Joe Biden speaks to supporters in Scranton, Pennsylvani as polls open on Election Day
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UPDATE, 2125 GMT:
CNN has called Michigan for Joe Biden.
The Democrat now only needs victory in Nevada to confirm his victory over Donald Trump.
UPDATE, 2120 GMT:
Joe Biden has addressed the nation from the Chase Center in Wilmington, Delaware.
My fellow Americans, yesterday once again proved democracy is the heartbeat of this nation….
I‘m not here to declare that we won, but I am here to report that when the count is finished, we will be the winner.
Alongside running mate Kamala Harris, Biden said the Presidency “demands a duty of care for all Americans”: “I will work as hard for those who didn’t vote for me as I will for those who did vote for me.”
He said that “every vote must be counted”: “We, the people will not be silenced.”
UPDATE, 2045 GMT:
Donald Trump’s lead in Georgia has fallen to 78,429 from about 102,000, with a move from 92% to 93% of ballots counted.
The shift indicated the late influx of early and mail-in votes from the Atlanta area may flip the Peach State to Joe Biden.
UPDATE, 1955 GMT:
Data indicates the US Postal Service failed to deliver thousands of absentee ballots around the country before cut-off times.
The failure rate might be understated because 300,000 ballots were not scanned for deliver,y in an effort to speed up the process.
In South Florida, vital to Donald Trump’s victory in the state, 27% of mail-in votes may not have been received.
Trump defeated Joe Biden by less than 400,000 votes in Florida, with Biden sharply underperforming in the south compared to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016.
UPDATE, 1900 GMT:
CNN and AP have projected that Joe Biden will win Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).
Biden is ahead by more than 20,000 votes with more than 98% ballots counted.
The Trump campaign has said that it will ask for a recount of all ballots.
Biden now only needs to hold leads in Michigan and Nevada to become 46th President of the USA.
Electoral College Total: Biden 248, Trump 214.
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Biden now leads in Michigan by more than 37,000 votes with 94% of ballots tallied.
Donald Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has falled to below 460,000 votes with 80% counted.
There is no change in Georgia and Nevada (see 1200 GMT).
UPDATE, 1420 GMT:
Joe Biden has taken the lead in Michigan. With 90% of the vote counted, Biden has an edge of more than 12,000 over Donald Trump.
If Biden holds his current leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada, he will have 270 electoral votes and be the presumptive 46th President of the USA.
UPDATE, 1200 GMT:
The status of the US Presidential election with Biden on 236 electoral votes, Trump 213 (270 to win) — there are five states in play.
At the moment, Biden is favored to win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada — that would give him a bare majority of 270 electors in the 538-member Electoral College. He also is a slight favorite to take Georgia, which would take him to 286 electors.
Michigan (16): With early and mail-in voting coming in, Trump’s lead of more than 200,000 has dwindled to 26,000 with 86% reporting. Many of the outstanding ballots are from Democratic areas such as Detroit’s Wayne County, with 45% of its vote yet to be tallied.
Counting continues through the day.
Wisconsin (10): Biden has overturned Trump’s lead, largely because of early and mail-in ballots from Milwaukee County. The Democrat leads by more than 20,000 votes with 92% of ballots counted.
Counting should be finished within a few hours, except for provisional ballots.
Georgia (16): Trump’s large lead early in the count has shrunked to about 102,000 votes with 93% of ballots counted. The large majority of uncounted ballots are from the heavily-Democratic area of Atlanta’s Fulton County.
The New York Times needle tracker projects Biden to prevail by 1.6% in the final count, which should be completed today.
Pennsylvania (28): Trump has piled up a lead of 619,000 votes with 75% of ballots counted.
However, there more than 1.4 milliion uncounted early and mail-in ballots, expected to break heavily for Biden.
Counting will not be completed until Friday.
Nevada (6): The state was expected to remain with the Democrats, but Biden has a lead of less than 8,000 votes with 86% of ballots counted.
All the remaining is early and mail-in ballots.
Counting has been suspended until Thursday morning.
UPDATE, 0945 GMT:
With a rush of early and mail-in ballots from Milwaukee County, Joe Biden has overtaken Donald Trump in Wisconsin.
Biden leans by just over 10,000 votes with 89% of the vote counted. The remaining 11% could swing in favor of either candidate.
UPDATE, 0815 GMT:
AP has called Arizona (11 electoral votes) for Joe Biden.
Electoral College Total: Biden 238, Trump 213
UPDATE, 0722 GMT:
Donald Trump is speaking. He begins by thanking his supporters and saying “a sad group of people” have “disenfranchised them”.
