Scott Lucas and Daniel Tkiie in conversation at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, July 28, 2026

UPDATE, AUG 7:

In the third part of our discussion at the Clinton Institute, Ukraine journalist Daniel Tkiie and I discuss attempts to push back the Russian invasion and issues within the Zelensky Government.

We begin by considering the possibility of the US Congress passing a bill for 100% tariffs on the top 5 countries purchasing Russian oil.

We then turn to domestic politics inside Ukraine with Volodymyr Zelensky’s firing of the widely-popular Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. How much does this hinder the Ukrainian resistance and counter-attacks?

We conclude with an analysis of Ukraine’s exposure of Russia-Iran military links, through an attack on an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea.

UPDATE, AUG 6:

In the second part of our sitdown at the Clinton Institute, I chat with Ukraine journalist Daniel Tkiie about signs of external pressure on Vladimir Putin over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

I describe last month’s pointed remarks by the Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, alongside Putin at a press conference in Omsk, questioning the invasion. I ponder if Tokayev might have been sending a message from China.

Despite the growing problems for Putin, I caution that he faces “Go Big or Go Home”, pushing him into a last, all-out effort for Ukraine’s surrender.

I take apart the Kremlin’s propaganda as it strives for the takeover of all of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine: are its threats a case of “Big Hat, No Cattle”?

ORIGINAL ENTRY, AUG 1: In a special VideoCast, I hosted Ukraine journalist Daniel Tkiie last Tuesday at the Clinton Institute for a chat about the state of Russia’s 53-month invasion of Ukraine.

We begin with the possibility of ending the assault or at least establishing a ceasefire. Can Kyiv’s counter-attacks, with their pressure on the Russian economy, finally force Vladimir Putin to give up his “legacy” quest for Ukraine as part of “Greater Russia”?

We also discuss relations between Kyiv and the Trump Administration: can a “winning” Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelensky’s face-to-face meetings with Donald Trump finally establish some support from Washington?