Vladimir Putin greets Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the Kremlin, January 22, 2026

EA-War and Politics 24 VideoCasts: Ukraine and Russia — Has Putin Overplayed His Hand?

UPDATE, JAN 25:

I joined India’s WION to evaluate the first round of Ukraine-Russia-US talks in Abu Dhabi, and how any progress faces the challenge of the Kremlin’s determination to seize more Ukrainian territory and to keep the country in perpetual weakness.

You have a tug of war here. Russia is facing increasing constraints on its ability to maintain the full assault on the ground and in the air. That in part is why they are, paradoxically, stepping up attacks to try to knock the Ukrainian resistance by blacking it out, by freezing it out.

With this window, they have to play along with diplomacy because they are playing to Donald Trump.

Can they win the tug of war or can Ukraine, backed up by Europe, continue to pull the Americans onto the side of a ceasefire based on current frontlines?

Watch from 2:50:

ORIGINAL ENTRY, JAN 23: Amid a week of political turmoil and maneuvers, I joined the Ukrainian channel War and Politics 24 to assess whether this is Vladimir Putin’s last chance to conquer Ukraine.

The 39-minute interview was recorded just after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky met Donald Trump in Davos, Switzerland and hours before Vladimir Putin hosted Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the Kremlin.

This was followed, to my surprise, by Russian agreement to join trilateral discussions with senior Ukrainian officials and Trump’s envoys in the UAE on Friday.

I work through the political angles but — anticipating that Russia will reject proposals for a ceasefire, security guarantees, and Ukraine not conceding more territory — I consider whether Putin can force Kyiv’s capitulation.

I summarize Russia’s intense missile and drone strikes against energy infrastructure, trying to black out and freeze Ukraine’s civilians.

Between now and the summer, maybe the autumn, this is Russia’s last chance to break Ukraine. They are going to throw everything at this.

If Russia from a position of weakness is going to project strength, Europe has to respond.