Iran’s Supreme Leader addresses an audience in Tehran, January 1, 2025

Iran’s Token Missile Strike Manipulates Trump Into Declaring “Ceasefire”

EA-Times Radio VideoCast: Trump Joins Israel’s War on Iran

EA-Byline Times Podcast: What’s Next After Trump’s Bombing of Iran?

UPDATE, JUNE 25:

I joined a panel on Ireland’s Tonight Show on Tuesday to evaluate the events leading to the tenuous ceasefire over Israel’s war on Iran, and what could happen next.

Hours after Donald Trump’s expletive-filled rant over Israeli breaking of the ceasefire, we assess how he was manipulated into the ceasefire by Iran and Qatar. Given his chaotic and unpredictable behavior, we consider whether he will return to war and if he can be considered a reliable ally.

We also discuss the status of Ireland’s Occupied Territories Bill, which would block imports of Israeli goods from the Palestinian West Bank.

Listen to the full episode:

Three extracts from the discussion:

And the full chat about the Occupied Territories Bill:

UPDATE 1756 GMT:

With Israel threatening to break the ceasefire on Tuesday morning, I spoke with India’s Firstpost about the situation and how to evaluate the next developments.

Anticipating the Israeli decision under pressure from Donald Trump to strike only one target, a radar northeast of Tehran, I evaluate:

If this is a limited attack, then perhaps the Iranians say that we can step back.

If this is a large attack on military and civilian targets, then it points to Israel not wanting this ceasefire but wanting to break the Iranian leadership.

UPDATE, 1730 GMT:

I joined Dublin NewsTalk’s Pat Kenny Show for a 14-minute deep dive into how Iran and Qatar maneuvered Donald Trump into announcing a “ceasefire” — and whether Israel’s Netanyahu Government will abide by it.

Listen from 6:31:

I begin with the flutter where Netanyahu, citing two Iranian ballistic missiles fired on northern Israel, almost broke the ceasefire in its first hours.

(The interview was conducted before Trump’s expletive-filled outburst at Israel forced Netanyahu to limit strikes inside Iran to a single target.)

Then I go into detail of the Iran-Qatar scheme with Tehran’s token missile strike on the US airbase near Doha and the message to the Trump Administration that Iran was ready to de-escalate.

Just as Trump had been manipulated by Israel into joining their war only 48 hours earlier with those “bunker buster” and missile strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Iranians and Qataris were abile to manipulate him into declaring a ceasefire which may or may not hold.

I make clear that Trump’s obsession with getting a Nobel Peace Prize has driven him to push the ceasefire and to criticize the Israelis.

Trump has got to get back to playing peacemaker to get that ultimate award that he wants because Barack Obama got it.

Qatar knows that. The Iranians know that. Indeed, the Israelis know it.

We are in an era where diplomacy does not end wars. We are in an era where military strength does not determine if we end wars.

We are in an era where one man’s ego may determine if we end wars.

I also pick up on the tragedy of Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza, which may have a revived impetus with the end of the war on Iran.

I explain in detail why it is a falsehood that Israel and the US have “destroyed” Iran’s nuclear program. I look at Russia’s position. And I return to how the egos of three men — Trump, Netanyahu, and Iran’s Supreme Leader — are shaping this confrontation.

UPDATE 1850 GMT:

In a brief interview with the hard-right outlet GB “News”, I take apart Donald Trump’s deception that Iran’s nuclear program has been “destroyed”.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: I joined India’s WION on Monday night, as Donald Trump was posting his series of tweets proclaiming a “ceasefire” in Israel’s war on Iran.

I anticipated Tehran’s maneuver, highlighting that its 14 missiles on the al-Udeid airbase and American personal in Qatar was a “token” retaliation. That offered a possible “off-ramp” for the war, if Iran and Qatar could persuade Trump to distance himself from the Israeli assault.

There’s a combination of Iran’s token attack, notifying Qatar who notified the Americans, and Trump’s response thanking them while continuing to put out the unverified claim that Tehran’s nuclear program has been “totally obliterated”.

If Trump can sell that to his supporters, because he is continuing to face domestic difficulties over the US escalation, then yes, we have a space where the Gulf States and Europe can encourage a path back to negotiations.

Watch from 2:53: