Co-published with The Conversation:
EA on ANews: Israel’s Isolation as World Recognizes State of Palestine
It is a bold initiative. In theory, it could end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power, and begin the implementation of a process for a State of Palestine.
But does it have any chance of success?
The Plan
On Tuesday, an international conference of 17 states, the European Union, and the Arab League presented their proposals “across the political, security, humanitarian, economic, legal, and strategic narrative dimensions” for “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation of the Two-State solution and the achievement of peace and security for all”.
The signatories include Turkey and the Middle Eastern states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan. Europe is represented by France, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain, and the UK. Indonesia is there for Asia; Senegal for Africa; and Brazil, Canada, and Mexico for the Americas.
The conference condemned attacks by any party and recalled that the taking of hostages is a violation of international law. For the first time, Arab states joined others in the demand: “Hamas must end its rule in Gaza and hands over its weapons.”
But the document is unsparing in its connection between a state of Palestine and an end to Israel’s assault on Gaza’s civilians: “Absent decisive measures toward the two-State solution and robust international guarantees, the conflict will deepen and regional peace will remain elusive.”
The signatories call for full Israeli withdrawal from the Strip Gaza to be governed by the Palestinian Authority with international support. Reconstruction will come through a plan of the Arab States and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, supported by an international fund. All States are encouraged to participate in the a Gaza Reconstruction and Recovery Conference in Cairo. Assurances will be given against the displacement of any Palestinian.
Security is to be provided by local security forces and a “temporary stabilization mission under the aegis of the United Nations”.
The International Momentum Over Gaza
The conference’s initiative should be placed within the context of better-known international declarations, spurred not only by Israel’s attacks but also its cutoff of aid and the threat of starvation for every Gazan.
France, the co-chair of the conference with Qatar, said on July 25 that it will recognize the State of Palestine at the UN General Assembly in September.
On Tuesday the UK, a member of the conference, made the same commitment unless Israel accepts an unconditional ceasefire and negotiations for two states. Canada followed on Wednesday.
They join the announcements in May 2024 by Spain, Ireland and Norway, three of the other European signatories. By next month, at least 149 of the UN’s 193 members will recognize Palestine.
The recognition is largely symbolic without a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from both Gaza and the West Bank, but it is essential symbolism.
For years, many European countries, Canada, Australia, and the US have said that recognition could not be declared if there was the prospect of Israel-Palestine negotiations. Now the sequence is reversed: recognition is necessary as pressure for a ceasefire and the necessary talks to ensure the security of both Israelis and Palestinians.
Israel accelerated that reversal at the start of March. It rejected any move to a Phase 2 of a ceasefire, ending a six-week halt in killing, and imposed the aid blockade.
The Netanyahu Government is continuing to hold out against the ceasefire, and its loud blame of Hamas is becoming harder to accept. Meanwhile, the images of the starvation in Gaza and warnings by doctors, humanitarian organizations, and the UN of an effective famine with the deaths of thousands can no longer be denied.
Saudi Arabia and Qatar, behind the scenes and through their embassies, have been encouraging European countries to make the jump to recognition. Their efforts in the conference are another front of that campaign.
Israel and the Trump Administration
In the short term, there is little prospect of the Netanyahu Government giving way with its mass killing, let alone entering talks for two states.
Reporting on the conference, the Times of Israel posted the partial headline, “Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt sign declaration calling for Hamas to disarm, end rule of Gaza”. Beyond a mention of “a United Nations conference on reviving the two-state solution”, its article never referred to the political and economic recommendations, let alone the conference’s emphatic insistence on a State of Palestine.
The summary did pointedly note, “Israel and its ally, the United States, did not take part in the meeting.”
Last week Hamas made yet another attempt for a ceasefire agreement. Sources said that the Gazan organization had accepted a limited Israeli military presence, as well as the release of hostages. At one point, the unnamed officials said the difference between the two sides was 200 meters: Hamas would allow a 1-km buffer zone on the border while Israel wanted 1.2 km.
But the Netanyahu Government pulled out of the talks and, supported by Donald Trump and his envoy Steve Witkoff, declared that Hamas had collapsed them. Israeli Ministers again spoke openly of long-term occupation and even annexation of Gaza.
Donald Trump, still hoping for his Nobel Peace Prize, has criticized the scenes of starvation in Gaza. But his Administration has joined Netanyahu in vitriolic denunciation of France and the UKover recognition of Palestine. Trump warned Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of more tariffs.
Once more, the Israeli Government will try to cover itself with public relations displays over aid. After its cutoff in March, Israel implemented the shambolic, deadly spectacle of the “Gaza Humanitarian Foundation” in which almost 1,000 Gazans have been killed trying to get the assistance and most have never been able to make the attempt.
Now Netanyahu and his officials have airdropped a few pallets of aid, less than a truck’s worth, in a highly-publicized operation. A small number of lorries with supplies from UN and humanitarian organization have crossed the border, but only after lengthy delays and with half still held up. There is no security for transport and delivery of the aid inside Gaza.
A Sacrifice for A State?
So the conference declaration is not relief for Gazans, let alone the sign of a State of Palestine.
Instead, it is yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation in its deadly quest to suppress Gaza and possibly occupy it.
After France’s announcement, the Netanyahu Government thundered, “Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy….A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel.”
But while still recognizing Hamas’ mass killing of October 7, 2023, most governments and their populations do not perceive Israel attacking Hamas officials and their Al-Qassem Brigade fighters.
They see the Netanyahu Government and its Israeli Defense Forces slaying and starving civilians who are not “Iranian proxies” and who do not wish to “annihilate Israel”.
Even in the US, where the Trump Administration is trying to crush sympathy for Palestine and Gazans in universities, NGOs, and the public sphere, opinion is shifting. In a Gallup poll released on Tuesday, only 32% of respondents supported Israel’s actions in Gaza — an all-time low — and 60% opposed them. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was viewed unfavorably by 52%, and favorably by only 29%.
Israel has lost its moment of “normalization“, exalted only two years ago, with Arab States including those in the Gulf. Its economic links are strained, and its oft-repeated claim to being the “Middle East’s only democracy” is blood-stained beyond recognition.
This will be of no comfort to Gazans facing death. But in the longer term, there is the prospect that this sacrifice will be the catalyst for the Palestine that disappeared in 1948.
