Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine in early June 2022

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Friday’s Coverage: Russia Pauses Its Invasion

Source: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1343 GMT:

A BBC investigation points to the high death toll among Russia’s invasion force, examining the 4,515 fatalities which it confirmed.

Among the dead are at least 773 officers, including at least four generals, 21 colonels, 126 majors, and 568 junior officers. The BBC also notes the deaths of 49 pilots and crew of the Russian Air Forces.

The Ukraine military says Russia has lost more than 37,000 troops, including more than a dozen generals.

Moscow has made no statement on casualties since March.

UPDATE 1225 GMT:

Serhiy Bratchuk is the latest Ukrainian official to speak about Russian forces firing munition on farmlands to set crops on fire.

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Bratchu, the spokesperson for the Odesa regional military administration in southern Ukraine, showed photos of fields ablaze and scorched.

Due to shelling with incendiary shells, large-scale fires occur every day in the fields, in protective strips, and in forests throughout the territory of the region. In addition, Russian troops do not allow locals to put out fires, destroying granaries and equipment.

UPDATE 1221 GMT:

Russian shelling on Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine has killed two people and injured three.

A girl is among those slain, with her wounded father in hospital.

Ukrainian MP Kira Rudik reports casualties from Russian fire on Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine:

UPDATE 1027 GMT:

Germany is pressing Canada to deliver a turbine for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, with Russia insisting that supplies depend on its arrival.

The turbine is undergoing maintenance work at a Canadian site of the German manufacturer Siemens, with a 10-day session scheduled to begin on Monday.

Ukrainian energy official Serhiy Makogon said this week that Europe can cover the reduced volume of gas with flows through Ukraine and Poland.

We ask Canada to transfer the Gazprom turbine not to Germany, but to Ukraine. We will pass it on to the Russian Federation. Maybe. After victory.

But German officials say they have been in contact with Canadian counterparts to ensure the turbine is returned to Europe. German Government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said Berlin has received “positive signals”.

UPDATE 1002 GMT:

The US-based Institute for the Study of War continues to assess that Russian forces are in an “operational pause” in eastern Ukraine, after the costly effort to seize the Luhansk oblast.

Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai has pushed back on the assessment, noting the Russian shelling of settlements and deployment of additional tank units: “Fierce battles are going on in several villages on the region’s border. The Russians are relying on tanks and artillery to advance, leaving scorched earth.”

ISW stands its ground:

[The Russian military] have naturally and necessarily ceased efforts to conduct large-scale offensive operations in this sector while they reorganized, reinforce, and resupply their tired troops—in other words, they are in an operational pause in this sector.

Recognizing the danger of allowing the Ukrainians to seize the initiative and go over to an offensive of their own, however, Russian forces continue to conduct more-limited offensive operations in this sector and elsewhere along the front line.

On Saturday Russia attacked the city of Druzhkivka with a missile, damaging a hospital, the Palace of Culture, residential buildings, and a playground were damaged. Information on casualties is awaited.

The Russians fired at a railway station in Chasovoy Yar, injuring several people. Overnight attacs on Hirnyk injured two civilians, cut power lines, and damaged residential buildings and infrastructure. Parts of Svitlodar are also under fire. In Slovyansk, a home was targeted, burying the owner under rubble.

UPDATE 0715 GMT:

Kazakhstan has broken from Moscow by announcing that it will supply oil to Europe, using routes that bypass Russia.

Russian media report that Kazakhstan will increase the flow of oil via Trans-Caspian shipping.

Currently, about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports move via the Caspian Pipeline to the terminal in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.

Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic, has been within the Russian sphere of influence. At the start of 2022, Moscow sent troops to support the Tokayev Government against nationwide protests over economic and political issues.

Output in far eastern Russia also is down amid Japan’s restrictions.

UPDATE 0644 GMT:

Amid the pullout of numerous international companies causing shortages, Russian officials are pursuing a propaganda campaign to convince residents that only local products are needed.

