LATEST

FRIDAY FEATURES

Analysis: Is Russia Ready to Drop Assad?
Podcast: The “Rebooted” Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qa’eda, and the Syrian Rebellion


UPDATE 1910 GMT: A pro-opposition activist has posted a list of some of the claimed regime violations of the ceasefire on Wednesday.

The 27 incidents are across the country from Homs, Hama, and Aleppo Provinces in the northwest to the Damascus suburbs to Daraa Province in the south.


UPDATE 1900 GMT: Views of the al-Castello Road, the main route north of Aleppo — Assad regime and Kurdish militia YPG flags, but no aid:


As the ceasefire across Syria enters its third day, the first significant aid convoys are still held up on the Turkish border.

Two convoys of 20 trucks, carrying mostly food and flour, set off from the Turkish border town of Cilvegozu on Tuesday, However, they were halted soon after they passed the Turkish customs post on the border, 40 km (25 miles) west of Aleppo city.

The convoys are testing the public line of Russia, the main ally of the Assad regime, that it will ensure assistance to opposition territory as well as regime-held districts.

While neither Moscow nor the Assad regime have issued a statement on the convoys, “security concerns” are being invoked to justify the hold-up of the trucks.

Zakaria Malahifji, of the Aleppo-based rebel group Fastaqim, said factions will comply
with the plan to withdraw 500 meters from the al-Castello road, the main route north of Aleppo, so it is a neutral space for transport of aid. However, the regime must also pull back, he said.

The Assad regime has said it will block any aid deliveries to Aleppo which are not coordinated by itself and the UN.

“Things are taking longer than we’d hoped,” said David Swanson, spokesman for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. “Some groups are looking to gain political mileage out of this, and this is something we need to put aside.”

A second U.N. official said that deliveries to Aleppo had to cross numerous checkpoints operated by both opposition and pro-Assad forces, and that it was still unclear whether the aid could get through safely.

George Sabra of the opposition High Negotiations Committee said the regime’s insistence on control of aid was obstructing delivery.

On Tuesday, UN envoy Staffan de Mistura said ““We need to do more homework,” about the aid issue. A senior US official said there were some “technical issues” to be resolved, and that Washington was “pressing the Russians and, through the Russians, pressing the regime”.

Claimed Regime Violations of Ceasefire

Opposition activists continue to report regime violations of the ceasefire.

The opposition claimed regime attacks, including shelling and rockets, on Anadan and Qebtan al-Jabal in Aleppo Province.

Pro-Assad forces reportedly bombarded Housh al-Nasri in the East Ghouta area near Damascus, where there was fighting between the rebels of Jaish al-Islam and the Syrian military before Monday’s ceasefire.

Activists also maintain that a Russian airstrike killed six people and injured more than 15 on Tuesday night in a displaced persons’ camp in Homs Province, southeast of Palmyra, The area is near the frontline between the regime and the Islamic State.

The pro-regime site Al-Masdar effectively admitted violations on Thursday, declaring, “Syrian Airstrikes Hammer Jihadist Rebels in Northern Hama”. Citing a Syrian Air Force source, itt said attacks included towns and villages captured by rebels in their offensive from late August.

Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra), which is excluded from the ceasefire, has no presence in northern Hama.

Despite the violations, the killing of civilians has fallen sharply. The Local Coordination Committees reported only eight victims on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Syrian military asserted that rebels have breached the ceasefire 36 times in Aleppo, Hama, Damascus, and Latakia Provinces, including mortars, artillery, and sniper fire.

On Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed 60 rebel violations since Monday night.

Top US General Sceptical About US-Russian Deal

Amid reports of the Pentagon’s dissatisfaction over the US-Russian deal, the top US general in the Middle East has expressed scepticism over cooperation with Moscow.

General Joseph Votel, the head of US Central Commander, started with a supportive line: “I’m hopeful but I’m very realistic about what is before us.”

However, in a conference in Washington, the general then set out doubts. He said Russia’s objective is “not clear”: “They say one thing and we don’t necessarily see them following up on that.

While saying that the US military would “look for ways to make this work within the confines of the agreement”, he implicitly cautioned President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry:

I trust that our political leadership will do the right things and make the right calls [and that they have] a very good handle on that. Our job will be to look at how we do that with the Russians.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter and senior Pentagon officials questioned the US-Russia agreement before it was announced.

On Tuesday, Lt. Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, the commander of the US Air Forces Central Command, was hesitant about the proposed US-Russian Joint Information Center, to be established if the ceasefire holds for a week: “I’m not saying yes or no. It would be premature to say that we’re going to jump right into it.”

Votel echoed yesterday, “We have to see how this goes first of all…see what direction it goes…whether it actually pans out or not, I don’t know.”

<

Both Regime and Rebels Prepare for Breakdown of Ceasefire

Reports indicate that both the Assad regime and rebels are preparing for the breakdown of the ceasefire, planning renewed offensives in northwest Syria.

The spokesman of the Ahrar al-Sham rebel faction, Labib al-Nahhas, warned on Wednesday that pro-Assad forces are mobilizing in Latakia Province to attacking neighboring opposition-held Idlib Province.

The mobilization could be the cause for rebels to renew their own offensives in Aleppo Province and northern Hama Province. Local sources say rebels could also use an accumulation of regime violations, or even a US or Russian airstrike, as the reason for a return to battle.

Rebels captured territory southwest of Aleppo city last month, briefly lifting a pro-Assad siege of opposition districts. The Syrian military and foreign allies, enabled by Russian airstrikes, recaptured much of the area and restored the siege just before the ceasefire.

In late August, rebels launched the offensive in neighboring Hama Province, capturing four towns and a series of villages as they moved within 10 km (6 miles) of Hama city.

A pro-regime outlet claims this morning that the Syrian army is preparing its own “massive counter-offensive” in northern Hama.


Jabhat Fatah al-Sham Denounces US-Russia “Conspiracy”

The jihadists of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, have condemned the US-Russian “conspiracy” in the ceasefire deal.

The end result of this US-Russian [conspiracy] would be the sabotage of the Syrian Jihad, weakening its body and paralyzing its limbs in order to separate the Mujahideen [fighters] from the people supporting them.

However, JFS/Nusra gave no indication that it will defy the ceasefire.


Head of Russian Military in Turkey for Talks on Thursday

Russia’s Defense Ministry says the Chief of General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, will visit Turkey on Thursday to discuss military cooperation amid the Syrian crisis.

Defense Ministry spokesperson Igor Konasenkov said Gerasimov will confer with Turkish counterpart General Hulusi Akar.


Jabhat Fatah al-Sham: “We Are Embedded in Syrian Society”

Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, has cautioned against any airstrikes targeting the group, saying that they “embedded” within Syrian society.

In late July, Jabhat al-Nusra renounced its formal allegiance to Al Qa’eda, saying that the priority was the unity of the rebellion.

Since its aerial intervention last September, Russia has declared that it is attacking JFS/Nusra and the Islamic State, even as the large majority of its raids have been on opposition territory and other rebel factions. The US has also attacked JFS/Nusra since its first bombings in September 2014.

Under the US-Russian plan implemented this week, an intelligence-sharing center will be set up for attacks on JFS/Nusra, as well as ISIS, if a ceasefire holds until next Monday.

JFS spokesman Abu Sulayman told the BBC:

The question is: where do they think JFS exists? We are not on another planet. They are part of the Syrian society….

JFS is deeply embedded within Syrian society. It cannot be singled out in any way. They do not govern any area on their own.