I spoke with Joanna Bostock of Austria’s Radio FM4 on Monday about Lebanon’s first Parliamentary elections in nine years, looking at the likely results and — more importantly — what happens both inside the country and in the region.
Listen at 13:23
In a discussion before the release of the official vote count, I took issue with the simplistic headline racing through the mainstream media of “Hezbollah and Allies Win Victory”. In Lebanon, there are few sure alliances, and any claim of a Hezbollah-led majority awaits weeks of maneuvers and coalition-building.
So likely outcome for the internal situation? “Cloudy yesterday, cloudy today, cloudy tomorrow.”
Meanwhile, there are the far-from-small matters of Lebanon possibly being pulled into confrontation over the Syrian civil war, including a fight between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah — with the blowback destabilizing the fragile situation in Beirut.
Lebanon election: Hezbollah leader declares ‘victory’: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-44027973
“Reuters news agency said a tally based on preliminary results showed Hezbollah and its allies had won at least 67 of the 128 seats in parliament. Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri said his Western-backed Future Movement had lost a third of its seats.”