Donald Trump speaks at reporters in the Oval Office in the White House, Washington D.C., August 3, 2026 (CNN)
I spoke with Ireland’s RTE Prime Time on Thursday night, alongside Georgetown University’s Paul Musgrave in Qatar, to explain the possible Iran-Oman agreement on management of the Strait of Hormuz. I also analyze how the Trump Administration is being forced back to negotiations because of a shortage of both defensive and offensive munitions. I joined India’s WION on Friday to evaluate the Trump Administration’s impotence as Iran and Oman discuss a possible arrangement to manage the Strait of Hormuz. I explain how the Trump camp’s “military option is gone” after it retreated from wider strikes on Iran because of military, economic, and domestic consequences. That leaves it with no choice except to come back to negotiations at some point — and possibly to accept the fait accompli of Iranian involvement in supervision of the Strait. Watch from 2:47: I joined Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya English on Wednesday to discuss a possible breakthrough to end the US War on Iran.
I summarize and evaluate talks between Iran and Oman to establish management of the Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Tehran a few days after the launch of the war. I note signs that the Trump Administration, having backed away from wider attacks inside Iran, may be moving towards acceptance of that management. But will the Trump camp return to June’s Memorandum of Understanding, signed by Donald Trump and largely on Iranian terms? I take apart Trump’s lies to highlight US shortages of both defensive and offensive missiles and how this contributed to the pullback from wider attacks on Iran. And I explain Iran’s support for Hamas amid an expanding Israeli occupation and attacks inside Gaza. Watch from 1:38:
UPDATE, AUG 7:
UPDATE, AUG 6:
ORIGINAL ENTRY, AUG 4: I joined international media on Monday to analyze Donald Trump’s “TACO” — Trump Always Chickens Out — pulling back from wider US strikes inside Iran.
I cut through Trump’s bluster to set out the political and military realities.
If the US expands attacks, it faces a shortage of air defense interceptors in the region when Iran retaliates.
Central Command, having tried to level Iranian site for more than five months, is facing diminishing returns from further strikes — unless the US commits the war crimes of widespread assaults on civilian infrastructure.
Around 70% of Americans oppose the war.
Expanding airstrikes would spike oil and gas prices, feeding inflation in the US and thus discontent in the run-up to November’s Congressional elections.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman make clear to Trump that the Kingdom will not support the strikes.
Meanwhile, the Trump camp still cannot break Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz.
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So when will the Trumpists, having tried to escape June’s Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, return to negotiations?
Watch Pakistan’s Express 24-7
I spoke on Monday afternoon with Zunaira Azhar about Trump’s latest rants and then — more productively — about the Iran regime’s calculations to turn survival into leverage.
Watch from 3:17:
Watch Pakistan TV’s Beyond Borders
Alongside German political analyst Antje Herrberg, I spell out the current situation, highlighting the dead end for the Trump Administration.
I note that the Iranian tactic is to establish a bilateral agreement with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz and then present that to the Trump camp in any talks.
Watch from 2:00:
Watch Poland’s TVP World
I explain to host Ashim Kumar, “Trump has found himself boxed in”:
If gasoline prices remain high ahead of the November elections, the Trump Administration will have little choice but to return to the negotiating table.