He lists states he has won, and proclaims that he has also triumphed in Georgia, which has yet to be called by the networks.
He then protests that Fox has called Arizona for Biden and says, “We don’t need it” because of his early lead in Pennsylvania before an estimated 2 million early and mail-in ballots are counted. He also claims he is on the path to win in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump falsely attributes his tactic to his opponents, “They didn’t win, so they’ll take us to court.”
Significantly, Vice President Mike Pence does not endorse the declaration of going to the Supreme Court, “As the votes continue to be counted, we’re going to continue to be vigilant.”
It remains to be seen whether Republican leaders in Congress will accept or enable Trump’s threat, but one legislator, Rep. Adam Kinzinger, has already declared his opposition.
Stop. Full stop. The votes will be counted and you will either win or lose. And America will accept that. Patience is a virtue. https://t.co/iZr78QoPIH
— Adam Kinzinger (@RepKinzinger) November 4, 2020
UPDATE, 0720 GMT:
Fox has called Nebraska’s 2nd District for Joe Biden.
If the projection holds, the vital single electoral vote brings the election down to three states — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania — with Joe Biden needing to win two and Trump all three.
UPDATE, 0715 GMT:
Republicans have held another contested Senate seat, with Steve Daines defeating Gov. Steve Bullock.
UPDATE, 0635 GMT:
The Trump camp is reportedly furious that Fox called Arizona for Joe Biden.
Trump’s aides are insisting that Trump could still triumph, despite being 6.5% behind with 79% of the vote counted.
Other networks have not yet projected Arizona.
Trump will make a public statement shortly.
Trump is projected to win Montana (3 electoral votes).
Electoral College Total: Biden 223, Trump 213
UPDATE, 0620 GMT:
Democrats have held onto the Senate seat in Minnesota, with Tina Smith defeating GOP challenger Jason Lewis.
But Democrat hopes of taking control of the Senate are fading — they have only flipped the seat in Colorado and are on course to win in Arizona. Republicans, with a 53-47 majority going into the election, have taken back the seat in Alabama.
UPDATE, 0550 GMT:
Joe Biden has spoken to supporters, calling for the Constitution, the US system, and rights to be upheld with the counting of each and every vote.
Seeking to pre-empt a Trump effort to cut short the counting of mail-in ballots — especially in the vital states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — Biden said:
We feel good about where we are….We believe we’re on track to win this election….
It ain’t over until every vote is counted, every ballot is counted….
It’s not my place or Donald Trump’s to decide who has won this election. That’s up to the American people.
Trump has put out a far different message on Twitter, raising the prospect of his pre-emptive declaration of “victory”:
Twitter has flagged and hidden the message: “Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.”
UPDATE, 0515 GMT:
Joe Biden is projected to win Virginia (13 electoral votes), Minnesota (10) and Hawaii (4).
Donald Trump wins Texas (38) and Ohio (18).
Electoral Vote Total: Biden 223, Trump 212.
UPDATE, 0442 GMT:
Fox has called the key state of Arizona (11) for Joe Biden.
Biden is leading by about 8.5% with 75% of the vote tallied. If that holds, he will win the Presidency with wins in Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), and a single electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District or Maine’s 2nd Congressional District.
With the total of 270 electoral votes, Biden would not need to win Pennsylvania (20).
UPDATE, 0424 GMT:
Joe Biden has won California (55 electoral votes), Oregon (7), and Washington State (12), while Donald Trump has won Idaho (4) — and has finally been projected to win Florida (29).
Electoral College Total: Biden 192, Trump 147.
The Georgia Senate Special Election will go to a run-off between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican incumbent Kelly Loeffler.
UPDATE, 0338 GMT:
With Donald Trump leading in Ohio and North Carolina, the prospect of a result by Wednesday morning may come down to a Joe Biden victory in Arizona.
Biden leads by more than 200,000 votes (54%-45%) with 75% of the vote counted.
UPDATE, 0333 GMT:
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina has held off the surprisingly strong challenge of Democrat Jamie Harrison to retain his seat.
Graham looked safe in the summer, but Harrison’s appeal to many voters led to the most expensive Senate campaign in US history.
And the Republicans have their first gain of a Democrat seat: former university football coach Tommy Tuberville has won in Alabama from Democrat Doug Jones, who had triumphed in a 2018 special election.
UPDATE, 0247 GMT:
The first flip of a seat in the US Senate: former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) has defeated incumbent Cory Gardner.
