Mustafa al-Dabbagh contributed material to this analysis
As the dust settles on Donald Trump’s re-election in the US, the global political situation appears more fraught than ever.
The UK’s Labour Government is struggling to capitalize on its historic victory. Civil society is challenged by hard-right leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, with others like France’s Marine Le Pen hoping to claim power, and the divisive policies of those like India’s Narenda Modi. There are newcomers, posing as “populists”, such as Argentina’s Javier Milei.
2024 will be remembered as the year when fear, not hope, shaped electoral outcomes. Voters rejected incumbency, punished establishment parties, or reluctantly returned opposition parties under the shadow of disillusionment. Caampaigns of anxiety and agitation dominated the political narrative. They did not just exploit fear — they thrived on it.
These echo the UK’s Brexit campaign in 2016, which relied on fear and division to push voters into departure from Europe. Leavers painted the European Union as an existential threat to British sovereignty while demonising migrants as a drain on resources and the source of society’s upheaval.
The dark portrayal resonated with voters, alienated by globalization, and felt a loss of control over their future. They were drawn to the image of a declining UK under siege by external forces.
Eight years later, France’s Le Pen whips up a nationalism based on fears around immigration and EU overreach. Germany’s coalition government is sagging into elections in early 2025, as the hard-right AfD picks up support, especially in the east of the country.
In the US, Democrats framed Trump’s re-election bid as an existential threat to democracy. But the Trumpist countered with its fear-baiting over immigration, crime, and “woke culture”, depicting painting an America teetering on collapse. In India, Modi’s BJP used polarizing rhetoric to stoke fears about Muslims, framing them as a threat to the nation’s cultural identity and security.
Selling Fear
Fear is easier to sell than hope when institutions appear to be failing.
Economic disillusionment is rooted in the 2008 financial crisis. While the Great Recession’s immediate effects were mitigated in many countries, the long-term consequences — stagnating wages, rising inequality, and diminished social mobility — have eroded public trust in centrist politics.
In the late 1990s, leaders like US President Bill Clinton and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair pioneered the ‘third way”, seeking to reconcile center-right and center-left politics by synthesizing economically liberal and social democratic policies. But the promises made by globalization and neo-liberalism were not fulfilled for vast swathes of the population. Austerity measures and stagnation have continued to depress living standards.
This failure has been particularly acute for the left and center-left. Once champions of social progress, many retreated into the caution of defending the status quo rather than presenting transformative solutions. Even when they claimed victories, as in UK Labour’s triumph in 2024, the message was of competence and stability rather than of the inspiration of change.
If the financial crash sowed the seeds of fear, the rise of social media cultivated them. Sensational content amplified narratives provoking reactions of fright and anger. Fake news, bot-driven campaigns, and echo chambers undermined the credibility of traditional media, leaving voters adrift. Taking over Twitter, Elon Musk promoted polarization, with distortion of information and citizens are increasingly entrenched in their beliefs.
Anxieties were fed by stigmatizing progressive social change, portraying it as “woke culture”. Right-wing leaders weaponized the backlash, framing their opponents as elitists imposing radical social norms. Donald Trump’s campaign positioned itself as a bulwark against “woke tyranny”.
Reclaiming Hope?
The dominance of fear in 2024’s elections contrasts sharply with the hopeful campaigns of the not-so-distant past. Barack Obama’s “Yes We Can” in 2008 and Tony Blair’s “Things Can Only Get Better” in 1997 were rallying cries for optimism and progress.
These campaigns succeeded because they offered voters a vision of a better future. Today, they seem rare if not extinct. Fear-based campaigns oversimplify complex issues, reducing debates to binary choices. The “our way or the highway” deepens societal divides, making it harder to build consensus on urgent challenges like climate action, social justice, and economic reform.
The fear-driven politics both establishes and benefits from a self-perpetuating cycle of disillusionment. When leaders fail to deliver on promises — whether of protection or progress — voters become more cynical, paving the way for more extreme candidates.
To break the cycle, political discourse must be recalibrated. Leaders must find ways to acknowledge voters’ anxieties without exploiting them. This means offering practical, realistic solutions while also articulating a hopeful vision for the future.
A cautious approach, as in the UK in 2024, may bring centrists back to power. However, long-term success depends on the ability to inspire. Parties must address the root causes of discontent —such as inequality, regional disparities, and strains on public services and infrastructure— while presenting a compelling vision for a fairer, greener, and more inclusive country. Transparency is to be embraced, disinformation to be tackled, and the common good to be prioritized over short-term gains.
Fear may have defined 2024, but history shows that hope remains a potent force. To reclaim it, political leaders must dare to dream and disrupt — and to inspire their citizens to dream with them.
