Theresa May looks at the audience during her speech to the Confederation of British Industry, November 19, 2018
As UK Prime Minister Theresa May tries to push through the Brexit withdrawal deal with the European Union, I spoke with talkRADIO’s Julia Hartley-Brewer on Tuesday morning about the daunting obstacles.
We begin with a look at the warning shot fired by Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, upon whom the Government relies for a Parliamentary majority.
Then we consider the combination of the opponents within the Cabinet — the five Ministers who chose to remain rather than resign last Friday — and outside, including the “European Research Group”.
Can May save the deal and herself? Best projection right now is that the Government will lose the Parliamentary vote on the agreement — unless the Prime Minister caves to the hard Brexit-ers, in which case the EU is likely to reject any deal — and then May’s future will be in the balance.
If May gives way to the Group of Five, if she gives way to the DUP, if she gives way to the ERG, then the EU are going to push back against her.
She’s caught in a political vise, and I’m looking forward to the Houdini act she is going to pull this weekend.