A Ukrainian serviceman in the east of the country

I joined Australia’s ABC on Wednesday to explain how Russia’s “Plan B”, seeking to occupy more territory in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, is stalling after less than 72 hours.

First, I tell Beverley O’Connor of the latest situation besieged Mariupol in the southeast, where Ukrainian defenders are still refusing to surrender and 120,000 civilians are at risk. Then we discuss the situation in the east, and whether a second failure — after “Plan A” did not conquer most of Ukraine and overthrow the Zelenskiy Government — would bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

I also navigate the issue of international military aid: is this half-full, helping Ukraine push back Putin’s invasion, or a half-empty provision that means the country and its civilians are being sacrificed?

Listen to Discussion from 20:31

See also EA on BBC: The Next Phase of Putin’s War on Ukraine

The early signals are that, just as they failed in the north, the Russians are going to have great difficulties organizing the campaign that is needed to expand significantly beyond their proxy areas in the Donbas.

So do they stick with they seized since 2014, Crimea in south and parts of Donbas? But….

Vladimir Putin could have gotten a better deal 56 days ago at the start of the invasion. Because Ukraine has been able to resist and hold out, it will set out much tougher terms now.