EA on India’s NDTV: Putin’s Next Gamble in Ukraine

Friday’s Coverage: Russia Murders 31, Including 5 Children, in Kyiv as Zelensky Calls for “Regime Change”

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1710 GMT:

Just over a week after signing legislation limited the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, and 48 hours after reversing and restoring that independence, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced the agencies’ charges against an MP and high-level officials.

Zelensky posted about the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO):

NABU Director Semen Kryvonos and Head of the SAPO Oleksandr Klymenko delivered a report.

A Ukrainian MP, along with heads of district and city administrations and several National Guard servicemembers, were exposed for bribery. I am grateful to the anti-corruption agencies for their work.

There can only be zero tolerance for corruption, clear teamwork in uncovering it, and ultimately, a fair sentence. It is important that anti-corruption institutions operate independently, and the law passed on Thursday guarantees them all the tools necessary for a real fight against corruption.

UPDATE 1221 GMT:

Writing amid mass rallies that helped restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, Kyiv’s envoy to NATO, Alyona Getmanchuk, assesses:

Ukraine may not yet be an ideal democracy, but Ukrainians have clearly identified the democratic direction they want their country to move in. This is not because the EU demands it, but because it is the future the Ukrainian people wish for themselves and for their children.

Ukrainians understand that only a democratic Ukraine, fully integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures, can be truly safe from further Russian imperial aggression. By embracing democratic values, Ukraine moves decisively away from the Kremlin’s authoritarian alternative and can no longer be treated as a “mini-Russia”.

UPDATE 1154 GMT:

Vladimir Putin has considered eastern Ukraine and Crimea to be part of “Greater Russia” for more than 30 years, according to a document declassified by the German Foreign Ministry.

Then Deputy Mayor of St. Petersburgh, Putin told the German Consul General in January 1994: “Crimea, eastern Ukraine and northern Kazakhstan – at least these territories – have never been foreign to Russia, they have always been part of the Russian state. It is impossible to explain to any Russian that this is now foreign.”

The Consul General emphasized that this was not the first time that Putin had made such a statement.

The future Russian leader said if the economic and social situation of Russians in Ukraine and Kazakhstan was satisfactory, then “there are no problems”. But he said that this was not the case, and the West should not call “Russian imperialism” what was in fact “the justified defense of Russian interests”.

UPDATE 1105 GMT:

Overnight Ukrainian drone strikes set fires at an oil refinery and other facilities supporting Russia’s invasion.

Video showed a large fire at the Novokuybyshevsk Oil Refinery in the Samara region, almost 1,100 km (684 miles) east of Moscow. Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev also announced temporary restrictions on mobile internet and suspended operations at Samara airport.

Defense-related facilities in the Penza region, about 750 km (466 miles) southeast of Moscow, were attacked. They included a company specializing in control elements for Russian missile systems and Russia’s sole defense facility producing air defense command centers.

Witnesses reported loud explosions near the Dyagilevo airbase in the Ryazan region. An oil refinery in Ryazan city was reportedly struck.

UPDATE 1041 GMT:

At least six civilians have been killed and at least 37 have been injured by Russian attacks across Ukraine over the past day.

Air defenses downed 45 of 53 drones fired by Russia overnight.

In the Kherson region in the south, three civilians were murdered and 11 wounded in attacks on Kherson city and 33 other settlements.

In the Kharkiv region in the northeast, a 75-year-old woman was killed and eleven people injured, including a 5-month-old baby and 9-year-old and 10-year-old boys.

In the frontline town of Pokrovsk in the neighboring Donetsk region, two people were slain. Ten were wounded in other areas.

Casualties were also reported from the Chernihiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

UPDATE 0702 GMT:

At least 11 civilians were injured by Russian drone attacks on Kharkiv city in northeast Ukraine on Friday night.

The victims include a 5-month-old baby and 9-year-old and 10-year-old boys. Five of the wounded have been hospitalized.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: NATO is developing the mechanism to implement Donald Trump’s proposal for bloc members to purchase US weapons and supply them to Ukraine.

Frustrated with Vladimir Putin’s refusal of a ceasefire and Russia’s mass killing of Ukrainian civilians, Donald Trump proposed the arrangement last month.

“Several sources familiar with the matter” said arms will be delivered in tranches of around $500 million. Members will negotiate among themselves over payment for the weapons.

A European official told said the aim is to provide $10 billion in support for Ukraine. Kyiv will prioritize needs under its Priority Ukraine Requirements List.

“That is the starting point, and it’s an ambitious target that we’re working towards. We’re currently on that trajectory. We support the ambition. We need that sort of volume,” the European official said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced on Friday that two US-made Patriot air defense systems are being transferred to Ukraine. Launchers will arrive “in the coming days”, with other components delivered “within the next two to three months”.

Zelensky Call for Meeting with Putin

In his nightly video address to the nation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky summarized the toll from Russia’s missile and drone strikes early Thursday on Kyiv.

Rescue and recovery efforts finally ended on Friday afternoon after the confirmation that 31 civilians, including five children, were murdered. The attack was the deadliest on the capital since December 2023.

Zelensky pressed Putin to meet face-to-face to discuss an end to Russia’s invasion and mass killing.

We understand who calls the shots in Russia, and thus Ukraine is once again offering to move beyond technical talks—not to exchange statements, but to actually meet at the level of leaders.