost 40 people have been killed since Thursday. One person was slain, as a car dealership and educational institution were hit.

With Ukrainian counter-offensives advancing in the east and south, the Russian tactics are trying to knock out infrastructure for electricity, heating, and water as well as terrorizing civilians.

However, the approach has had limited effect so far. About half of the 108 missiles and drones used on Tuesday were downed by air defenses.

UK military intelligence assessed on Wednesday that 60% of the Iranian-made Shahed-136 “kamikaze drones” were intercepted.

These UAVs are slow and fly at low altitudes making lone aircraft easy to target using conventional air defences. There is a realistic possibility that Russia has achieved some success by attacking with several UAVs at the same time.

The analysts add, “Despite a reported range of 2,500km, the Shahed-136 only has a small explosive payload. It is unlikely to be satisfactorily fulfilling the deep strike function which Russia probably aspired to use it for.”

The head of the UK’s electronic intelligence agency GCHQ, Jeremy Fleming, said in an address in London on Tuesday:

Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilization of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation….We know — and Russian commanders on the ground know — that their supplies and munitions are running out….

Far from the inevitable Russian military victory that their propaganda machine spouted, it’s clear that Ukraine’s courageous action on the battlefield and in cyberspace is turning the tide.

Speaking to leaders of G7 countries on Tuesday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy thanked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden for provision of air defense systems but asked for more:

When Ukraine receives a sufficient quantity of modern and effective air defense systems, the key element of Russia’s terror, rocket strikes, will cease to work.

I am asking you to strengthen the overall effort to help financially with the creation of an air shield for Ukraine. Millions of people will be grateful to the Group of Seven for such assistance.