Vice President Kamala Harris and Beyoncé at a campaign rally in Houston, Texas, October 25, 2024, Houston (Annie Mulligan/AP)
US Election 2024: Trump’s Hate-Filled New York Rally “Shook Me To My Core”
US Election 2024: What Would A Trump Victory Mean For The World?
Standing alongside Vice President and Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris, Beyoncé told the enthusiastic crowd, “My children and all of our children live in a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided.”
The singer’s appearance was electrifying for the campaign. The issue of reproductive bodies could be the difference in the November 5 vote.
But what have been most significant was the venue:
Beyoncé’s hometown of Houston, Texas.
Polls still show Harris trailing Donald Trump in Texas by 5%-6%. Only a massive Democratic turnout could pull off an upset, it appears.
But the decision to invest in a late-campaign rally in the heart of Texas, rather than in one of the vital seven “swing states” tipped off a wider perception: maybe not this time, but soon Texas will be a state where Democrats could be ascendant not only for the Presidency but for national and state legislatures.
A Senate Upset?
The Democrats have not won Texas in a Presidential election since 1976 when Jimmy Carter prevailed. They have not triumphed in a Senate election since Lloyd Bentsen retained office in 1988.
However, there has a been a resurgence in the Democratic vote in Texas since 2016 when a 7-point swing for Hillary Clinton brought the Presidential margin down to 9%. In the 2018 Senate race, Beto O’Rourke almost removed incumbent Ted Cruz. Two years later, Joe Biden was only 5.5% shy of Donald Trump.
This year the Democrats are better positioned in the Senate race rather the Presidential contest. Rep. Colin Allred, a civil rights lawyer and retired American football player, is challenging Cruz.
The Republican has had an average polling lead of four points, but an October 23 survey by Emerson College put the margin at only 1%. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont made a campaign trip to proclaim, “Texas has the potential to become a progressive state. It will make all the difference in the world if Colin is elected to the Senate.”
With the Democrats holding only a 51-49 margin in the Senate and almost certain to lose West Virginia and Montana, an Allred upset combined with a Harris Presidential win could be the Hail Mary preserving their control of the upper chamber. That in turn would be vital for the legislative agenda of the Harris Administration, given the political climate of partisanship and polarization.
The Texas Triangle
Given the widening gap between urban and rural voters. The key to Democratic resurgence in Texas to pursue their advantage in higher-populated counties.
In 2020, Biden only won 22 out of 254 counties. However, among them were the five most populated cities and counties. They included Houston’s Harris County, third in the US for residents, and other cities such as San Antonio, Dallas, Austin, and Fort Worth.
The five most populated counties in this “Texas Triangle” have 44% of the state’s population. In 2020, 53.5% of the Democrat vote came from the area, compared to 32% for the GOP.
Between 2000 and 2020 there has been a 30% swing to the Democrats in the Triangle. So where George W. Bush won all five counties in 2000, Biden claimed all of them 20 years later with a margin of 20%.
Harris and Allred will need to accelerate this trend. The Congressman preformed strongly in a debate with Cruz and has won the endorsement of Texas’ largest newspaper, The Dallas Morning News.
If Not This Time, Then Next Time?
Where the GOP was winning statewide races by more than 15 or even 20 points, Texas could be on its way to swing state status.
With the second-youngest population in the US, a rapidly-changing age and ethnic demographic, and the surge in urban areas, Texas’ 40 Electoral College votes as well as the two Senate seats and 38 in the House may soon be in the balance.
Beyoncé appealed to the Houston crowd, “Imagine our daughters growing up, seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations.”
Whether that ceiling is broken in Texas is vital for women — and it could soon be the difference in the US Government.
