EA on War and Politics 24: Ukraine — How Putin’s Oreshnik “Demonstration Strike” Failed

UPDATE, JAN 22:

I rejoined Ukraine’s War and Politics 24 on Monday for a 24-minute analysis of how Vladimir Putin has overplayed his hand, preventing his conquest of Ukraine.

As we awaited the convergence of Volodymyr Zelensky’s meeting with Donald Trump and the visit of Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Vladimir Putin on Thursday, I put the current state of Russia’s 4-year full-scale invasion into military, political, and economic contexts.

Can Ukraine and Europe maintain their proposals, agreed with Witkoff and Kushner, for security guarantees for Kyiv which include US participation? Can they hold the line against giveaway of territory to Putin?

If we knew that the Trump Administration — not just Trump, not just Witkoff, not just Kushner — were locked into the security guarantees for Ukraine, into a plan first and foremost for Ukraine’s recovery and not for American profits, into maintaining the frontlines where Russia could not seize more territory, then the pendulum would stop.

But we still don’t know because the guy in the White House is chaotic, unpredictable, and driven by his ego.

ORIGINAL ENTRY, JAN 17: I joined Ukraine’s War and Politics 24 on Thursday for a 40-minute deep dive into the international problems for Vladimir Putin as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine nears its 4-year anniversary.

I outline setbacks for the Kremlin in the past year from Syria to Venezuela. I take apart its rhetoric over an “alternative world order”. And I note that Putin cannot even count on an unpredictable Donald Trump who wants to demonstrate US dominance, even over Moscow.

However, I caution that this does not mean an end to the Russian invasion. While Ukraine and Europe have obtained US involvement in a 20-point plan, including American participation in security guarantees, the details are not final — and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner may soon visit the Kremlin.

In the last part of the interview, we switch to Trump’s threats to seize Greenland, and how they might aid the Russians in the attempt to split the US from Ukraine and Europe.