PHOTO: The Brexit battle bus “A rejection of traditional politics”


David Dunn of the University of Birmingham writes for the Birmingham Perspective:


In two weeks, the United Kingdom will decide by referendum whether or not to leave the European Union.

Britain has long been a reluctant and sceptical European. As an island, it was semi-detached. Even its experience of World War II was different from that of continental countries, so the imperative of economic and political unity was felt differently. By the time the UK joined the European Economic Community in 1973, it came to a club whose rules were already formed and whose institutions and practices, such as the Common Agricultural Policy, were not optimal for UK citizens.

What has triggered the referendum now, however, is the explosive issue of immigration. Because the UK has a more dynamic economy than most of the Eurozone and due to the widespread use of spoken English, many Southern and Eastern Europeans have moved to Britain for work. The resultant pressures on schools and hospitals and the ability of foreign workers can claim welfare payments for dependent children back in Poland or Spain has fueled the calls for reform or exit.

The outcome is a nation split by those who think that, as the world’s fifth largest economy, Britain would be better off alone to control its fishing, farming, and decision making and those who see greater prosperity and security from membership of a larger European project and as part of a market of 300 million people.

There are clear divisions between the generations. Older voters who remember life before the UK joined the EEC in 1973 are much more likely to vote Leave, while younger voters who have grown up accustomed to easy travel within Europe and to seeing themselves as culturally and politically European are much more supportive of Remain.

But the divisions are not only generational. There is also a major split between elite and popular opinion. The political establishment in all its forms — from the Bank of England to the major economic bodies to Universities, with former heads of the armed forces and intelligence agencies, and former and current political leaders of all parties — have argued strongly for Remain. Support for leave is located squarely with those sections of the electorate who feel disadvantaged by membership and who are nostalgic or wistful for a world where Britain can “Take Back Control” of its borders, businesses, and benefits.

What is also surprising is how incoherent the Leave agenda is. There is no manifesto for what Brexit would involve, no agreement on key issues such as weather Britain should remain within the Single Market, and no obvious answer as
to how the exit would be pursued and implemented if Leave triumphs on 23 June.

Much of the desire to leave is motivated by a feeling that Britain has been mistreated by EU membership and the belief that a better future is possible outside. That so many voters are prepared to vote for that path without any demonstration of what it is, how it would be pursued, who would lead it, and to where it would go is a striking rejection of traditional politics. It is a movement akin to the populism that supports Donald Trump in America and right-wing parties in parts of Europe. It is also a phenomenon that is unlikely to be put to rest whichever way the vote goes in Britain on 23 June.