Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, Russia’s Deputy Director of Military Intelligence

Thursday’s Coverage: Kyiv and Moscow Near POW Swap as Trilateral Talks Enter 2nd Day

UPDATE 1220 GMT:

“A well-informed source on the Russian side” has declared that the ending of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine will require at least six weeks, even if negotiations proceed favorably.

The work is being carried out in a multifaceted and phased manner. It’s unlikely to be completed in a month.

And only if all parties are in a positive mood, ready to immediately resolve fundamental differences, will it take at least a month and a half. Otherwise, it will certainly take longer.

The source said Ukraine wants security guarantees for Odesa in the south of the country: “For Kyiv, this is a critically important aspect.”

UPDATE 1154 GMT:

Russian assaults have reportedly dropped by 1/3 to 1/2 after Ukraine, working with Elon Musk, blocked Moscow’s access to Starlink terminals on all fronts.

Claims are circulating of Russian military bloggers launching crowdfunding appeals for radio equipment for frontline troops. One Telegram channel announced a fundraiser for 8.5 million rubles (around $110,000).

The milbloggers posted videos of Russian soldiers on the front complaining about the shutdown: “We are left without communications!”.

Milblogger Aleksandr Kots quoted a commander, “This is our Achilles’ heel.”

Ukraine Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced the blocking of unverified Starlink satellite terminals on Thursday, thanking Musk for his cooperation. Musk urged Ukrainians to register their terminals and reposted step-by-step instructions on how to do so.

UPDATE 1147 GMT:

In his nightly address to the nation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky summarized the second round of Ukraine-Russia-US talks in Abu Dhabi.

Zelensky gave no details, as he awaits the return of the Ukrainian delegation for “a full in-person report, as many aspects cannot be properly discussed over the phone”.

What can already be said is that further meetings are planned in the near future, likely in the United States. We are ready for all workable formats that can genuinely bring peace closer and make it reliable, lasting, and such that deprives Russia of any appetite to continue the war.

It is crucial that this war ends in a way that leaves Russia with no reward for its aggression. This is one of the key principles that restore and guarantee real security.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russia’s deputy director of military intelligence was shot and critically wounded in Moscow on Friday.

Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev was struck several times by an unknown gunman, in the elevator lobby of his apartment block around 7 a.m.

The Russian business daily Kommersant said the attacker, posing as a delivery person, wounded Alekseyev in the foot and the arm. The general tried to wrest away the gun and was shot again in the chest before the attacker fled.

The deputy head of the GRU since 2011, Alekseyev has been central in the provision of intelligence for Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine from February 2022.

Alekseyev also has overseen private military companies. He was among senior officials who negotiate with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, during their rebellion that threatened Moscow in summer 2023.

The general was sanctioned by the UK over the Kremlin’s attack, on a former Russian spy and his daughter, with novichok nerve agent in Salisbury, England in 2018. He was blacklisted by the US over involvement in efforts to interfere in the 2016 Presidential election, and by Canada in August 2022 for complicity in the invasion of Ukraine.

The shooting came a day after Ukraine-Russia-US talks in Abu Dhabi which included Russian director of military intelligence Igor Kostyukov.

Russian Foreign Sergey Lavrov snapped at a press conference:

This terrorist attack once again confirmed the Zelensky regime’s focus on constant provocations, aimed in turn at disrupting the negotiation process.