Vladimir Putin’s senior economic advisor Kirill Dmitriev with Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, St. Petersburg, Russia, April 11, 2025

EA-War and Politics 24 VideoCast: The Kremlin’s Window to “Break” Ukraine

Tuesday’s Coverage: On Eve of Talks, Russia Renews Massive Strikes on Kyiv

UPDATE 1841 GMT:

European ambassadors have agreed the details of a €90 billion ($107 billion) loan for Ukraine.

European Union leaders approved the Ukraine Support Loan in December, seeking to fund Kyiv’s needs into 2027. It earmarks €30 billion in support for Ukraine’s budget, and €60 billion for defense spending.

The proposal will now be put to the European Parliament. If approved, the cash could arrive by spring. The support loan earmarks 30 billion euros in support for Ukraine’s budget, and 60 billion euros for defense spending.

While the loan program prioritizes defense products made in Europe, certain third countries could be considered to meet Ukraine’s urgent defense needs if they have agreements with the EU or receive approval.

But Ukraine will need at least $27 billion in military equipment from outside the EU in 2026, underscoring the bloc’s reliance on U.S. technology to support Kyiv, according to country position papers seen by the Kyiv Independent.

“Today’s agreement shows that the EU continues to act decisively in support of Ukraine and its people,” Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement.

UPDATE 1521 GMT:

Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by 50% in January compared to the same month in 2025, sinking to their lowest level since July 2020.

Revenues totaled 393.3 billion rubles (around $5.10 billion) in January, down from 447.8 billion rubles in December.

Oil and gas revenues are nearly a quarter of total income in Russia’s government budget. At the end of 2025, the budget deficit was 5.6 trillion rubles (around $71.8 billion), 2.6% of GDP.

Russian authorities are hoping to collect 8.92 trillion rubles (around $114.4 billion) from oil and gas sales. However, in 2025 oil and gas revenues fell by 24% to 8.48 trillion rubles (around $108.7 billion), also the lowest level since 2020.

Russia’s public deficit could balloon to almost triple the official target by the end of 2026, said “a source close to the government”.

An 18% fall in energy revenues, compared to the government’s assumptions, would push the deficit to between 3.5% and 4.4% of GDP rather than the planned 1.6%.

UPDATE 1509 GMT:

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko says Russian forces have attacked Ukraine’s energy sector 217 times in 2026.

She said energy workers will receive additional payments of 20,000 hryvnias (about $63) per month for emergency service.

UPDATE 1502 GMT:

As Ukraine-Russia-US talks began in Abu Dhabi this morning, Russian forces murdered at least seven civilians and injured eight in the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region in the east of the country.

The Russians fired cluster munitions on a market in Druzhkivka.

UPDATE 1500 GMT:

The Ukraine-Russia-US talks in Abu Dhabi have ended for the day. No readout has been provided.

Discussions are expected to continue Thursday.

UPDATE 1233 GMT:

Tension in the Russian press this morning — while proclaiming that the Kremlin will pursue Ukraine’s capitulation, the newspapers fret about the economic situation.

UPDATE 1205 GMT:

“Informed European officials” say the Trump Administration has prepared new sanctions against Russia but is in no rush to impose them.

The officials said skepticism about prospects for the Ukraine-Russia-US talks is growing in Europe, given Moscow’s escalation of airstrikes on energy infrastructure and other civilian sites.

UPDATE 1027 GMT:

The latest Russian strikes have cut electricity to consumers in six Ukrainian regions.

National power grid operator Ukrenergo posted:

At night, the enemy attacked energy infrastructure in several regions. As a result, as of the morning there are de-energized consumers in Sumy, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Emergency restoration work is already underway wherever security conditions allow.

Russian forces also targeted the Odesa region in southern Ukraine.

Governor Oleh Kiper posted about “a massive attack with strike drones” on civilian, residential, and industrial infrastructure.

In Odesa city of Odesa, about 20 residential buildings and cars were damaged. One person was injured as four were rescued from rubble.

On Tuesday, Donald Trump falsely said Vladimir Putin “had kept his word” for a week-long halt to attacks as he praised the Russian leader (see Original Entry).

UPDATE 1120 GMT:

Two 18-year-olds were murdered and at least 20 other people injured, including four children, by a Russian drone strike on Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine on Tuesday evening.

The attack damaged a multi-story residential building, shops, and cars around 6 p.m.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The second round of Ukraine-Russia-US talks begins on Wednesday in Abu Dhabi.

The delegations are expected to discuss proposals to end Russia’s 47 1/2-month full scale invasion. However, the Kremlin is continuing to refuse a ceasefire without its seizure of more Ukranian territory and the rest of the country kept permanently weak wth no significant security guarantees.

Ukraine and Europe have pushed back against a Russian ultimatum, crafted in late October with Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for Kyiv to give up the rest of the strategic Donetsk region in the east of the country.

Ukraine-Europe counterproposals, accepted by Washington, include significant security guarantees with US involvement in the event of a future Russian invasion. Ukraine and Europe propose that the free part of Donetsk be maintained as a demilitarized economic zone.

However, there is concern that real estate developer Witkoff, manipulated by the Russians since last spring, will again take the side of the Kremlin. Multiple officials have said the Trump Administration is demanding the handover of Donetsk to Russia in return for any security guarantees to Kyiv.

Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner conferred with Vladimir Putin’s top advisor Kirill Dmitriev, with whom they crafted last October’s ultimatum, in Miami on Saturday.

Russia’s Latest Strikes

On Tuesday, Russia launched 71 missiles and more than 450 drones on Kyiv and six other Ukrainian regions.

At Donald Trump’s request, the Kremlin had ceased fire on energy infrastrcuture for three days, instead concentrating their attacks on logistics such as railways. But yesterday they damaged thermal power plants.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky posted:

This speaks volumes about Russia’s promises. If their word doesn’t hold even now, what can be expected next. They’re incorrigible in Moscow — trying to take advantage of the cold, because they cannot subdue Ukraine through assaults. Russia’s bet on war must receive a response.

He called for progress on US legislation toughening sanctions on Russia, as well as European measures against Moscow’s “shadow fleet” trying to evade restrictions on oil shipments.

Trump responded by accepting the assault, falsely declaring Moscow had observed a week-long ceasefire, and praising Putin:

[The pause] was for Sunday to Sunday. It opened up and [Putin[ hit them hard….He kept his word on that. One week is a lot — we will take anything.