UPDATE, 0311 GMT:
Donald Trump has taken a lead of almost 200,000 votes (51.2%-47.4%) in Ohio with 72% of the vote counted.
And Trump has moved into a slender lead of 25,000 votes (49.6%-49.2%) in North Carolina with 88% of the votes tallied.
UPDATE, 0228 GMT:
With 80% of the vote counted in North Carolina, Donald Trump is closing on Joe Biden as the last ballots — from today’s in-person voting expect to favor Trump — are awaited.
Biden now leads by about 84,000 votes (50.3%-48.5%).
UPDATE, 0223 GMT:
Donald Trump is projected to win Kansas (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Wyoming (3), Louisiana (8), and Nebraska At-Large (2).
Joe Biden has won the states of New York (29), New Mexico (5), and Colorado (9).
Electoral Votes: Biden 131, Trump 107.
UPDATE, 0156 GMT:
In Ohio, another must-win state for Trump, Joe Biden is ahead by about 300,000 votes (54%-45%) with 52% of votes tallied.
UPDATE, 0146 GMT:
Attention now turns to two other must-win states for Donald Trump: North Carolina and Georgia.
In North Carolina, Joe Biden is ahead by more than 250,000 votes (52.6%-46.3%). But The New York Times needle still projects Trump as the winner by 1.1%.
In Georgia, Trump has a large lead of almost 13% (55.8%-43.2%) with 26% of the vote in.
UPDATE, 0140 GMT:
Donald Trump is projected to win Missouri (10 electoral votes) and Arkansas (6).
Electoral Votes: Biden 88, Trump 82.
UPDATE, 0130 GMT:
AP declares that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been re-elected in Kentucky, defeated Democratic challenge Amy McGrath.
And the QAnon conspiracy movement has its first open sympathizer in Congress: Marjorie Taylor Greene, enthusiastically supported by Donald Trump, has won a House seat in Georgia.
UPDATE, 0110 GMT:
AP projects Rhode Island (4), New Jersey (14), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Illinois (20), Delaware (3), the District of Columbia (3), and Connecticut (7) for Joe Biden.
It projects Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), and Alabama (9) for Donald Trump.
Electoral Votes: Biden 88, Trump 66.
UPDATE, 0105 GMT:
AP projects South Carolina (9 electoral votes) for Donald Trump.
Electoral Votes: Trump 33, Biden 16
With 86% of the vote counted in Florida, Donald Trump has opened up a lead of almost 62,000 votes — 49.8% to 49.2%.
UPDATE, 0045 GMT:
With 75% of Florida vote in, Joe Biden is ahead by just over 140,000 votes.
But The New York Times is projecting that Donald Trump will eventually win by 2.8%, with the Hispanic vote in south Florida appearing to be decisive.
UPDATE, 0044 GMT:
AP calls Virginia (13 electoral votes) for Joe Biden. It calls West Virginia (5) for Trump.
Electoral Votes: Trump 24, Biden 16.
UPDATE, 0021 GMT:
Biden up 1.5% in Florida with 36% of votes counted. He’s doing better in the Tampa suburbs than Hillary Clinton in 2016, but not as well in Miami-Dade County.
But now Trump takes 1.1% lead with 42% counted. He’s winning rural areas big but appears to be losing suburban areas.
UPDATE, 0019 GMT:
AP calls Vermont (3 electoral votes) for Joe Biden.
Electoral Vote Total: Trump 19, Biden 3.
UPDATE, 0010 GMT:
AP calls Kentucky (8 electoral votes) for Donald Trump.
Electoral Vote Total: Trump 19, Biden 0.
UPDATE, 0000 GMT:
Polls have closed in the swing state of Georgia.
CNN projects Donald Trump win Indiana (11 electoral votes).
Electoral Vote Total: Trump 11, Biden 0.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: It is the most important US election since 1945 and arguably since 1860 on the eve of the Civil War. It is estimated that more than 150 million ballots will be cast for Joe Biden v. Donald Trump in the Presidential contest, 35 of 100 Senate seats, all 435 members of the House, and State and local officials.
But how to keep track of it all?
First, have a look at EA’s go-to guides.
Joe Biden is a 9:1 favorite to become the 46th President of the USA. Here’s why.
Biden has a commanding lead in two of the three states that decided the 2016 election — Michigan and Wisconsin — and is an 85% favorite in the third, Pennsylvania.
