With today’s formal deadline for a nuclear deal between Iran and the 5+1 Powers, I joined Monocle 24’s The Globalist this morning to discuss the talks in Vienna and whether they will end in an agreement after an extension of a “few days”.

While trying to summarize the content of the issues, I found the discussion as interesting for the “spin”, particularly from the other commentator, Burzine Wagmahr of the University of London. His hardline criticism of Iran, thus raising doubts about the deal, was an effective — if unwitting — mirror image of the claimed hardline position of the Supreme Leader which we were debating.

In the end, I was too cautious in my “50-50” assessment of the chances of a deal. With the diligent pursuit of the agreement in private — in contrast to the often unsettling public rhetoric from observers from Washington to Tehran — my projection is an 80% chance of a resolution in Vienna.

The conversation begins from 13:47: