Donald Trump sits opposite Russian President Vladimir Putin during lunch at the Elysee Palace, Paris, France, November 11, 2018 (Guido Bergmann/Bundesregieriung/Getty)
EA on RTE and BBC: Why Ukraine Will Survive Trump-Putin Meeting
I joined Times Radio’s Trump Report on Monday to analyze how Ukraine and Europe can counter both the spectacle and the threat of Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.
I explain to host Maddie Hale that the Kremlin has played its “last card” with Trump, a photo opportunity with Putin, because it is on the defensive over slow advances on the battlefield, an inability to break Ukraine with aerial attacks on civilians, and the prospect of toughened sanctions on Moscow and its trading partners.
Putin hopes to get breathing space from the possible sanctions, already dropped by Trump in favor of the cameras in Alaska, and he will also press his ultimata for Ukraine’s surrender: seizure of more than 20% of the country, the rest of it weak and demilitarized, and an end to the economic restrictions on Russia.
So how are Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and European partners maneuvering to keep Trump from falling into Putin’s pocket?
And what will economic and trade warfare against Russia’s trade partners achieve in the long-term? India does not want to be told who it should and shouldn’t trade with. Is Washington overplaying its hand? What could be the consequences of this and for US-India relations? If Washington values its relationship with India, why would it bully the Indians in this way? Is this not an incentive for India to settle its differences with China and build a closer relations with Washington’s arch rival? How does this serve US interests? I don’t get it.
A ceasefire would give NATO the opportunity to re-supply Ukraine. So, why would Russia agree to it?
And re-arming of Ukraine and a Ukraine-NATO “association” are not realistic and sensible objectives. It’s not just the battlefield conditions in Ukraine. Russia is on the defensive in other areas: NATO threats against Kaliningrad, NATO’s ongoing regime change efforts in Georgia, Washington’s meddling in Armenia and Azerbaijan, NATO preparing Moldova to be the next sacrificial lamb, and medium and intermediate range missile deployments targeting Russia (now that there is no INF treaty). I think Putin is going to tell Trump to cool things down. The situation is really hairy. Professor Lucas may think that spheres of influence don’t matter to great powers in the 21st century, but they do. It’s the reason Russia is fighting.