PHOTO: Remain supporters face the result of Britain’s European Union referendum early Friday morning

Nine experts from the University of Birmingham — most of whom made eve-of-referendum videos assessing the issues — follow up with an assessment of the Brexit verdict and what comes next.

Originally published by the Birmingham Perspective:

See EA’s full Britain and Europe coverage

Jenny Phillimore: Anti-Immigration Sentiment v. Immigration Realities

A devastating result and a dark day for Britain. It seems that a small majority of the British (or should I say English and Welsh) electorate were convinced by the hateful and, frankly, dishonest Leave campaign. The economic, political, social, and cultural consequences will be with us for decades impacting on our children and grandchildren.

Anti-immigration sentiment appears to have driven this result. Yet even the Leave campaign refused to promise that Brexit will deliver in terms of reducing net immigration, and one of the few points they conceded was that Britain’s economy depends on migrants.

With a minimum of two years until we formally break with Europe, the inevitable turbulence in our economy may well be coupled with a spike in immigration as those contemplating coming to Britain take their last chance to do so. Meanwhile the three million EU citizens who reside amongst us — many doing the dirty, dangerous and difficult jobs that we do not want, others contributing their skills and knowledge — will feel increasingly disenfranchised with this result perceived as a rejection of them and all they have offered us.

Tim Haughton: The Effective Myth of “Take Back Control”

The reason why the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union can be expressed in three words: “Take Back Control”. The Leave side used the alluring slogan repeatedly and relentlessly, whereas the Remain side never coined a simple and effective slogan.

Leave’s slogan was vague and often masked an inaccurate description of decision-making in the EU. But in political campaigns what matters is not what is accurate, but what works.

“Take back control” combined a sense of a positive future ,albeit never defined or elaborated, with a sense of rightful ownership. Moreover, it helped to mobilize the anti-establishment support of voters who felt let down by their politicians.

The Brexit referendum, as referenda are so often, was only driven in part by the question on the ballot paper. Frustrated by the sense that the political class had failed them, many ordinary citizens took the opportunity to vent their fury.

Fiona de Londras: The Challenge of Forthcoming Negotiations

Once triggered, Article 50 will usher in up to two years of negotiation resulting in Brexit and a treaty on the UK’s future relationship with the European Union

These negotiations are complex. The UK will have to determine what it wants; this will require domestic political leadership and clarity that is not currently in evidence. Furthermore, every member state will have to determine its priorities and bring these together in a common EU vision. In this, weighted votes will be used so that more powerful states have a louder voice than smaller states, although in practice consensus is preferred.

If the Treaty goes beyond matters of trade (which it likely will), it will have to be ratified by every other member state before finalisation. The European Parliament also has a veto option. That’s 28 potential vetoes on this new, post-Brexit arrangement, and all held by parties with less at stake than the UK, with the possible exception of Ireland.

Thus, while the Leave campaign made much of its desire to “take back control”, the UK may well find itself with remarkably little “control” over the final agreement and its future relationship with the EU.

Huw Macartney: Shock and Decline

This will certainly be a Black Friday for sterling and global financial markets. The real issue is the longer-term decline that will follow the immediate shock.

Even the Brexit campaigners admitted that Exit would inevitably be painful in the “short term”. Aside from the blame tactics, against Europe and immigrants, used by the Brexiteers though, there was also a promise of hope.

Yet we have already seen the effect that the Referendum uncertainty had on investment and the economic recovery in the first half of 2016. And so as that uncertainty continues, almost certainly for more than the two year renegotiation period, recession will lead to further job losses and welfare cuts and that hope will quickly evaporate.

Experts predicted this, but we were told that we didn’t need experts. But the reality is that the Leave voters weren’t told how bad things are going to get (for them).

And as that reality starts to bite, the politics of hate, targeting immigrants and the politics of austerity, targeting the poor, will only increase. If we think Britain looks divided now, I fear that our condition is only going to deteriorate.

Scott Lucas: “God Help Our Country”

The former leader of the Liberal Democrats, Paddy Ashdown, captured the moment in four words after the BBC declared victory for the Leave campaign in Britain’s EU referendum:

God help our country.

