Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Finnish counterpart Alexander Stubb at the University of Helsinki, March 19, 2025 (Pekka Lähteenmäki)

Saturday’s Coverage: Kyiv Strikes 2 Oil Refineries Inside Russia

UPDATE 1015 GMT:

At least one civilian has been murdered and eight injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

Air defenses downed 33 of 54 drones. The other 21 struck eight locations.

The fatality was in the Donetsk region in the east.

In the Chernihiv region in the north, the Russians injured a 21-year-old man and struck first responders as they fought a fire at a critical infrastructure facility, wounding two of them.

Casualties were also reported in the Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, and Sumy regions.

UPDATE 1006 GMT:

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur has added to statements from other European leaders about responding to Russian aggression with force if needed.

Pevkur said of NATO’s response to three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, “We saw on Friday that NATO is functioning very efficiently…even to the point that if we were truly forced to use the last resort, which is the use of force, then there was a readiness for that as well.”

Estonia has requested consultations under NATO’s Article 4. Pevkur said:

This is exactly what Russia wants — to divert our attention away from helping Ukraine, and to focus on our own backyard. That is a key goal behind these kinds of provocations.

UPDATE 0652 GMT:

Ukraine’s Presidential Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak reports on his discussion with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, ahead of the expected meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly this week.

We discussed preparations for security guarantees for Ukraine, as well as expanding cooperation in military, defense, and economic areas.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Two European leaders said on Saturday that Ukraine’s allies must be prepared to fight Russia as Moscow expands its 43-month full-scale invasion and threatens NATO members.

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said security guarantees for Ukraine required a readiness to confront Moscow if the Kremlin relaunches its invasion in the future.

Czech President Petr Pavel said NATO must respond to Russian airspace violations, including by shooting down Moscow’s jets if necessary.

Stubb explained before travelling to New York for the UN General Assembly:

Security guarantees in essence are a deterrent. That deterrent has to be plausible and in order for it to be plausible it has to be strong. And that means also strategic communication, so we’re not making security guarantees into the air, but we’re making real security guarantees and Russia knows that.

He emphasized, “Russia has absolutely no say in the sovereign decisions of an independent nation state….So for me it’s not an issue will Russia agree or not. Of course they won’t, but that’s not the point.”

Asked if progress is being made, he replied, “It’s not a big bazooka, it’s step-by-step.” Europe and Finland have little option but to try as hard as possible to be friendly with the Trump Administration.

I think it’s the job of the President of Finland to get along with the President of the United States, whoever he is.

Foreign policy is always based on three pillars. It’s values, interests and power. Small states only have values and interests … but we can have influence instead of power. Engagement is better than disengagement, come hell or high water.

“Giving Into Evil Is Simply Impossible”

Czechia’s Pavel spoke to State TV about Russia’s violations of airspace in the past two weeks: 19 drones into Poland, another UAV over Romania, and three MiG-31 fighter jets in Estonia’s airspace.

“What happened in recent days in Poland and Estonia, and what has been happening in Ukraine for four years, concerns us all, because if we don’t remain united, sooner or later it will happen to us too,” he noted.

In these times, we must act firmly, and if violations occur, we must respond accordingly, including militarily. Russia will very quickly realize it has made a mistake and overstepped its bounds. Unfortunately, this is balancing on the brink of conflict, but giving into evil is simply impossible.

The President summarized, “This is completely irresponsible behavior [by Russia], since violating airspace is a pretext for activating defense mechanisms, namely, shooting down such an aircraft. And, of course, no one on our side or the Russian side would want that.”