EA on China Radio International: War in Ukraine is Not About “Regime Change” in Russia

EA on Monocle 24: Ukraine War — Zelenskiy’s Real Meaning of “Neutral Status”

How Will Ukraine-Russia Negotiations Go? Look to Game Theory for Answers.

Monday’s Coverage: Ukraine War, Day 33: Zelenskiy Sets Terms for Peace in Interview with Russian Journalists

UPDATE 1730 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has brushed off French President Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to organize humanitarian missions for the estimated 160,000 civilians still in besieged Mariupol in southern Ukraine.

Putin and Macron spoke by phone today. An official in the French Presidency said Macron raised the subject, but “conditions are not in place at this stage”.

The official added that Russia’s position remains tough, with Putin saying “he would think about it”.

UPDATE 1705 GMT:

Roman Hryban, one of 13 troops who told a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” as they defended Ukraine’s Snake Island, has been awarded for his services.

The border guards came under Russian air and sea bombardment on the first day of the invasion on February 24.

The guards were initially thought to have been killed by the Russians, before confirmation that they were alive and held by the attackers.

Their defiant reply to the Russian navy has become a rallying cry for the defense of Ukraine, commemorated in a postage stamp.

Hrybov was released from detention and is now home.

UPDATE 1605 GMT:

In a day of expulsions of Russian officials, Ireland has ordered the departure of four Russian personnel for “activities not in accordance with diplomatic behaviour”.

The Department of Foreign Affairs said the Russian Ambassador had been summoned to explain the reasons for the expulsions.

The Government continues to believe that diplomatic channels between Ireland and the Russian Federation should remain open. This is in the interests of our citizens as well as to ensure that we can continue to have a diplomatic channel of communication between Ireland and the Russian Federation in the future. This channel of communication has been important in the context of conveying our strong views on the Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine, which we regard as a serious breach of international law.

Earlier Monday, Belgium announced the expulsion of 21 Russian staff for spying, and The Netherlands of 17.

Other countries had already moved against Russian personnel suspected of being intelligence operatives, with Poland demanding the removal of 45.

UPDATE 1545 GMT:

“Senior US military officials” say Russia is beginning to withdraw some of its forces close to Kyiv, following the announcement by the Russian Deputy Defense Minister that Moscow will “fundamentally cut back activity” near the Ukrainian capital and the second city Chernihiv.

The officials said they had already seen shifts of Battalion Tactical Groups in “a longer-term move as Russia comes to grips with failure to advance in the north”.

But a US official cautioned:

We believe any movement of Russian forces from around Kyiv is a redeployment, not a withdrawal.

And the world should be prepared for continued major offensives against other areas of Ukraine….They are shifting gears … No one should mistake that for Russia ending the conflict.

UPDATE 1430 GMT:

In a significant retreat from his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has ordered a reduction in military operations around the capital Kyiv and the second city Kharkiv.

Amid Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul, Turkey, Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin announced the effective surrender of Putin’s ambition to occupy the cities and force the fall of the Zelenskiy Government.

Fomin said the Russian delegation will give more details on the reduction in military activity upon their return to Moscow.

Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukraine Presidential advisor and negotiator, said a treaty for “security guarantees” for Kyiv, as an “enhanced analogue” of NATO’s Article 5 collective defence pact, was discussed.

Negotiator Oleksander Chaly said on national TV, “We will not host foreign military bases on our territory, as well as deploy military contingents on our territory, and we will not enter into military-political alliances. Military exercises on our territory will take place with the consent of the guarantor countries.

The Ukrainian side also said there would be a 15-year consultation period on the status of Russian-occupied Crimea, coming into force only when there is a complete ceasefire.

Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky added Ukraine has proposed no opposition from Russia to Kyiv’s accession to the European Union.

He summarized:

We received proposals from Ukraine to consider their clearly formulated position on inclusion in the peace treaty. These proposals will be looked at in the coming period and delivered to the President, and an answer will be given.

The meeting between [Presidents] Putin and Zelensky is possible simultaneously with the preliminary signing of a peace treaty.

UPDATE 1420 GMT:

At least seven people have been killed and 22 wounded in a Russian rocket attack on a regional administration building in Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced the casualties during a video address to the Danish Parliament: “People are still going through the rubble.”

There were no military ambitions in Mykolaiv, the people in Mykolaiv presented no threat to Russia.

And even then, like all the Ukrainians, they became the targets for the Russian troops.

Eighteen of the wounded were pulled from the rubble.

Mykolaiv is on the Dnieper River, just to the north of the coastal corridor seized by Russian forces. The city has successfully repelled the Russian attempt at occupation for weeks.

