President-elect Joe Biden and Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, August 2020

Unease, trepidation, and frustration: these are the milder descriptions of the feelings that policymakers and academics have experienced throughout the four years of Donald Trump’s tumultuous Presidency.

Trump has taken a sledgehammer to the norms of global politics. His relentless assault on the post-World War II international order, his penchant for illiberal — again a mild term — world leaders, and his individual approach exposed systemic faultlines. Equating national interest with his personal and political fortunes, everything from Russian and Ukrainian assistance to Israel and Palestine peace was viewed through the lens of business: a ferocious zero-sum game of American profit and loss applied to global challenges.

Before the November 3 election, Joe Biden outlined that he would be different, revitalising the US role in the world and returning to an institutionalised American foreign policy. But he will face tough choices because of limited time, resources, and political capital, especially as he spends much of this to repair deep divides in American society.

Coronavirus: The Immediate Threat

The pandemic has intensified inequalities between wealthy and developing nations. Economic malaise from national lockdowns and restrictions of movement have hit the poorest countries, reliant on globalized supply chains, hardest. They can ill afford financial stimulus or State-sponsored furlough schemes, and are reliant on piecemeal loans from the IMF, World Bank, and other institutions to maintain their liquidity.

Multiple vaccines are now deemed safe for human use, but the scramble for doses will generate exasperation in capitals unable to gain sufficient access. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the board chair of the vaccine alliance Gavi, has criticized the race of wealthy nations to secure priority access and is calling for an equitable distribution based on medical need rather than economic might.

The US has been withdrawn from the global response, forfeiting leadership with Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the World Health Organisation. Biden faces the tall task of rebuilding confidence in the international system’s legitimacy to provide for the common good in a crisis. He has made progress by promising to revoke Trump’s decision to leave the WHO, but intense multilateral efforts are needed to reinvigorate an organisation which is too easily politicized.

Thus far, Biden has focused on defeating COVID-19 at home. On his first day as President-elect, he unveiled his COVID-19 Taskforce, and he later named Dr. Anthony Fauci as his chief medical advisor. The team are experts in virology and public health, but are not well-versed in global politics. There is no John Kerry figure as a Presidential envoy, spearheading global outreach and diplomacy.

If time is not dedicated to forging a global consensus on financial support and vaccine distribution, the return to “normal” will take longer.

Climate Change: The Omnipresent Threat

The Biden Administration will offer incentives to addresses challenges such as securing multilateral agreements, reducing emissions, and addressing climate-related crises.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO Director General, has bleakly stated, “Climate change is already killing us”. This is not alarmist hyperbole. Climate change has already triggered food and water shortages, mass displacement, increased illness related to air pollution, and heightened risk of chronic and contagious diseases.

Multilateral effors are required but in a fractured political world, there has been little room for maneuver to secure the required remedial agreements. However, the global community is acknowledging that the pursuit of collective action is the only solution. It has emphatically turned against Donald Trump’s position and, despite America’s three-year absence, held firm to the Paris Accords. Biden’s pledge to re-join is a welcome indicator that the US is once again serious about joining a solution, as one of the world’s two largest polluters.

However, making the bold and decisive steps required to change course will be politically challenging for Biden. In the Senate, a two-thirds majority is required to ratify treaties. Republicans will undoubtedly try to limit the scope of any international climate policy.

Trump’s disavowal of science and destructive actions have wrong-footed any US effort to combat climate change, with Washington ceding leadership to China and damaging its credibility. Biden must regain the initiative, not for an immediate recovery, but to build a consensus toward a longer-term contribution to a global solution.

US v. China: Danger and Challenge

China’s economic and political rise is altering the global balance of power away from a pre-eminent US and any unipolar moment. Biden must navigate a far more complex world of multipolarity between leading states, amid the risk of miscalculation and misinterpretation

The US-China relationship was in dire need of reassessment, and the logic that China would liberalize through engagement and inclusion in the global order proved errant. Trump took this and ran, calling out American policy and pointing to intellectual theft. At the same time, he initiated a trade war and undermined alliances.

Biden has endorsed a quasi-global steering committee for leading nations, promising to convene a “Global Summit for Democracy” in his first year in office. This will be a welcome indication for democratic allies that America is once again committed to collective action and work towards repairing relations. Biden has already reaffirmed regional commitments, confirming to Tokyo that the US-Japan joint defence treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands which are claimed by both Japan and China.

The choice of key ambassadors and other officials will reflect Biden’s respect and deference to career diplomats and their expertise. Antony Blinken, the appointee for Secretary of State, is the archetype of US trans-Atlantic multilateralism. He will tend to the “diplomatic garden” by reforging strong working relationships with key allies.

But China will continue to expand economic, cultural, institutionalism and military influence in its neighborhood, presenting a new structural reality to which the US must adapt. A miscalculation on any number of issues — Taiwan, contested islands and the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, Beijing’s One Belt One Road quest, and the development of advanced military technologies — could inadvertently escalate conflict.

Biden has committed to continuing some of Trump’s policies, which give him leverage with Beijing. Still, with the new President, more incentives for China and room for compromise is likely, given his preference for an institutional approach.

Challenge and Opportunity

These three fault lines and challenges make for a bleak starting point. But there is opportunity.

The election of Joe Biden offers a moment for reflection and global realignment, out of which collective solutions can be forged, multilateralism nurtured, and productive conversations established.

After four bewildering years, the hope for policymakers, academics, and the casual observers of global politics is that the arena will now begin to be a bit more predictable and, yes, boring.