Russian leader Vladimir Putin with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Kremlin, Moscow, February 7, 2022

UPDATE, FEB 14:

I spoke further with BBC West Midlands on Monday about Vladimir Putin’s threat to Ukraine.

The discussion includes background on the conflict since 2014, Putin’s motivation, and the US-Europe-NATO response from military deployments to diplomacy to sanctions.

Listen to Discussion from 47:11

Putin’s an old guy who has been in power for more than 20 years. Russia is in a bad state economically. Putin faces significant opposition within the country.

So he plays the tough guy. This may be his last chance to carve out a legacy. And he believe that there is no such thing as an independent Ukraine: for him, it’s part of “Greater Russia”.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, FEB 11: I joined Pakistan’s PTV World on Friday to analyze the latest developments around Ukraine and the threat of Russian leader Vladimir Putin to invade the country.

Watch from 22:32:

In the 15-minute discussion with Omar Khalid Butt, I consider Russia’s military deployment, the diplomatic measures with Putin, and the talks among the US, Europe, and NATO to deter an invasion.

However, that is only Stage One: what is to be done about Russia’s ongoing hybrid warfare inside Ukraine?

An invasion is up to one man: Vladimir Putin.

In recent weeks, his gamble has backfired. We have seen the US, Europe, and NATO — perhaps belatedly — coming together on the idea that Ukraine must be defended. You’re seeing the frustration in Moscow that they haven’t been able to split the US from Europe or European countries from each other.