Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky greets European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Kyiv, November 4, 2023

EA on TVP World: Trump-Europe, Tariffs, and Ukraine

Sunday’s Coverage: Kyiv Hits Targets Inside Russia

Map: Institute for the Study of War

UPDATE 1356 GMT:

Ukraine Presidential Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak has thanked Donald Trump after the reality TV star, again expressing frustration with Vladimir Putin, has threatened tougher sanctions on Russia within the next two weeks.

Alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland, Trump said:

I’ve spoken to President Putin a lot. I got along with him very well….We thought we had that settled numerous times, and then President Putin goes out and starts launching rockets into some city like Kyiv and kills a lot of people in a nursing home or whatever….

And I say that’s not the way to do it. So we’ll see what happens with that. I’m very disappointed. I’m disappointed in President Putin, very disappointed in him.

Asked to elaborate about the effect on his 50-day window for Putin to agree to a ceasefire and halt attacks on Ukraine’s civilians, Trump responded:

I’m going to make a new deadline, of about 10, 10 or 12 days from today. There’s no reason for waiting. It was 50 days, I wanted to be generous, but we just don’t see any progress being made.

UPDATE 1255 GMT:

The Russian airline Aeroflot has cancelled more than flights after pro-Ukraine hackers claimed a cyber-attack.

Aeroflot did not provide further details about the cause or the time needed for resolution. The cancelled flights were mostly within Russia but also included routes to the Belarusian capital Minsk and the Armenian capital Yerevan.

Departure boards at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport were filled with red notices of affected flights as many Russians were hoping to take their holidays.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said:

The information that we are reading in the public domain is quite alarming. The hacker threat is a threat that remains for all large companies providing services to the population.

We will, of course, clarify the information and wait for appropriate clarifications.

Prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation.

The hacking group Silent Crow said it had carried out the operation in cooperation with Belarusian group Cyber Partisans: “Glory to Ukraine! Long live Belarus!”.

Silent Crow has claimed responsibility for attacks this year on a Russian real estate database, a State telecoms company, a large insurer, the Moscow government’s IT department ,and the Russian office of the South Korean carmaker Kia.

The group said the latest cyber-attack was the outcome of a year-long operation that had penetrated Aeroflot’s network, destroying 7,000 servers and gaining control over the personal computers of employers including senior managers. It said it will soon start releasing “the personal data of all Russians who have ever flown Aeroflot”.

UPDATE 0852 GMT:

Ukraine Presidential Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak has commented on the latest Russian drone and missile strikes on civilians:

UPDATE 0725 GMT:

At least four civilians have been killed and 40 wounded by Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

Air defenses intercepted 309 of 324 drones. Two of four Kh-101 cruise missiles were downed, and three Kinzhal aero-ballistic missiles failed to reach their targets.

Three people were slain and 19 injured by a Russian drone strike on a bus with evacuating residents near the village of Yunakivka, in the Sumy region in northeast Ukraine near the border.

In the Donetsk region in the east, one civilian was murdered and four injured.

Casualties were reported in Kyiv (see 0632 GMT) and the Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson regions.

UPDATE 0705 GMT:

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has noted that the European Union will begin “massive” purchases of US supplies, under a framework deal with the Trump Administration, to replace Russian energy sources.

After meeting Donald Trump in Scotland, Von der Leyen pointed to American oil, liquefied natural gas, and nuclear fuel:

We will reduce tariffs and introduce a quota system between us. We will also expand our energy cooperation. Purchases of American energy will diversify our sources of supply and contribute to Europe’s energy security.

Under the framework, Trump’s threatened 30% tariff on EU goods will be reduced to 15%. The American duty on steel remains at 50%, above an unspecified quota, and on cars at 27.5%.

Von der Leyen said the EU still receives “too many” Russian hydrocarbons, and Europe intends to eliminate the supplies completely by 2027.

UPDATE 0650 GMT:

The Kyiv School of Economics assesses that Russia has depleted its vast stockpiles of Soviet-era weaponry.

The movement of arms from storage facilities to the frontline is down to levels before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Transports are on track to fall from a peak of 242,000 tons in 2022 to 119,000 tons in 2025.

North Korea is filling the gap for the Kremlin. Explosives from Pyongyang made up over half of all known shipments to Russian arsenals in 2024, and Iran supplied smaller volumes via the Caspian Sea. Machinery and components from China now “dominate” Russian imports, with logistics routed through a few large military-affiliated firms and hubs concentrated around Moscow.

The KSE notes that “critical chokepoints” for supplies to Russia are still unsanctioned:

Single firms dominate the military-industrial complex’s supplies of raw materials, reinforced concrete, and explosives yet are still considered civilian, evading Western sanctions….Credibly threatening secondary sanctions and halting all scientific and commercial ties with Russia would further weaken the MIC.

UPDATE 0632 GMT:

At least eight civilians have been injured, including a 3-year-old, by overnight Russian drone and missile attacks on Kyiv.

At least one victim is in critical condition.

A high-rise apartment building in the Darnytskyi district was damaged, with the blast setting fires and shattering windows from the 6th to the 11th floors.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Continuing his change of course, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky says it is “important” that his legislation over anti-corruption agencies is “adopted without delay”.

Zelensky has been under pressure at home and abroad since last week, when he signed Parliamentary amendments that put the Prosecutor General in charge of both the National Anti-Corruption Bureau and the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office. Critics said the Prosecutor General could shut down anti-corruption investigations, including of those in the President’s office.

Less than 48 hours later, Zelensky submitted a bill to Parliament that restores the procedural powers and guarantees of independence of the two agencies. The Verkhovna Rada is scheduled to interrupt its summer recess and convene in a special session on Friday.

However, protesters are still concerned that lawmakers may not show up.

On Sunday, Zelensky issued his statement after speaking with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, including “about the bill that guarantees the independence and effectiveness of Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies”. He proclaimed that they shared “the same vision” of the quick passage of the revised legislation.

Zelensky added, “I spelled out that Ukraine continues to implement the necessary reforms to receive financial assistance under the Ukraine Facility mechanism.” He said he had just signed laws on the reform of the National Agency of Ukraine for Finding, Tracing and Management of Assets Derived from Corruption and Other Crimes.

Von der Leyen posted:

Zelensky thanked the Commission President for the European Union’s adoption of its 18th sanctions package against Russia, particularly the reduction of the price cap on Moscow’s oil from $60 to $45 per barrel.

He added, “We also discussed the steps needed to open the first negotiation cluster on our EU membership. We will work on this as quickly as possible.”

Von der Leyen assured, “Ukraine can count on our support to deliver progress on its European path.”

Zelensky also spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, who posted:

We shared the conviction that what also sets Ukraine apart from Russia today is that, despite the war, it remains a vibrant democracy — and that it is determined to continue moving forward on its European path. In this context, we reaffirmed the importance of the fight against corruption, led by independent and fully effective institutions.