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Q&A: Trump Bails Out As Iran’s Protests Face Uncertain Future

EA-Byline Times Podcast: How Far Can Iran’s Protests Go?

EA on International Outlets: From Trump’s Threats to Iran’s Protests

UPDATES: Iran Protests Continue Despite Rising Death Toll

UPDATE, JAN 18:

I spoke with India’s WION on Sunday morning about the Iran regime’s suppression of the protests and why Donald Trump — influenced by a message from the regime via his envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff — did not intervene.

I explain why others in the Trump Administration stepped back from military action, including concern about instability across the region — reinforced by messages from the Gulf States and Israel opposing the operations.

Watch from 3:33:

UPDATE 0618 GMT:

I joined France 24 English on Wednesday to discuss the risk of US military action to Iran’s nationwide protests.

I begin with the regime’s threat to execute protesters, imposing the death penalty after quick show trials.

Then I discuss the range of reactions to Donald Trump’s rhetoric and unpredictable behavior.

While some people in Iran are so desperate that they might welcome military action to punish the regime, I think most Iranians realize that this puts a target on their backs and undermines the protests.

It will justify the regime coming at them even harder, declaring them “puppets” of the US and Israel. Attacks will feed the regime’s narrative.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: I joined international outlets to evaluate the state of Iran’s nationwide protests, now in their third week.

I consider the sharp escalation in deaths, primarily from use of live ammunition by Iranian security forces; the regime’s attempt to minimize the demonstrations by labelling them as US and Israel-directed and by mobilizing its supporters; and the threats of Donald Trump to intervene with US military operations.

I avoid the risk of predictions but make two points: 1) the protests have energy and defiance but may lack the organization to press their political, economic, and social demands with the regime; but 2) even if these demonstrations recede in the short term, the “fire under the ashes” of their quest for rights, justice, and freedoms will continue.

Watch Poland’s TVP World

In a 14-minute interview, I speak with Sascha Fahrbach about why change must come from within Iranian society, not from leaders imposed from abroad.

Drawing from my experience teaching and developing contacts in Iran, I consider how the opposition can be supported, from the opening of communications to the release of political prisoners.

Watch WION from 4:30

I summarize my arguments in an appearance on the Indian outlet’s CounterPoint.

The other guest, Trumpist activist Jennifer Ewing, makes an unexpected contribution. Highlighting her opposition to any US intervention, she illustrates that the Trump camp may be constrained by divisions among its supporters.