Photo: AP

US-Israel War, Day 26: Iran Rejects Trump’s 15-Point “Plan”

UPDATE, APRIL 1:

I joined Poland’s TVP World on Tuesday to review the latest scrambling and lack of clarity from the Trump Administration over the US-Israel War on Iran.

I begin with analysis a US request to Poland for Patriot air defense missiles. I tell host Sascha Fahrbach that it shows the Americans “are in a pretty tough bind” over protection of their positions and Gulf States as Iran’s missile and drone retaliation continues.

I note the Iranian regime’s defiance, rejecting the Trump camp’s 15-point ultimatum, putting the US “in a muddle” between Donald Trump’s lies about talks with Iran and his threats of “obliteration”, including of electricity, oil, and desalination.

We consider the Israeli dimension, with the Netanyahu Government — even if it is forced to give up its objective of “regime change” in Iran — expanding its occupation of southern Lebanon.

And I explain the significance if Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi faction enters the war.

UPDATE, MARCH 31:

I joined Pakistan TV’s Sana Maqbool on Monday to evaluate attempts to “de-escalate” the US-Israel War on Iran.

I consider Pakistan’s hosting of Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia in Islamabad, seeking a path to mediation.

But I note that there is no apparent space for negotiation between the Trump Administration’s 15-point ultimatum for “regime surrender” and Iran’s defiant 5-point response.

Along the way, I take apart Donald Trump’s lies and contradictions by setting out the actual political and military position.

UPDATE, MARCH 28:

I joined India’s WION on Saturday to analyze Donald Trump’s frustration that Iran’s regime, far from surrendering, controls the Strait of Hormuz.

I take apart Trump lashing out at NATO members over his failure, setting the record straight on the bloc’s relationship with the US.

I explain why not only NATO members but every other country in the world, with the possible exception of the UAE, is concerned about joining a mission in the Strait during a war — but also why those countries are ready to carry out the mission if there is a ceasefire.

Watch from 4:20:

UPDATE 0939 GMT:

I joined India’s FirstPost on Thursday to evaluate both the conflicting rhetoric and positions of the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime.

The interview was conducted before Donald Trump’s retreat from immediate attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, with a 10-day extension of his “deadline” for regime capitulation.

The Trump folks are in a cul-de-sac. Unless you step this up with ground operations, where do you go next?

I also consider how Israel is working with a “different plan”.

Watch from 4:32:

UPDATE, MARCH 27:

In a 9-minute analysis on Tuesday, I chat with Flux News about Donald Trump’s declarations of US-Iran “talks” and Tehran’s pushback.

I explain the motivation for Trump’s statements — soaring oil prices and falling stock markets — and set out the reality of the US-Iran contacts, including the White House attempt to promote Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as Iran’s leader.

Is the spike in our energy prices going to settle at 5%, 10%, 20%, 25%, more?

We’re in a zone of uncertainty because until there is a ceasefire, there is no way of telling where this goes next.

UPDATE, MARCH 26:

I joined Pakistan TV for a 27-minute discussion on Tuesday dissecting the tactics of the Trump camp, including the claims of “talks” with Iran.

I set out the White House’s approach, with the “Venezuela model”, trying to promote Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer-Qalibaf as the leader of Iran’s regime and getting him to accept US demands.

I also explain why that is unlikely to work, raising the prospect of renewed American attacks — including the possible use of ground forces — from the end of this week.

The host is Omar Khalid Butt and the other guest is foreign affairs analyst Faiz Rehman.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, MARCH 25: I joined France 24 English on Tuesday to highlight Donald Trump’s deceptive rhetoric, amid the US-Israel War, about “productive conversations” with Iran.

I cut through Trump’s falsehoods over American contacts with Tehran; Iran’s nuclear program; and Tehran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz.

And I put the key question: if Trump declares by the end of the week that the “talks” have been fruitless, will the US send troops into Iran or Kharg Island, the vital oil hub in the northern Persian Gulf?