Joe Biden is surrounded by supporters at a rally in Detroit, Michigan, March 9, 2020 (Scott Olson/Getty)
Editor’s Note: In April, EA WorldView and University College Dublin’s Clinton Institute will launch “America Unfiltered”, for the best in coverage of the US, Ireland, and the world.
With analyses, podcasts, and events, this will be a fresh, raw look at American politics, foreign policy and media at a critical time for those both inside and outside the US.
In our latest sneak peek at the project, the Clinton Institute’s James Doran complements the analysis of EA WorldView’s Adam Quinn on the state of the Democratic rate for the Presidency:
One of the classic cold openings on Saturday Night Live featured Kate McKinnon’s Hillary Clinton on her sofa, frustrated by a string of primary losses to Bernie Sanders in late March and early April 2016.
That year, following his inability to garner sufficient African American support and his limited success on Super Tuesday, Bernie Sanders’ campaign found a second wind in the Democratic Presidential race, via a stunning upset in Michigan that gave new momentum to the contest and extended it far beyond initial expectations.
The same was meant to happen in 2020 for Sanders. Following a stunning turnaround in support, Bernie went in the space of two weeks from the presumptive nominee for some to fighting for his place in the primaries against a resurgent Joe Biden.
Michigan would jump start the Sanders’ campaign again. The candidate pulled out of appearances elsewhere to focus his attention on the Great Lake State as the “most important” contest of this week’s six primaries.
But if much of the 2020 campaign has had seemed eerily like its 2016 counterpart, Tuesday night was a sharp counterpoint to that déjà vu narrative. Within minutes of the polls closing, networks were already calling Michigan for Joe Biden, an indication that Sanders was not even in contention.
Out of the six states, Biden won five, including a narrow victory in Washington where Sanders was favored. Bernie’s only win was in North Dakota.
See also How Biden Won His Showdown with Bernie — to Face One with Trump
In the coming two weeks, demographically and geographically, the setting favors Biden. States like Florida and Georgia – both with significant delegate hauls, are tilted far towards the former Vice President.
Barring an unforeseen development, it looks as though the Democrats have their nominee to take on Donald Trump in November. While Biden is not yet crowned, if this momentum continues, by the end of this month he will be the presumptive Democratic candidate for President.
Five takeaways from Biden’s latest surge:
1. The Nature of the Victory
Biden won comfortably in Michigan, with 53% of the vote vs. Sanders’ 36.4%. His victories in Mississippi and Missouri were even more comfortable, with 81% and 60% support respectively. In all three states, he won every county.
The widespread success reveals the nature of the coalition that Biden is building. To his continued reliance on African Americans and college-educated voters, Biden added to his base suburban resident, union members, and, most notably, rural whites.
Sanders’ 2016 support, especially in rural areas and union households, is fracturing. Even more importantly, Biden is establishing that coalition of voters which won the 2018 mid-term Congressional elections for the the Democrats. In 2016, Sanders won Missouri, a state with a 78% white majority state. This week, Biden overwhelmed him in every county by wide margins.
2. 2016 v. 2020
The numbers that underpinned the Sanders surge in 2016 were relatively soft, so his strategy this year was to build upon the enthusiasm and extend the support that he generated four years ago. But what appeared as support for the independent senator in 2016 now looks increasingly like it was a protest, anti-Clinton vote.
The fundamental premise of the Sanders campaign was that Donald Trump won the electoral college because he managed to defeat Hillary Clinton in the Rust Belt States. in 2016, Sanders won more support in those states than Clinton. So, logic dictated that Sanders was more likely than Biden to beat Trump in a general election scenario.
But on Super Tuesday and this week, Biden was more popular in these vital, traditionally blue Democrat states.
3. The Nature of the Democratic Party
Since Sanders’ 2016 surge, commentary has presented a Democratic party fighting among itself.
This was a battle for philosophical and ideological direction between the traditional “establishment”in Washington — led by insiders like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Barack Obama — and the “progressive” movement/revolution that spoke to the feelings of everyday Americans, the face of which was Bernie Sanders.
The midterm elections in 2018 dispelled this myth. Democrats won, not because of the message of Sanders and his followers, but because of candidates who won over Republicans and Independents in former Trump counties and districts.
With the rise of Joe Biden as party leader – and his significant level of support – this battle for the soul of the Democratic party is not as radical or divided as commentary has maintained over the past four years.
Consider what has happened in the last two weeks. After the Nevada caucuses, the case was that Biden was finished. But after his victory in South Carolina, Biden secured significant party endorsements heading into Super Tuesday. The majority of the Congressional party gathered around him, and former leading candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar stepped aside in his his favor.
The idea of a divided party gathering a testy brokered convention in July is well and truly a pipe dream for political nerds now. Democrats want a party leader that can beat Donald Trump. Overwhelmingly, Joe Biden has emerged as the voters’ choice for the role.
There is more to Biden’s support than electability. It is about the nature of the leadership that Biden represents.
The emergence of Coronavirus is a case in point. On the question of who voters trusted to handle a major crisis such as the Covid-19 pandemic, Biden led Sanders by clear margins in Tuesday’s primaries. In Missouri, 61% to 27% believed Biden was better suited to the task. His margins were 46% to 27% in Washington and 51% to 32% in Michigan.
More than just beating Trump, supporters wanted the kind of leadership Biden offers: stability, steadiness, and normalcy — the adjectives the former Vice President uses repeatedly to define his candidacy.
After the political upheaval of impeachment, a global pandemic, and increasing economic uncertainty, it is no wonder Americans just wanted some everyday security. Biden offers that; for many, a Sanders revolution does not.
The ideological battle that many thought would define the Democratic Party and this campaign has not come to fruition. Instead, the question of leadership has been the definition.
The picture at the head of this article is literally of my comrades protesting Biden for selling the people of Michigan out on NAFTA. He has not unified anything and will lose in November if the party pushes the left wing out.