3 Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violated Estonia’s airspace last Friday

Sunday’s Coverage: Europe’s Stubb and Pavel — We Must Be Prepared to Fight Russia

UPDATE 1713 GMT:

Security forces of Ukraine’s neighbor Moldova have carried out 250 raids and detained 74 people over a Russia-backed plan to incite “mass riots” and destabilize the country during a Parliamentary election.

Moldovans will choose a new 101-seat legislature on Sunday.

Police said that the plot was “coordinated from the Russian Federation, through criminal elements”.

UPDATE 1701 GMT:

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has called on the UN Security Council to draw a firm line against further Russian violations of airspace, including the 19 drones that overflew Poland on September 10.

“If these were accidents, why not immediately acknowledge them and apologize?” he asked. “We have given Russia a pass in the past in such circumstances, but we have not heard any apologies, only lies.”

These breaches of airspace are suspect because they are an escalation of hybrid war which Russia has waged against the West for years…[such as] murders of politicians, journalists, human rights defenders and defectors; cyber-attacks against hospitals and financial institutions; arsons, including in Poland, UK and Lithuania; postal packages containing incendiary devices all over Europe, including Germany; and attacks on Ukrainian embassies, in addition to standard espionage and disinformation.

He emphasized, “This Council has a responsibility to send a clear message that such provocations will not be tolerated.” Then he addressed Moscow:

To the representatives of Russia, I have this to say: we know you don’t care for international law, and you are incapable of living in peace with your neighbours.

Your insane nationalism contains a lust for domination that will not cease until you realise that the age of empires is over and that your empire will not be rebuilt.

Every drone strike by the heroes of the armed forces of Ukraine, may God bless them, brings this day closer.

Sikorski added, “If another missile or aircraft enters our space without permission, deliberately or by mistake, and gets shot down and the wreckage falls on Nato territory, please don’t come here to whine about it. You have been warned.”

Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha followed up:

What’s next? Which other emergency meeting will we have to hold in the coming weeks? Who will be the next country dealing with Russia’s provocations?

None of these developments were accidental. No. Moscow does this on purpose.

A country occupying a permanent seat in this council is destroying international peace and security it is supposed to maintain.

UPDATE 1651 GMT:

Addressing the UN Security Council, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has taken apart Russia’s denial that three MiG-31 fighter jets flew in Estonia’s airspace last Friday.

Tsahkna presented “hard facts, based on solid evidence”, including a printout from Estonia’s air radar. Displaying close-up pictures of the Russian warplanes, he noted they all “carried missiles and were combat ready”.

So what I want to say that violation is crystal clear, and Russia is lying again, as it has been lied before several times.

We remember the occupation of Georgia in 2008, 2014 Crimea, 2022 aggression against Ukraine….So please don’t lie again. Hard evidence is here.

He concluded that the “dangerous behavior cannot be tolerated” as it would “set a very dangerous precedent encouraging further aggression, fueling regional and global tensions, and ultimately endangering global peace and security”.

US Ambassador Mike Waltz assured, “The United States and our allies will defend every inch of NATO territory. Russia must urgently stop such dangerous behavior.”

Washington expected Russia to “seek ways to de-escalate, not risk expansion”.

Russia either wants to escalate and pull more countries into this conflict with Ukraine, or doesn’t have full control of those who operate its fighter planes and drones.

So either scenario is very disconcerting.

European Union foreign policy head Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian Prime Minister, said, “There is one country present here in this room, which is actively seeking to undermine the values and principles the nations of the United Nations have committed upholding.”

She dismantled Russian claims that any overflights were accidental: “The recent violation of Estonian airspace is unprecedented in both scale and recklessness….Russia is testing European borders, probing our resolve, undermining the security of the whole of Europe.”

UPDATE 1437 GMT:

Fifty countries and the European Union have denounced the 12-minute violation of Estonian airspace by three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets last Friday.

Opening an emergency session of the UN Security Council, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna read out the statement condemning the “dangerous escalation” of “the fourth violation of Estonia’s airspace by Russia this year”.

We are here today because this incident concerns not only Estonia, but the entire international community….[It is] part of the wider pattern of Russian provocations against its neighbors.

Russia’s reckless actions represent not only a breach of international law, but also a destabilizing escalation that brings the entire region closer to conflict than at any time in recent years.

Tsahkna called on Russia to “cease, without delay, its war of aggression against Ukraine” and to “end all provocations and threats against its neigbhors’ sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

Danish foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen called out the “reckless and dangerous…escalations and provocations” trying to “intimidate countries to stop supporting Ukraine and to test our resolve”.

Let there be no doubt: I condemn this latest violation of Estonia sovereignty and territorial integrity by Russia. Our support for Estonia remains steadfast….

Russia clearly feels it can act with impunity in Ukraine, the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, the whole of eastern Europe.

Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis added, “Reckless acts of this kind are not new, but their successive recurrence indicates they are not mere coincidences. As the saying goes, once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, three is a pattern.”

The UK’s Yvette Cooper warned the Kremlin:

To President Putin, I say your reckless actions risk a direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Our alliance is defensive, but be under no illusion. We stand ready to take all steps necessary to defend NATO skies and NATO’s territory. We are vigilant.

We are resolute, and if we need to confront planes that are operating in NATO airspace without permission, then we will do so.

UPDATE 1014 GMT:

Ukraine has struck Russian Be-12 Chayka amphibious aircraft for the first time.

A special unit of Ukrainian military intelligence targeted the two warplanes in occupied Crimea on Sunday.

The Be-12 Chayka is equipped with systems for detecting and engaging submarines.

Ukrainian forces also struck four Russian Mi-8 helicopters, destroying three of them, and a radar station in Crimea.

UPDATE 0631 GMT:

At least three civilians have been murdered and at least three injured by Russia’s overnight strikes on the Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kyiv regions.

Air defenses downed 132 of 141 drones launched by Russia across Ukraine. The other nine UAVs struck seven locations.

The fatalities, including a 75-year-old woman, were in Zaporizhzhia. At least five bombs hit civilian and industrial infrastructure, setting fires that destroyed or damaged 15 apartment blocks, 10 houses, non-residential buildings, and vehicles.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted, referring to this week’s UN General Assembly session:

Russia accompanies one of the world’s highest-level annual diplomatic events with killings. That is precisely why it is so important for this diplomatic week to be productive. Action must be taken so that murder and war do not become routine. Real, powerful pressure on Russia is needed; new joint steps from everyone in the world who believes that international law must work again.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The UN Security Council will meet on Monday over Russia’s violations of other countries’ airspace beyond its invasion of Ukraine.

Estonia requested the emergency meeting to discuss the overflight of three Russian MiG-31s last Friday. The fighter jets remained in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes before they were driven away by Italian F-35s.

Russia also launched 19 drones over Poland on September 10, and an UAV violated Romanian airspace three days later. On Sunday, two German Eurofighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian Il-20M surveillance aircraft, which had switched off its transponders and ignored requests to make contact, in international airspace above the Baltic Sea.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said the overflights are “part of a broader pattern of escalation by Russia”: “This behavior requires an international response.”

NATO’s North Atlantic Council will meet on Tuesday to discuss the Russian violations.

On Sunday, Donald Trump finally joined the international condemnation of Moscow over the Estonian episode. Asking whether he would help defend European members if Russia escalated hostilities, the reality TV star told reporters: “Yeah, I would. I would.”

He delcared that he had been briefed over the situation: “We don’t like it.”

Trump’s reaction to the Russian drone incursion into Poland was that it “could have been a mistake”.