President Erdoğan aims statement at both Assad regime and Kurdish-led groups
MONDAY FEATURE
This is “State-Led Extermination” in Syria
With pro-Assad forces threatening an offensive on Idlib Province in northwest Syria, Turkey says it will create more “safe zones” beyond Assad regime control.
Idlib is the last remaining major opposition area after pro-Assad offensives, enabled by Russian bombing, reoccupied East Ghouta near Damascus and other parts of southern Syria this spring and summer.
Turkey launched its military intervention in the northwest in August 2016, advancing alongside rebels against first the Islamic State and then the Kurdish canton of Afrin. The Turkish-rebel alliance now holds most of Idlib and parts of Aleppo and Hama Provinces.
The Assad regime has pledged to “regain every inch” of Syria. In January, pro-Assad forces took a slice of southeast Idlib.
Since then, Turkey has set up a ring of observation posts around most of Idlib. But last week Russian and regime forces bombed and shelled just outside the Turkish line, killing more than 30 people and wounding more than 50, raising concerns of a forthcoming ground assault.
Syria Daily, August 11: 30+ Killed as Pro-Assad Forces Step Up Bombing of Northwest
The area is home to an estimated 2.5 million people, many of them displaced from other areas of Syria. A pro-Assad assault would raise the problem for Turkey, which already has more than 3 million Syrian refugees, of whether it would open its border for more who flee the fighting and destruction.
Erdoğan: “More Areas Safe”
Speaking at his provincial headquarters in the Black Sea city of Trabzon, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said 250,000 people have already returned to areas taken by the Turkish-rebel advances.
“God willing soon we will have liberated more places and made more areas safe,” he said.
The President said diplomatic and military efforts in Idlib have been accelerated to avoid a “catastrophe” like those in other parts of Syria.
Erdoğan’s remarks can also be seen as a declaration of holding and possibly taking more territory from Kurdish-led forces, following the capture of Afrin in March.
Discussions are ongoing over the future of Manbij in eastern Aleppo Province, taken by the Kurdish-led, US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces from ISIS in August 2016. The city is mainly Arab, but Kurdish forces have maintained control in alliance with the local council.
67+ Dead After Buildings Destroyed by Ammo Explosion
[UPDATE: The death toll is now 67, with 35 injured and 12 pulled from the rubble.]
At least 36 people are feared dead in Sarmada in Idlib Province after two buildings (see map) were flattened by the detonation of ammunition.
White Helmets volunteers managed to rescue 10 people alive from under the rubbles so far, after the unknown explosion in the city of #Sarmada earlier today. The search and rescue operations continue for the missing. #Idlibs pic.twitter.com/XUmmoEZGoy
— The White Helmets (@SyriaCivilDef) August 12, 2018
Most of those killed were displaced residents of Rastan in northern Homs Province.
Local sources said the ammunition belonged to a merchant, Abu Yazan al-Homsi, trading on the black market. The cause of the explosion is unknown, with some unconfirmed claims suggesting a Russian drone strike.
YPG to stop demographic change, will target new settlers in Afrin: Spokesperson:
“The Kurdish military force in north Syria on Saturday said they would intensify their operations in the country’s northwest Kurdish enclave of Afrin and target new settlers to stop the demographic change.”
http://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/e6192e00-276e-4375-9a34-da5d3597397d
@Matt, and yes, this is me.
They’ll likely be driven out, as in Farah and Kunduz. But repeatedly revealing the failure of the government to secure its largest cities is of high value for them. Confidence with Kabul is quite low, even among anti-Taliban Afghans. Scenarios like this are a part of the reason why.
And manpower has never been really an issue for the Taliban. They kept it artifically low up to the end of the surge as any large gathering would be basically drawing a “BOMB HERE” pointer for the USAF. The drawdown of US forces and Taliban’s subsequent growth in territorial control gradually removed that necessity. Afghan MoD estimates Taliban has about 77,000 fighters, while the Long War Journal estimates they’ve now balooned to anywhere between 60,000 to 120,000. Estimates will vary wildly as they’re not a standing army, and their numbers expand and contract in accordance with the fighting season. Hard to imagine that whatever losses they suffer here are anything more than a very short-term problem for them. Especially if the claims of the Ghazni prison outbreak are true.
Manpower is more of an issue for the government, where ANSF numbers have declined for the last few consecutive years. That their recruitment comes disproportionately from rural areas is another problem, given that’s where they’re losing most territory.
