Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi (3rd from L) speaks during a meeting with Swiss officials, Geneva, February 16, 2026 (Keystone/AP)

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UPDATE, FEB 24:

I spoke with Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya English on Monday about the Trump camp’s latest threat of airstrikes against Iran, even as the US and Tehran confirm a third set of talks on Thursday over the Iranian nuclear program.

I take apart the complaint of Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff about no “capitulation” by Iran to the US warships, fighter jets, and missiles massed in the Persian Gulf.

I consider if talks can bring an accommodation, particularly over Iran’s enrichment of uranium, and easing of the Trump threat.

We’re in limbo. We have had “talks about talks”. Whether a defined agenda gets to the heart of issues, let’s see if those are on the table.

And I explain why any sustained American strikes would undermine Iranians seeking reforms, rights, and justice.

Given the plummetting currency, given the high rate of inflation, given the collapses of key banks, given the mismanagement of the economy…

…If you have another economic shock that affects many Iranians, that is what will spur protests, even with the threat of repression.

Watch from 2:25:

UPDATE, FEB 21:

I joined Poland’s TVP World on Saturday for a 13-minute assessment of whether the Trump camp will launch airstrikes on Iran.

I assess the juxtaposition of US-Iran talks over Tehran’s nuclear program with the buildup of the American naval force and airpower off the Iranian coast. I add the effect of Trump’s chaotic rhetoric and the hardline bluster of Iran’s Supreme Leader and its military.

I discuss the consequences of US airstrikes, from the spread of regional instability to the undermining of Iranians seeking political, economic, and social reforms.

UPDATE 1820 GMT:

I spoke with Talk TV’s Petrie Hosken on Tuesday night about the state of Iran-US relations and the talks in Geneva.

I set out the tactics of both the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime, and I note how the Trump camp’s recourse to military strikes would further damage Iranians — bloodily repressed last month by the regime, with thousands and maybe tens of thousands killed — seeking rights, reforms, and justice.

If Trump thinks, “I’ll bomb the Iranians and the regime will fall,” the opposite is likely to happen.

What we saw last June is that once Israel attacked, the regime said, “Look, everybody, Israel is against us. The US is against us. So you have to stand behind us.” And that blocked the way forward for protests at that point.

Iranians wanting to change their regime and obtain reforms and justice are not going to be assisted by American bombs.

I also discuss the necessity for the UK to increase its defense and security spending because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats to Europe.

Watch from 36:55:

ORIGINAL ENTRY: I joined Amargi’s Rojîn Mûkrîyan on Monday to consider if indirect Iran-US talks over Tehran’s nuclear program, continuing in Geneva yesterday, can avert strikes by the Trump Administration.

In the 35-minute chat, I set out the issues and the tactics on both sides. I look at the tension between the Trump camp’s tough pose and Donald Trump’s desire for a Nobel Peace Prize, exacerbated by his choice of envoys: real estate developer Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

I explain why strikes are unlikely to break the Iranian regime. Instead, they could fuel regional confrontations and undermine the quest of Iranians — bloodily repressed by the regime last month — for rights, reforms, and justice.