Vladimir Putin announces Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, February 24, 2022

I joined Turkey’s ANews and India’s WION TV on Saturday to analyze how a short-term occupation by Vladimir Putin’s forces of Ukraine could turn into a defeat for Putin and Russia.

I evaluate the military situation in the context of Ukraine’s resistance and likely insurgency, with other countries in position to provide overt and covert support. I then explain how insurgency combined with economic pressure could lead to Putin sacrificing Russia for his personal campaign to conquer the Ukrainians.

Watch ANews

The discussion begins with a dissection of Putin’s propaganda and disinformation about “Nazis” and “genocide” in Ukraine.

Putin tries to make all Ukrainians, or at least the vast majority, “neo-Nazis” to rationalize his position that Ukraine should not exist as an independent state.

Watch WION TV

We have parallel paths: that of the military, and that over the economy and information, where I think Putin has already lost even as he tries to make Ukraine part of greater Russia….

When Putin invaded Ukraine, he changed the narrative. The idea that Russia is the victim, that it is in peril from NATO — that’s gone. There are very few people in the West, except for die-hard supporters of Putin, who hold to that line.