I joined Times Radio’s Anna Cunningham on Friday to analyze how China is maintaining a cautious line over Vladimir Putin’s failing invasion of Ukraine.
After a summary of the military situation, with Ukraine’s successful counter-offensive in the northeast, I turn to Thursday’s meeting between Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan.
I put the signals — with Putin referring to China’s “questions and concerns” and the Chinese statement never mentioning Ukraine — in the context of Beijing’s step back from military and economic support of Moscow.
And I explain how China’s priority is not propping up Putin in eastern Europe, but maintaining its interests in Asia — including at the expense of a declining Russia.
There are some good reason why the US cannot afford to allow China to invade and annex Taiwan:
1. The US sees Taiwan as an ally and the prospect of a liberal democracy being invaded by a communist state is anathema to the values held by Washington (even though it is happy to support dictatorship elsewhere)
2. Taiwan is home to most of the world’s semiconductor industry and the largest foreign exchange reserves. China cannot be allowed to control this.
3. US allies in the region, like Japan and S. Korea, would be highly concerned if the US did not act to defend Taiwan and would reconsider the US as a protector.
4. It would embolden China to be more aggressive elsewhere and give succor to US enemies like Russia, N Korea and Iran.
5. It would be devastating to US prestige and make it look like an impotent superpower.