BTW, if you’re on Twitter and want a levelheaded assessments and updates on the situation in Afghanistan as well as the broader Middle East, I’d recomment you and anyone else to follow @BillRoggio and @ThomasJoscelyn.
[And beyond]
Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on 4 Fronts: ‘a Catastrophe’
“Afghan government forces lost more than 200 officers and soldiers in fighting over the past three days as Taliban insurgents launched sustained attacks on four different fronts.
The hardest-hit area was the southeastern city of Ghazni, where more than 100 police officers and soldiers had been killed by Sunday, a hospital official said, and the insurgents appeared to be in control of most of the strategic city aside from a few important government facilities.
Ninety miles west, in Ghazni Province, the Taliban seized control of the Ajristan District. The elite army commando unit that had been defending the district disappeared for two days, and their superiors were uncertain of their fate. When they found out on Sunday, estimates of the dead ranged from 40 to 100. Twenty-two survivors were carried to safety on donkeys by rescuers who found them lost in the mountains.
In Faryab Province, 250 miles to the northwest, an isolated Afghan National Army base of 100 soldiers lost more than half of its men in a Taliban assault that ended early Sunday morning. The defenders said they did not expect to last another night.
And 275 miles east of the Faryab base, in northern Baghlan Province, at a base at Jangal Bagh on the strategic highway between Pul-i-Kumri and Kunduz, insurgents killed seven policemen and nine soldiers and captured three other soldiers on Saturday.”
They pay a price for all these assults. Likely that their losses were higher than the defenders. Their manpower is not unlimited.
The US has lost the war Matt
Very interesting the way you attempt to paint the Afghan war and your continuing fascination(some would say obsession) with it. Always so quick to post articles like the one above while completely ignoring others such as a US attack on a taliban command center while a bunch of their leadership was supposedly meeting just a few months ago and the elimination of dozens of their “shadow” commanders. Hmm. Guess those kinds of stories don’t fit a certain narrative so popular among some types.
I post an article relating to Afghanistan maybe once per month, as I pick through only the most influential developments. If bombing a bunch of their commanders fell into that category, Afghanistan would be a prosperous 21st century democracy. But 17 years have shown they have a pretty deep bench. The “negativity” of my coverage is no different than that you’d find from FDD, or most news sites’ coverage of the conflict. If you feel like there are major RS/ANSF successes that deserve covering here, you can share them with us yourself. Posting a link and copying 3-4 paragraphs as a summary isn’t hard or time consuming. Try it!
https://twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/1028679145398718464
“…Erdogan asks the audience to stand up and salute with his invention of #Rabia sign he borrowed from the street protests of Muslim Brotherhood in #Egypt”.
He though he would get Egypt, Libya and Western Saudi Arabia. He lost it all and now he is losing his currency/economy. Funny thing he thinks he can stand up to America while he has American troops on his land. Just a couple more tweets by Trump or a green light and more weapons to the Kurds and he might have a real coup on him instead of that fake show he put on last time.
Iran going through the same, they thought they would get Bahrain, Yemen and Eastern Saudi Arabia but they lost it all and then Putin just took over Syria from them completely. Iran lost it all and now is losing its currency/economy too.
In Arabic we would say:
الصراخ على قدر الالم
Israel didnt win in this either. Erdogan would have cut a deal to resettle the Gazans in Sinai. That plan was stopped by the 30 July removal of Muslim Brotherhood Morsi. He was in on it and he was also the first president in Egypts modern, post-monarchy, history to visit post-1979 Iran. Israel has a green light to bomb in Syria at will until the Iranians completely pack up.
The middle east traditionally has three regional powers, Arabs, Turks, and Persians. Obama was going along with the plan to cut up the arabs and expand Israel, Turkey, and Iran. Plan is scrapped now. Israel will have to deal with Palestinian demographics reality over the next few decades that will not be answered by prejudiced laws. Iran and Turkey headed for political turmoil from within. Arab states excluding Qatar are building and fixing what broke from the arab spring.
Here is a taste from Egypt:
http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-egypt-green-power-20180730-story.html
Here is a taste from Saudi Arabia:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/saudi-puts-its-money-on-tech-as-it-prepares-for-life-after-oil
Here is a taste from Dubai:
https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/expo-2020-dubai-will-expose-our-young-to-new-ideas-cultures-and-experiences-1.758986
I used the word taste because there is so much more. Nuclear plants in both Egypt and Saudi along with distillation and gas deals = jobs and stability again. Very glad Obama is gone and a more sensible foreign policy is prevailing.
Good luck everyone