Late for work, the city’s mayor was not in the building at the time of the attack.

UPDATE 0745 GMT:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called for a toughening of sanctions on Russia so they are “effective and substantial”.

If the sanctions packages are weak or do not work enough, if they can be circumvented, it creates a dangerous illusion for the Russian leadership that they can continue to afford what they are doing now. And Ukrainians pay for it with their lives. Thousands of lives.

Zelenskiy urged countries to maintain military assistance to Kyiv: “Ukrainians should not die just because someone cannot find enough courage to hand over the necessary weapons to Ukraine. Fear always makes you an accomplice.”

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov complained on US television, “We in Russia, we will feel ourselves amongst war, because Western European countries, United States, Canada, Australia…are leading war against us in trade, in economy, in seizing our properties, in seizing our funds, in blocking our financial relations.”

UPDATE 0730 GMT:

Both the Ukrainian military and UK defense intelligence report ongoing loca counter-attacks by Ukraine’s forces, regaining territory from Russian occupiers.

On Monday, the forces recaptured the town of Trostyanets, 30 miles from Sumy, in northeast Ukraine. Ukrainian officials also claim they retook Irpin, northwest of Kyiv.

Significantly, the Ukrainian military is also closing on Kherson in southern Ukraine, the first city seized by the Russians.

Military officials said seven Russian attacks were repelled in 24 hours, with 12 tanks and 10 combat vehicles destroyed. They said 17 air targets — 8 aircraft, 3 helicopters, 4 UAVs, and 2 winged missiles — were hit.

UPDATE 0724 GMT:

The Ukraine Prosecutor General’s office says 144 children have been killed and more than 220 wounded by the Russian invasion.

The Ukrainian crisis center UCMC reports the destruction of more than 60 Ukrainian churches and religious buildings and damage of 733 educational institutions by Russian attacks.

UPDATE 0720 GMT:

In a significant retreat in Thailand, the managing director of Army-owned Channel 5 has left after public outrage over the outlet’s plans to cooperate with Russia’s State news agencies on coverage of Ukraine.

Gen. Rangsi Kitiyanasap was also under pressure over disinformation pushed by the channel’s right-wing commentators.

Channel 5 had announced the agreement with the Russians to “balance” reporting from reliable international outlets such as Reuters.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Under pressure from his stalled invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s Vladimir Putin may be making a concession on Kyiv and the European Union.

As Ukraine-Russia talks resume in Turkey on Tuesday, the Financial Times reports that Putin is ready for Kyiv to join the European Union if it remains militarily non-aligned.

Moscow is also dropping part of its propaganda for the invasion, no longer saying that Ukraine must be “de-Nazified”, according to “four people briefed on the discussions”.

In a Sunday interview with independent Russian journalists, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenksiy said he is willing to discuss the country’s “neutral status”. However, he set conditions: no discussion of Ukraine’s demilitarization, and a vote by Ukrainians in a referendum on neutrality.

The Financial Times sources said a draft document for the Ukraine-Russia talks does not have any reference to Russia’s initial demands of de-Nazification and demilitarization”, or to legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine.

Ukraine will pledge not to pursue NATO membership or to host foreign military bases. However, negotiator David Arakhamia, the head of President Zelensky’s party in Parliament, said Kyiv will get “wording close to NATO’s Article 5” — the pledge of collective defense if attacked — in security guarantees from countries including Russia, the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland, Israel, and Turkey.

Caution Over Moscow’s Maneuvers

Ukrainian officials are wary of Putin’s maneuvers, concerned that the negotiations could be cover for Russia to recover from losses — estimated at up to 20% of its invasion forces — and to launch a new offensive.

Arakhamia said an agreement is close on security guarantees and Ukraine’s candidacy for the EU: “The only resolved [issue] is the type of international guarantees Ukraine is looking for, but…we still have to get the approval from the guarantors otherwise the deal will never fly.”

However, he cautioned that “in every single item there are unresolved points”, and noted a specific barrier in Moscow’s demand that its control over Crimea, occupied in 2014, and in two Russian-proxy areas in eastern Ukraine be recognized by Kyiv.

Zelenskiy has ruled out any surrender of territory, and Arakhamia said, “We will never recognise any kind of borders except as they are in our Declaration of Independence. This is the most critical point.”

Another “person briefed on the talks” cautioned that Russia is shifting its position almost on a daily basis, both in its military position and in its negotiating demands.

Kremlin spokesman said on Monday that Russia “can’t and won’t talk about progress” because “it could only harm the negotiating process”. However, he waved off any talk of an imminent agreement, “For now, unfortunately, we cannot speak of any significant achievements and breakthroughs.”