For a second term, Trump has to:
- Overhaul Biden in Pennsylvania
- And reverse Biden’s leads in Florida (Biden 64% favorite) and North Carolina (Biden 65%)
- And hold onto Ohio (Tie 50-50)
- And regain once-Republican states Arizona (Biden 70%) and Georgia (Biden 58%)
Essential Guide to US Senate Elections — The 13 Key Races
Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority, but Democrats will take control with a net gain of four seats (three if Biden triumphs).
Democrats will likely lose their seat in Alabama, but in 10 contests held by Republicans, the Democrats lead in five. One (Iowa) is a toss-up, and Democrat Jon Ossoff is closing on Sen. David Perdue in Georgia.
How Trump Could Refuse The Outcome of the Election — A 4-Step Guide
And if Trump is losing the Presidential vote? Here’s how he may try to cling onto his White House desk.
Planning Your Election Watch
The US is spread across several time zones, making the election watch an all-night process — provided the race is close.
2300 GMT (6 p.m. Eastern)
The first swing state to close polling stations is Georgia.
The count should be fairly quick. Counties started processing absentee ballots on October 19, and only ballots mailed from overseas may arrive after November 3.
But Georgia has a recent history of voter suppression, which may have helped the current Governor, ardent Trump supporter Brian Kemp, take office in 2018. Widespread early voting will have worked against this, but if the race is close, there could be twists and turns before a final result.
If Trump falls behind early here, the contest is all but over.
0030 GMT (7:30 Eastern)
Two more hurdles for Trump to clear, with North Carolina and Ohio closing polls.
North Carolina’s officials estimate that up to 80% of the total vote will be announced quickly, covering in-person early voting and mail ballots received by November 2. But absentee ballots that arrive late can be counted up to November 12.
Early results are likely to favor Democrats. If Trump has a surprise lead, that could bolster his plan to declare himself an Election Night winner, closing down further counts.
In Ohio, each county is required to announce results of early in-person and absentee ballots by 8 p.m. (0100 GMT). But Ohio counts absentee ballots that arrive by mail until November 13, and those results will not be announced until official county canvasses on November 14-18.
0100 GMT (8 p.m. Eastern)
Now it’s the turn of Florida and Pennsylvania.
Counting in Florida should be very fast, with counties processing absentee ballots weeks in advance and refusing most ballots that arrive after Election Day.
But some larger counties could still be counting through Wednesday. And Florida has a history of electoral complications — remember 2000? — that could further drag out the process.
Even more significant is the “tipping point” of Pennsylvania.
But the absolutely must-win for Trump does not begin processing any absentee ballots until 7 a.m. (1200 GMT) on Election Day. With half of Pennsylvanians expected to have used the option, the count could last through the week.
Election officials expect “the overwhelming majority” of votes will be counted by Friday, but the process could continue longer — all the way to a November 23 deadline.
Early results are expected to skew Republican, so the Keystone State could be central to Trump’s scheme to proclaim victory and cut off the count of mail-in ballots.
Also closing polls: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (Biden 55%), with its single elector.
Crowd at Donald Trump rally, Opa-locka, Florida, November 1, 2020
0200 GMT (8 p.m. Central/7 p.m. Mountain)
Three crucial states move from polling to counting: Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Texas.
Michigan (Biden 96%) appears to be out of reach for Trump, but early results are likely to favor Republicans — again, another pointer to a Trump declaration of victory if he has an initial lead over Biden.
Absentee ballots are not processed until November 2. State officials estimate the full count could take until Friday, November 6.
Wisconsin (Biden 94%) is expected to report its outcome by Wednesday. A rush of absentee ballots at the end of the count could swing the race decisively to Biden.
Arizona pre-counts early in-person and absentee ballots, and Election Day votes should be announced overnight. But in a close race, last-minute absentee ballots will probably not be reported until Thursday or Friday.
Counts of early voting may give Democrats an initial advantage, with Trump hoping to claw this back through the night.
Texas (Trump 65%) is a must-hold for Trump. Conversely, if Biden wins the Lone Star State, he has a landslide.
All ballots received by Election Night should be counted quickly, but absentee ballots are allowed to arrive as late as 5 p.m. on Wednesday.
Also closing polls: Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (Biden 76%), with a single elector.
0300 GMT (9 p.m. Central/8 p.m. Mountain)
The last two swing states — Iowa (Trump 65%) and Nevada (Biden 90%), each with six electoral votes — close polling stations.
In Iowa, most ballots will be counted quickly but absentee votes can tallied up to November 9.
Nevada mails a ballot to every registered voter and only requires that the votes be postmarked by November 3. But officials expect most results to come overnight, although the count can legally continue until November 10.