I could try to soften Ashdown’s reaction or cloak it in academic analysis. I won’t.

See full response in Britain Analysis: “God Help Our Country” — UK Out of European Union

Catherine Needham: The National Health Service

What are the implications of the referendum result for the NHS? There are lots of things we don’t know yet. Here are some that we do:

What will not happen is £350 million a week more for the NHS. Even the UK Independence party leader Nigel Farage said, soon after the result was announced, that it was “a mistake” to make that claim. The NHS faces intense financial pressures and the best way to address those pressures is through a growing economy and increased tax revenues. The financial uncertainties introduced by the Leave vote look very unlikely to generate that growth, in the short-term at least.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership — a trade deal between the US and the EU that had been feared by some as exposing the NHS to marketization — is likely to recede from view as Britain “takes back” its “sovereignty”. However, people opposed to NHS marketization would be naïve to see this as an EU-led agenda, when so much of the opening up of the NHS to market competition has come from the policies of recent Westminster governments.

Health services research will suffer as universities find sources of European funding closed off, as well as reduced freedom of movement for academics and students sharing knowledge across the continent.

Anthony Arnull: The Burden of Black Friday

A question near the top of the Government’s agenda, following the vote to leave the EU, will be when to inform the Union that the UK intends to withdraw. Once that is done, there would then be a period of up to two years to reach an agreement. That period could be extended, but only if everyone agrees.

The agreement would deal with disentangling the UK from the rest of the EU. What should be done about EU nationals resident here and UK nationals resident in the EU, UK staff working for the EU, and EU bodies based in the UK? Once out, the UK would need to strike new trade deals with the EU and other countries. This could take many years.

At the same time, all national rules based on EU obligations will need to be catalogued. Should they be kept or replaced? If the UK wants continued access to the Single Market, it may decide to leave some of them in place. If it decides to replace any, what should the new rules say?

All this will place an enormous burden on the Government and Civil Service and provide much work for lawyers.

Sotirios Zartaloudis: Far-Right Populism

This result confirms what we have been witnessing in England over the last ten years, a steady rise of far-right extremism and populism. Using a “scapegoat” agenda and promoting the Euro-racism of “the decent people” — Nigel Farage’s phrase — against “Europeans” in Brussels and in the UK, Britain becomes the first country to decide to leave the EU.

Parts of Britain have been out of Europe mentally for some years now. But the worst is yet to come. Brexiteers have a clear agenda of dismantling key aspects of employment law legislation, environmental protection, and other market-correcting regulations.

Today most British voters feel closer to the angry supporters of Donald Trump, where far-right populism is used strategically by rich elites who accuse foreigners and “experts” of being the key culprits responsible for increasing economic precariousness. One wonders if they will ever realize that this is a convenient excuse used by Westminster to shift the blame elsewhere.

This is an own-goal of historic proportions that gives pleasure to far-right populists around the world, such as Vladimir Putin and Marine LePen). It may signify the dismantling of the UK, given the strong pro-EU voting in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London.

David Dunn: The Place of England-Wales in the World

Although foreign and security issues were not central to the referendum debate, the impact of Brexit may be momentous. Brexit has the potential to re-energize the Irish question and Scottish support for Europe presages a second independence referendum — one which has implications for the UK’s nuclear status given that these forces are all based on the Clyde.

“Taking back control” of trade policy will also affect England’s foreign policy. In seeking deals with China, the Middle East, and beyond, the Foreign Office will be less inclined to side with its major allies in criticizing these states when its bilateral trade access depends upon accommodation. This may create distance from Washington, Berlin, and Paris as London kowtows to Bejing and others for market access.

The biggest impact, however, will be on Europe itself. President Obama’s support for Remain was premised on the idea that an outward looking, Atlanticist Europe was better for the world and more likely with the UK in it. Following Brexit, the forces of disintegration and xenophobia have been strengthened in Europe and the progress made over the last 70 years towards a tolerant, integrated, and liberal political community has been put at risk.

The consequences for the very nature of Europe have been raised by Brexit and go way beyond the uncertainty over what relations England-Wales will have with the continent and the rest of the world.