Tuesday’s Coverage: Russia Reviving Barter to Evade Sanctions

UPDATE 1720 GMT:

Shifting its position, Germany now endorses the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine’s day-to-day public services and governance.

In December 2022, the G7 froze approximately $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets, with around 2/3rds held by Euroclear in Belgium.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said last week that the European Union is exploring a reparations loan to Kyiv, funded by the cash balance of the frozen assets.

The issue is expected to be considers at a meeting of EU Finance Ministers in Copenhagen this week. A final decision is expected during the EU leaders’ summit on October 23-24.

UPDATE 1712 GMT:

Lithuanian authorities say they have identified 15 individuals, linked to Russian military intelligence, behind four attempted terrorist acts.

Parcels exploded at Leipzig Airport in Germany, in a DPD freight truck in Poland, and in a DHL warehouse near Birmingham, UK. The fourth failed to ignite.

Officials from nine countries conducted the investigation. They claim a 42-year-old Lithuanian citizen, working with accomplices, and sent the parcels from Lithuania’s capital Vilnius. Other citizens of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russia, and Ukraine were involved.

The coordination of the attacks was led by two Russian citizens “associated and having connections with the military intelligence services of the Russian Federation”.

UPDATE 1342 GMT:

Poland’s Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka has called on the European Union to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2026 “to cease financing Russia’s war machine”.

In a letter sent to counterparts in EU states, Motyka said “the current international circumstances, combined with the need to strengthen the resilience of European economies, require a common response”. The 2026 deadline would “establish a clear timeline, and demonstrate our resolve to achieve independence from oil supplies burdened with political and strategic risks”.

A “coordinated…compensatory mechanisms” would help with “a fair and orderly transition” for countries most affected, such as Hungary and Slovakia, “safeguarding access to alternative oil sources in the event of disruptions”.

The EU has already committed to ending purchases of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday, after a conversation with Donald Trump, that she will propose an accelerated timeline.

UPDATE 1257 GMT:

Yulia Navalnaya says new evidence established that her husband, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalany was poisoned in a Siberian prison in February 2024.

Russian authorities insisted that Navalny, condemned to more than 30 years, died of natural causes amid the harsh penal conditions, about 40 miles north of the Arctic Circle.

In 2020, he was poisoned during a flight across Russia. Falling into a coma, he recovered in Germany before returning home to pursue his political dissent.

UPDATE 1245 GMT:

Analysts have identified the “secret location” of Russia’s organization overseeing drone warfare.

Yauhen Lehalau, Mark Krutov, and Sergey Nemalevich of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty placed a main base of Rubicon at the Patriot Park Exhibition and Congress Center in Moscow’s western suburbs.

They were assisted — unwittingly — by a video posted by prominent Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov.

Rubicon is “Russia’s best technological unit,” says Maria Berlinska, head of the Ukrainian Aerial Reconnaissance Support Center, a nongovernment group that assists the military.

The organization was instrumental in the drone attacks that finally forced Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region in western Russia, following a cross-border incursion in August 2024.

UPDATE 0930 GMT:

Amid Russia’s UAV incursion into Poland as well as its invasion of Ukraine, the European Union is allocating billions of euros for a “drone wall” with technology that has been battle-tested in Ukraine.

The EU’s “drone alliance” with Kyiv is backed by €6 billion in financing to “transform Ukrainian ingenuity into battlefield advantage and into joint industrialization”, says European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Members of NATO’s eastern flank will receive nearly €100 billon in defense-related loans, out of a total of €150 billion raised against the EU’s shared budget.

“You can’t have one [frontline] state doing one thing on their border and another doing something different,” an EU official said. “Russia will just tailor their approach to our weaknesses.”

While the wall is established, NATO is setting up an air defense mission, Eastern Sentry, with fighter jets, ships, and reconnaissance systems deployed from Finland to Bulgaria.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers that output may have to be cut, amid Ukraine’s drone attacks on pipelines, ports, and refineries.

Transneft handles more than 80% of all oil extracted in Russia. In recent days, it has restricted storage capacity in the pipeline system, said “two industry sources close to Russian oil firms“. The monopoly told producers that it may have to accept less oil if infrastructure sustains more damage.

Transneft denied the report as “fake news”.

Ukraine has cut refining capacity by almost 20% in the past six weeks and damaged vital ports for the loading of oil. On Tuesday, Ukrainian military intelligence said it struck the Saratov oil refinery in southwest Russia.

On Sunday night, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky told the nation:

The most effective sanctions – the ones that work the fastest – are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots. To significantly restrict Russia’s oil industry is to significantly restrict the war.

Earlier this month Vladimir Putin finally acknowledged gasoline shortages across Russia, without mentioning the Ukrainian attacks.

Von der Leyen: EU to Speed Up Phase-Out of Russia Oil and Gas

President Ursula von der Leyen says the European Commission will propose acceleration of the phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports.

After a call with Donald Trump, Von der Leyen posted:

But Trump continued to provide cover for the Kremlin. Holding out on toughened US sanctions by declaring Europe must “stop buying oil from Russia”, he put the onus on Zelensky “to get going and make a deal”, ignoring Putin’s refusal of a ceasefire or a halt to Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians.

The European Union has sharply reduced its purchases of Russian oil and gas, and has set a goal of a total suspension by 2027. However, its efforts are being hindered by Hungary and Slovakia.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico are allies of both Trump and Putin.