Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at the G20 summit, Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019
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UPDATE, AUG 9:
I joined BBC Radio Scotland on Saturday morning, after confirmation of the Trump-Putin meeting next Friday in Alaska, to evaluate the talks.
Listen to Discussion from 1:10.06
I summarize the Kremlin’s attempt to turn Trump away from his sanctions threat and towards acceptance of Vladimir Putin’s demands, including Russian seizure of about 20% of Ukrainian territory; the rest of Ukraine being kept weak and demilitarized; and sanctioned lifted on Moscow.
I consider the maneuvers by Ukraine and its European supporters to block that outcome, anticipating Putin’s tactics and maintaining a focus on Russia attacks, including on Ukrainian civilians.
ORIGINAL ENTRY, AUG 8: There is widespread concern over Donald Trump’s forthcoming meeting with Vladimir Putin, given the reality TV star’s past affinity for — and reliance upon — the Russian leader. But the situation is far from desperate from Ukraine.
I spoke with RTE Radio 1 on Friday about the dynamics. I emphasize that, whereas the Kremlin was on offense in February amid direct US-Russia talks, it is now on the defensive amid Trump’s vague “deadline” to impose sanctions on Moscow and its trading partners.
I highlight Putin’s mistake in continued deadly attacks on Ukraine’s civilians, the maneuvers of Ukraine and its European partners, and the Kremlin’s difficulties amid gradual but costly advance on the battlefield, Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, and challenges for the Russian economy.
Danni Hewson, head of Financial Analysis at A.J. Bell, picks up the economic analysis.
This summit will be a good opportunity for Trump and Putin to discuss the critical state of nuclear arms control; and that might be a good segue to addressing Russia’s security concerns and the anti-Russia bias in Europe’s post-Cold War security order that has resulted in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Russia is operating on the assumption that it will be dealing with different governments in London, Paris, and Berlin by the year’s end – governments that will take a pragmatic approach with Moscow and treat Russia as an equal. These governments will have no choice as the US turns away from Ukraine and focuses on saving itself, much like Gorbachev and his reform-minded supporters’ efforts to save the USSR.