I spoke with Joanna Bostock of Austria’s Radio FM4 on Monday about Lebanon’s first Parliamentary elections in nine years, looking at the likely results and — more importantly — what happens both inside the country and in the region.

Listen at 13:23

In a discussion before the release of the official vote count, I took issue with the simplistic headline racing through the mainstream media of “Hezbollah and Allies Win Victory”. In Lebanon, there are few sure alliances, and any claim of a Hezbollah-led majority awaits weeks of maneuvers and coalition-building.

So likely outcome for the internal situation? “Cloudy yesterday, cloudy today, cloudy tomorrow.”

Meanwhile, there are the far-from-small matters of Lebanon possibly being pulled into confrontation over the Syrian civil war, including a fight between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah — with the blowback destabilizing the fragile situation in Beirut.