Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump’s envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, with Ukrainian and American delegations, Paris, January 6, 2026

EA on War and Politics 24: Ukraine — Has Putin Overplayed His Hand Again?

Tuesday’s Coverage: Zelensky and European Leaders Meet Trump’s Envoys in Paris

UPDATE 1659 GMT:

Ukrainian negotiators have met with Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for the third time in two days in Paris.

Rustem Umerov, the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the talks centered on the framework to end Russia’s invasion and “further contacts at the leaders’ level involving Ukraine, European partners, and the United States”.

Although Witkoff hailed “significant progress on several critical workstreams”, the Trump envoys reportedly did not sign a joint statement with Ukrainian and European officials pledging robust security guarantees to Kyiv.

UPDATE 1016 GMT:

At least seven civilians have been injured, including two children, amid an attack by at least Russian drones on Dnipro in south-central Ukraine late Tuesday.

Windows were shattered in more than 10 high-rise buildings, and drone debris damaged two kindergartens, a school, and a vocational school that trains mechanics and pastry chefs. A gas pipeline and several cars were set on fire.

Russia also struck other parts of the Dnipropetrovsk region with drones and artillery.

UPDATE 1012 GMT:

A German military document reportedly describes Russia’s covert attacks against infrastructure in preparation for a potential Russia-NATO war.

The document evaluates Russian cyber operations and influence campaigns, expecting the targeting of German energy and defense infrastructure. It forecasts Russia will see Germany as a priority target for long range missile strikes, armed drones, and special forces after an armed attack on NATO’s eastern flank.

The military assesses that Russia will develop these capabilities and “strategic options” by 2029 at the latest.

UPDATE 0740 GMT:

Ukraine’s latest drone attacks have set afire the Stary Oskol oil depot in the Belgorod region in western Russia.

Residents reported the fire late Tuesday. Witnesses posted photos and videos, and Belgorod Governor Vyacheslov Gladkov confirmed a drone attacked the storage facility: “As a result of the detonation, several tanks caught fire on the site.”

Firefighters are extinguishing the blaze, and there appear to be no casualties, Gladkov said.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The US has backed security guarantees to Ukraine, while the UK and France committed troops to the country after a halt of Russia’s 47 1/2-month full-scale invasion.

The developments came at a meeting in Paris on Tuesday where Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders presented their proposals to Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

They were a dramatic turnaround from late October when Witkoff and Kushner colluded with the Kremlin on a 28-point ultimatum to Ukraine, forcing it to give up territory and to keep itself permanently weak.

In contrast, Witkoff and Kushner said Tuesday that Donald Trump “strongly stands” behind the guarantees, which include US participation and a leadership role.

Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a trilateral declaration of intent for the Anglo-French “military hubs across Ukraine”.

Macron said the force will “provide reassurance after the ceasefire” while being stationed “a long way behind the contact line”. The Ukraine-Europe plan includes “ceasefire monitoring commitments under American leadership” and “long-term support to Ukrainian armed forces who are and will remain in the frontline of defense”.

The leaders did not details on the size of the force.

Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said after the talks that they will not put troops inside Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his forces will be based in neighboring countries.

Asked if the US would assist European forces who were attacked in Ukraine, Witkoff said the security guarantees were “as strong as anyone has ever seen” and were meant to “deter any further attacks”.

He declared, “The President does not back down from his commitments. He is strong for the country of Ukraine and for a peace deal. We will be there for the Ukrainians in helping them to get to that final peace.”

Kushner added that Ukrainians “have to know that after a deal they are secure, they have, obviously, a robust deterrence, and there’s real backstops to make sure that this will not happen again”.

A draft statement considered by the meeting said American participation includes “US capabilities such as intelligence and logistics” and “a US commitment to support the force in case of attack” by Russia.

Binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future armed attack by Russia…may include the use of military capabilities, intelligence and logistical support, diplomatic initiatives, adoption of additional sanctions.

Territory Still Unresolved

Zelensky said the status of Ukrainian-controlled territory is still unresolved. “We have a number of ideas that could be helpful,” he said. If there was no agreement, he is ready to discuss proposals directly with Trump.

The Kremlin-Witkoff-Kushner ultimatum from late October included Ukraine handing over to Russia the rest of the strategic Donetsk region in the east of the country. Ukraine and Europe have countered with a proposal for a demilitarized free economic zone, with a pullback of both Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Witkoff said, “We think we’re largely finished with security protocols. But we also think, critically, we are very very close to finishing up as robust a prosperity agreement as any country has ever seen coming out of conflicts like this.”

Starmer indicated that leaders expect Vladimir Putin to reject the final agreed plans.

We are closer to [peace] than ever but of course the hardest yards are still ahead. We can only get to a peace deal if Putin is ready to make compromises. Putin is not showing he is ready for peace.