UPDATE 0633 GMT:

Despite the assessment of military analysts that Russia has paused its ground offensive in eastern Ukraine, the Russians are maintaining their shelling, says Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai.

“They are not stopped even by the fact that civilians remain there, dying in houses and yards,” Haidai explained.

Five civilians were killed on Friday in Russian strikes on Bakhmut and Siversk in the Donetsk region, said the officie of Ukraine’s Prosecutor General.

Three people, including a 12-year-old boy, were injured.

Exiled Sieiverodonetsk Mayor Oleskandr Stryuk noted that much of the city’s infrastructure has been destroyed by Russian bombardment.

This is impossible until the city is de-occupied and Ukrainian control is restored and a planning project is put in place. In the meantime, the situation with sanitation will be catastrophic.

UPDATE 0627 GMT:

A “US senior defense official” has told the press that Washington is sending four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Ukraine.

The Biden Administration dispatched the first eight HIMARS last month. Ukrainian officials say they are significant in countering Russia’s invasion and advantage in artillery, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy summarizing on Thursday:

Our defenders inflict very noticeable strikes on depots and other spots that are important for the logistics of the occupiers. And this significantly reduces the offensive potential of the Russian army. The losses of the occupiers will only increase every week, as will the difficulty of supplying them.

UPDATE 0604 GMT:

A US diplomat says American officials have identified at least 18 “filtration sites” set up by Russian forces to detain and forcibly deport Ukrainian civilians to Russia.

Courtney Austrian, the deputy head of the US mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, noted that preparations for the camps were made before Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

She told an OSCE conference that Russian officials — with the help of proxy groups — set up the “filtration camps” in schools, sports centers and cultural institutions in recently-occupied parts of Ukraine.

People who have been in the “filtration centers” have testified about interrogations, beatings, torture, and disappearances. Some Ukrainians have been sent on to cities across Russia, including to regions near China or Japan

Austrian said of the pre-invasion preparations, “Russian officials likely created lists of Ukrainian civilians deemed threatening to Russia’s control of Ukraine, including anyone with pro-Ukraine views, such as political figures and activists, as well as security personnel, for detention and filtration.

The Ukraine Government says about 1.6 million people have been forcibly relocated to Russia — including about 250,000 children.

Austrian said, “Let me be clear: All those responsible for forced transfers of Ukrainian civilians to Russia will be identified and held to account for violations of international law.”

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Ukrainian officials have signaled the escalation of their counter-offensive to reclaim the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in southern Ukraine from Russia’s invasion and occupation.

On Friday, Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk asked all residents in two regions to “evacuate by all possible means”. She said there will be a “harsh battle” as the Ukrainian army will be “de-occupying these territories”.

No matter how difficult it is in the territory that is currently under the control of the Ukrainian government…staying in the territory of the Kherson or Zaporizhzhia regions is many times worse and many times more dangerous.

The Russians seized all of Kherson and part of Zaporizhzhia in the opening days of the February 24 invasion. They have indicated they will pursue de facto annexation, installing Russian officials in the local administrations and pursuing economic and social measures to replace the Ukrainian system, education, and culture.

But they faced resistance from residents as soon as they seized the territory. Ukrainian partisans have followed with sabotage and attacks, including successful and attempted assassinations. And Ukraine’s military has begun retaking villages in the past month.

In their latest operations, Ukrainian forces destroyed two Russian command posts in Kherson, said Natalia Humeniuk, a spokesperson for the joint southern command of the Ukraine military.

Deputy Prime Minister Vereshchuk pledged:

Even if [civilians] are deported to Russia, we will still find an opportunity to help people return. Even if we have to go through the Crimea, when we are talking about the Kherson region — this must be done, we must move in this direction.

We must look for an opportunity to evacuate, because our Armed Forces will de-occupy. These will be huge battles. I don’t want to scare anyone, everyone already understands everything.